156 research outputs found
Bayesian model predictive control: Efficient model exploration and regret bounds using posterior sampling
Tight performance specifications in combination with operational constraints
make model predictive control (MPC) the method of choice in various industries.
As the performance of an MPC controller depends on a sufficiently accurate
objective and prediction model of the process, a significant effort in the MPC
design procedure is dedicated to modeling and identification. Driven by the
increasing amount of available system data and advances in the field of machine
learning, data-driven MPC techniques have been developed to facilitate the MPC
controller design. While these methods are able to leverage available data,
they typically do not provide principled mechanisms to automatically trade off
exploitation of available data and exploration to improve and update the
objective and prediction model. To this end, we present a learning-based MPC
formulation using posterior sampling techniques, which provides finite-time
regret bounds on the learning performance while being simple to implement using
off-the-shelf MPC software and algorithms. The performance analysis of the
method is based on posterior sampling theory and its practical efficiency is
illustrated using a numerical example of a highly nonlinear dynamical
car-trailer system
An Adversarial Interpretation of Information-Theoretic Bounded Rationality
Recently, there has been a growing interest in modeling planning with
information constraints. Accordingly, an agent maximizes a regularized expected
utility known as the free energy, where the regularizer is given by the
information divergence from a prior to a posterior policy. While this approach
can be justified in various ways, including from statistical mechanics and
information theory, it is still unclear how it relates to decision-making
against adversarial environments. This connection has previously been suggested
in work relating the free energy to risk-sensitive control and to extensive
form games. Here, we show that a single-agent free energy optimization is
equivalent to a game between the agent and an imaginary adversary. The
adversary can, by paying an exponential penalty, generate costs that diminish
the decision maker's payoffs. It turns out that the optimal strategy of the
adversary consists in choosing costs so as to render the decision maker
indifferent among its choices, which is a definining property of a Nash
equilibrium, thus tightening the connection between free energy optimization
and game theory.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Proceedings of AAAI-1
Optimal Reinforcement Learning for Gaussian Systems
The exploration-exploitation trade-off is among the central challenges of
reinforcement learning. The optimal Bayesian solution is intractable in
general. This paper studies to what extent analytic statements about optimal
learning are possible if all beliefs are Gaussian processes. A first order
approximation of learning of both loss and dynamics, for nonlinear,
time-varying systems in continuous time and space, subject to a relatively weak
restriction on the dynamics, is described by an infinite-dimensional partial
differential equation. An approximate finite-dimensional projection gives an
impression for how this result may be helpful.Comment: final pre-conference version of this NIPS 2011 paper. Once again,
please note some nontrivial changes to exposition and interpretation of the
results, in particular in Equation (9) and Eqs. 11-14. The algorithm and
results have remained the same, but their theoretical interpretation has
change
Further Optimal Regret Bounds for Thompson Sampling
Thompson Sampling is one of the oldest heuristics for multi-armed bandit
problems. It is a randomized algorithm based on Bayesian ideas, and has
recently generated significant interest after several studies demonstrated it
to have better empirical performance compared to the state of the art methods.
In this paper, we provide a novel regret analysis for Thompson Sampling that
simultaneously proves both the optimal problem-dependent bound of
and the
first near-optimal problem-independent bound of on the
expected regret of this algorithm. Our near-optimal problem-independent bound
solves a COLT 2012 open problem of Chapelle and Li. The optimal
problem-dependent regret bound for this problem was first proven recently by
Kaufmann et al. [ALT 2012]. Our novel martingale-based analysis techniques are
conceptually simple, easily extend to distributions other than the Beta
distribution, and also extend to the more general contextual bandits setting
[Manuscript, Agrawal and Goyal, 2012].Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1111.179
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