A decision-theoretic approach for segmental classification

This paper is concerned with statistical methods for the segmental classification of linear sequence data where the task is to segment and classify the data according to an underlying hidden discrete state sequence. Such analysis is commonplace in the empirical sciences including genomics, finance and speech processing. In particular, we are interested in answering the following question: given data $y$ and a statistical model $\pi(x,y)$ of the hidden states $x$, what should we report as the prediction $\hat{x}$ under the posterior distribution $\pi (x|y)$? That is, how should you make a prediction of the underlying states? We demonstrate that traditional approaches such as reporting the most probable state sequence or most probable set of marginal predictions can give undesirable classification artefacts and offer limited control over the properties of the prediction. We propose a decision theoretic approach using a novel class of Markov loss functions and report $\hat{x}$ via the principle of minimum expected loss (maximum expected utility). We demonstrate that the sequence of minimum expected loss under the Markov loss function can be enumerated exactly using dynamic programming methods and that it offers flexibility and performance improvements over existing techniques. The result is generic and applicable to any probabilistic model on a sequence, such as Hidden Markov models, change point or product partition models.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS657 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Bayesian Hidden Markov Modeling of Array CGH Data

Genomic alterations have been linked to the development and progression of cancer. The technique of Comparative Genomic Hybridization (CGH) yields data consisting of fluorescence intensity ratios of test and reference DNA samples. The intensity ratios provide information about the number of copies in DNA. Practical issues such as the contamination of tumor cells in tissue specimens and normalization errors necessitate the use of statistics for learning about the genomic alterations from array-CGH data. As increasing amounts of array CGH data become available, there is a growing need for automated algorithms for characterizing genomic profiles. Specifically, there is a need for algorithms that can identify gains and losses in the number of copies based on statistical considerations, rather than merely detect trends in the data. We adopt a Bayesian approach, relying on the hidden Markov model to account for the inherent dependence in the intensity ratios. Posterior inferences are made about gains and losses in copy number. Localized amplifications (associated with oncogene mutations) and deletions (associated with mutations of tumor suppressors) are identified using posterior probabilities. Global trends such as extended regions of altered copy number are detected. Since the posterior distribution is analytically intractable, we implement a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm for efficient simulation-based inference. Publicly available data on pancreatic adenocarcinoma, glioblastoma multiforme and breast cancer are analyzed, and comparisons are made with some widely-used algorithms to illustrate the reliability and success of the technique

An integrated Bayesian analysis of LOH and copy number data

BACKGROUND Cancer and other disorders are due to genomic lesions. SNP-microarrays are able to measure simultaneously both genotype and copy number (CN) at several Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) along the genome. CN is defined as the number of DNA copies, and the normal is two, since we have two copies of each chromosome. The genotype of a SNP is the status given by the nucleotides (alleles) which are present on the two copies of DNA. It is defined homozygous or heterozygous if the two alleles are the same or if they differ, respectively. Loss of heterozygosity (LOH) is the loss of the heterozygous status due to genomic events. Combining CN and LOH data, it is possible to better identify different types of genomic aberrations. For example, a long sequence of homozygous SNPs might be caused by either the physical loss of one copy or a uniparental disomy event (UPD), i.e. each SNP has two identical nucleotides both derived from only one parent. In this situation, the knowledge of the CN can help in distinguishing between these two events. RESULTS To better identify genomic aberrations, we propose a method (called gBPCR) which infers the type of aberration occurred, taking into account all the possible influence in the microarray detection of the homozygosity status of the SNPs, resulting from an altered CN level. Namely, we model the distributions of the detected genotype, given a specific genomic alteration and we estimate the parameters involved on public reference datasets. The estimation is performed similarly to the modified Bayesian Piecewise Constant Regression, but with improved estimators for the detection of the breakpoints.Using artificial and real data, we evaluate the quality of the estimation of gBPCR and we also show that it outperforms other well-known methods for LOH estimation. CONCLUSIONS We propose a method (gBPCR) for the estimation of both LOH and CN aberrations, improving their estimation by integrating both types of data and accounting for their relationships. Moreover, gBPCR performed very well in comparison with other methods for LOH estimation and the estimated CN lesions on real data have been validated with another technique.This work was supported by Swiss National Science Foundation (grants 205321-112430, 205320-121886/1); Oncosuisse grants OCS-1939-8-2006 and OCS - 02296-08-2008; Cantone Ticino ("Computational life science/Ticino in rete” program); Fondazione per la Ricerca e la Cura sui Linfomi (Lugano, Switzerland)

Learning mutational graphs of individual tumour evolution from single-cell and multi-region sequencing data

Background. A large number of algorithms is being developed to reconstruct evolutionary models of individual tumours from genome sequencing data. Most methods can analyze multiple samples collected either through bulk multi-region sequencing experiments or the sequencing of individual cancer cells. However, rarely the same method can support both data types. Results. We introduce TRaIT, a computational framework to infer mutational graphs that model the accumulation of multiple types of somatic alterations driving tumour evolution. Compared to other tools, TRaIT supports multi-region and single-cell sequencing data within the same statistical framework, and delivers expressive models that capture many complex evolutionary phenomena. TRaIT improves accuracy, robustness to data-specific errors and computational complexity compared to competing methods. Conclusions. We show that the application of TRaIT to single-cell and multi-region cancer datasets can produce accurate and reliable models of single-tumour evolution, quantify the extent of intra-tumour heterogeneity and generate new testable experimental hypotheses

R-Gada: a fast and flexible pipeline for copy number analysis in association studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using Copy Number Variation (CNV) are becoming a central focus of genetic research. CNVs have successfully provided target genome regions for some disease conditions where simple genetic variation (i.e., SNPs) has previously failed to provide a clear association.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here we present a new R package, that integrates: (i) data import from most common formats of Affymetrix, Illumina and aCGH arrays; (ii) a fast and accurate segmentation algorithm to call CNVs based on Genome Alteration Detection Analysis (GADA); and (iii) functions for displaying and exporting the Copy Number calls, identification of recurrent CNVs, multivariate analysis of population structure, and tools for performing association studies. Using a large dataset containing 270 HapMap individuals (Affymetrix Human SNP Array 6.0 Sample Dataset) we demonstrate a flexible pipeline implemented with the package. It requires less than one minute per sample (3 million probe arrays) on a single core computer, and provides a flexible parallelization for very large datasets. Case-control data were generated from the HapMap dataset to demonstrate a GWAS analysis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The package provides the tools for creating a complete integrated pipeline from data normalization to statistical association. It can effciently handle a massive volume of data consisting of millions of genetic markers and hundreds or thousands of samples with very accurate results.</p