Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?

Latin America has a rich history of financial crises. However, it was relatively unharmed by the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates why, and in particular the role of commodity prices and its institutional framework - in line with the fourth generation financial crisis model. We set up Early Warning Systems (EWS) for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. These consist of an ordered logit model for currency crises for the period 1990-2007 with a dynamic factor model to deal with the large number of explanatory variables. We present forecasts for the period 2008-2009. We find that international indicators play an important role in explaining currency crises in Mexico, while banking indicators and commodities explain the currency crisis in Argentina and Brazil. Furthermore, debt and domestic economy indicators are relevant for Argentina and Mexico. Finally, we observe that currency crises in all three countries are related to institutional indicators. For none of the countries the Early Warning System would have issued an early warning for the GFC.Financial crises, Early Warning Systems, Latin America, dynamic factor models, ordered logit model,

Growing out of the Crisis through Prudential Regulation of Large Financial Institutions and Redefined Government Responsibilities

I consider in this paper the challenges and pitfalls we must face to grow out for good of the recent and latent financial crisis and economic recession. I consider a brief history of the crisis and insist on the loss of confidence within the banking and financial sector, which propagated later to the real sector. I discuss ways to rebuild confidence and move out of a stable bad economic equilibrium, due in part to inefficiently designed bonus systems. Considering data on gross job creation and loss in the private sector, I challenge the sorcerer’s apprentices in reforming capitalism and I recall the role of creative destruction. I show that government deficits and economic growth are not good friends and I offer a reference to the Canadian experience of the two decades 1985-2005. Finally, I discuss fiscal reforms and renewed roles for governmental and competitive sectors in generating a more prosperous economy as well as some specific challenges we are facing today, in particular to redesign the regulatory framework of the financial sector Je considère ici certains défis et écueils auxquels nous devons faire face pour sortir pour de bon des récentes et rampantes crise financière et récession économique. Je considère un bref historique de la crise et insiste sur la perte de confiance dans le secteur bancaire et financier, qui s’est propagé plus tard au secteur réel. Je discute des moyens de rétablir la confiance et de se sortir d'un équilibre économique mauvais mais stable, dû en partie à des systèmes incitatifs mal conçus. Considérant les données sur la création et la perte brutes d'emplois dans le secteur privé, je nous mets en garde contre les apprentis-sorciers en mal de réformer le capitalisme et je rappelle le rôle important et trop souvent oublié de la destruction créatrice. Je montre que les déficits publics et la croissance économique ne sont pas de bons comparses donnant en référence l'expérience canadienne des deux décennies 1985-2005. Enfin, je discute des réformes fiscales et des rôles renouvelés des secteurs gouvernemental et concurrentiel dans la génération d’une économie plus prospère, ainsi que certains défis spécifiques auxquels nous sommes confrontés aujourd'hui.Financial crisis, confidence, creative destruction, fiscal reforms, prudential regulation, competitive social-democracy., Crise financière, confiance, destruction créatrice, réforme fiscale, réglementation prudentielle, social-démocratie concurrentielle

The Recent Evolution of Retirement Patterns in Canada

Using data from three waves of the General Social Survey on retirement and older workers (1994, 2002 and 2007), we document the evolution of retirement patterns over the last three decades. We combined the analysis of retirement ages of actual retirees with data on expected retirement ages of current workers to create a longer perspective on changes in retirement behaviour in Canada. We also investigate trends in work after retirement. Our findings are in line with findings from other countries. There is an upward trend in retirement ages which likely started around year 2000 for cohorts born after 1945. This trend contrasts with the slow decline in retirement ages observed prior to the end of the millennium. While the downward trend was likely due to factors such as the offering of early retirement programs in private firms, the upward trend is likely to be caused by a wider variety of sources, including better health, less pervasive defined benefit pensions and in general less generous pensions.retirement, pensions, Canada

Cinema and the Production of Spatial Memories: Fifty Years of Representing 1960s Montreal in Quebecois Films

Since the end of the 20th century, cinema has been widely recognized as a meaningful source of information for studying geographic phenomena including urban development. This thesis aims to further explore the potential of cinema to produce our spatial memories. The research question that structures this project is: how does the cinematographic representation of a certain place during a certain period evolve over time? This question is addressed through the study of the cinematographic representation of 1960s Montreal over time. Seven films released between 1964 and 2014 (Le chat dans le sac (1964), Entre la mer et l’eau douce (1967), Yesterday (1981), Emporte-Moi (1999), Monica la mitraille (2004), C.R.A.Z.Y. (2005), Corbo (2014)) were selected for study since they can all be identified as unfolding in Montreal of the 1960s. Each of these films have then been evaluated according to four main criteria: politics, religion, urban mobility and urban development. This analysis first shows only a marginal interest in Québec cinema of the last 50 years for revisiting the Quiet Revolution despite the importance of this period in modern Québec history. Nevertheless, all seven of the films identified but one (i.e. C.R.A.Z.Y.) directly address the political tensions that were at stake during this period. Religion was the second-most common theme identified in these movies. Even though it was not as prevalent as politics, religious issues recurred throughout all the movies studied. The other two topics under study appeared more marginally in the selected movies, although some trends began to emerge from the study. For instance, the action of the movies released after 2000 took place in the suburbs of Montréal, while the earlier movies barely ventured beyond the downtown core, illustrating the growing importance given to the development of the suburban in recent decades. This centrifugal movement was not accompanied with a change of transportation since cars remained the main way of transportation throughout the seven studied movies. Overall this project did not identify radical changes in the way the cinematographic representation of Montréal of the 1960s has evolved over the last fifty years, but it contributed to the development of a methodology dedicated to further examining how cinema participates in the reshaping of our collective spatial memories

Quebec: A History of Culture and Politics:

In discovering the uniqueness of Quebec, its culture and politics, this paper follows an historical timeline of five sections: Historical Review; The Great Darkness; The Quiet Revolution, Modernity and Globalization; and Conclusion.Not peer reviewedSeigneurial system, Roman Catholic Church, habitant, Upper and Lower Canada, francophone, Durham report, Groupe Automatiste, Asbestos Strike, The Quiet Revolution, Bill 101, fertility, birthrate, immigratio

Evaluation of the Dawson College shooting psychological intervention: moving toward a multimodal extensive plan

In 2006, following the shooting at Dawson College, the authorities implemented an intervention plan. This provided an opportunity to analyze the responses to services offered, and afforded a learning opportunity, which led to the proposal of an extensive multimodal short- and long-term psychological plan for future needs. Both quantitative and qualitative data were gathered 18 months after the event, involving the participation of 948 students and staff. Mental health problems and the perception of services offered after the shooting were investigated, using standardized measures. Second, focus groups and individual interviews were conducted among a subgroup of participants (support team members; teachers and employees; students and parents) and permitted to gather data on services received and services required. Individual report of events, the extent of psychological impact and services offered and received were analyzed in terms of the following dimensions: intervention philosophy, training, ongoing offer of services and finally, detection and outreach. A significant incidence of disorders and a high rate of exacerbation of preexisting mental disorders were observed within the 18 months following the shooting. Postimmediate and short-term intervention appeared adequate, but the long-term collective vision toward community support and availability of mental health services were lacking. Lessons learned from this evaluation and other school shootings suggest that preparedness and long-term community responses are often overlooked. A multimodal extensive plan is proposed based on a theoretical model from which interventions strategies could be drawn