Vital Records of Cumberland, Maine 1701-1892

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Contagion of financial crises across neighbors and trade partners

In this dissertation, we build different models to investigate contagion of currency, banking and sovereign debt crises across neighbor countries and trade partners by using Binary Logit Panel Data. Our analyses cover the periods 1970 – 2018 and 1800 – 2018 for more than 60 countries all around the world and specific control variables that are chosen according to the nature of each crisis. We have found that during the period of 1970 – 2018 contagion of currency crises has the lowest impact (average 63.5%) on the probability of currency crises happening in a country, while contagion of sovereign debt crises has the highest impact (average 187.5%) on the probability of sovereign debt crises happening in a country considering both results regarding neighbors and trade partners. On a regional basis, our results have shown that countries in Africa are only affected by the contagion of currency crises from their neighbor countries; in Europe, countries are affected by the contagion of currency and banking crises across both neighbors and trade partners; and in America, countries are also affected by the contagion of all 3 crises across their neighbors but they are not affected by the contagion of banking crises across their trade partners. Regarding different income levels our results have shown that low income level countries are not affected by contagion of any type of crises; while lower-middle income level countries are affected by all types of contagion of financial crises.Nesta dissertação construimos diferentes modelos com o intuito de investigar o contágio das crises monetária, bancária e de divída soberana entre países vizinhos e parceiros comerciais, usando modelos logísticos binários para dados em painel. A nossa análise cobre os períodos 1970 – 2018 e 1800 – 2018 para mais de 60 países do mundo e variáveis de controlo específicas, que são escolhidas de acordo com a natureza da crise. Concluímos que durante o período de 1970 – 2018 o contágio em crises monetárias teve o menor impacto (média de 63,5%) na probabilidade de ocorrer num país, enquanto que em crises de divída soberana teve o maior impacto (média de 187,5%) na probabilidade de ocorrer, ambos considerando países vizinhos ou parceiros comerciais. A nível regional, os resultados mostram que os países em Africa são apenas afectados pelo contágio em crises monetárias de países vizinhos; na Europa pelo contágio das crises monetárias e bancárias entre países vizinhos ou parceiros comerciais; e na America pelo contágio das três crises entre países vizinhos, mas não são pelo contágio das crises bancárias entre países parceiros comerciais. Relativamente a diferentes níveis de rendimento, os resultados mostram que países de baixo rendimento não são afectados pelo contágio de qualquer crise, enquanto que os de médio rendimento são afectados pelo contágio de todas as crises financeiras

European goods market integration in the very long run: from the Black Death to the First World War

The paper examines price convergence and increases in the efficiency of wheat markets across Europe from the mid-fourteenth to the early twentieth century. The analysis is based on a new data set of prices from more than 500 markets. Unlike previous research, we find that convergence was a predominantly pre-modern phenomenon. It started in the late fifteenth and reached a first high point in the early seventeenth century - a level of integration that was surpassed only in the nineteenth century. In terms of market integration, the ‘little divergence’ between parts of North-Western Europe and the rest of the continent appears since about 1600. Long-term improvements in market efficiency began in the early sixteenth century, with advances being temporarily as uneven as in price convergence. We trace this to uneven institutional change and the non-synchronous spread of modern media and systems of information transmission that affected the ability of merchants to react to news

European goods market integration in the very long run: from the Black Death to the First World War

The paper examines price convergence and increases in the efficiency of wheat markets across Europe from the mid-fourteenth to the early twentieth century. The analysis is based on a new data set of prices from more than 500 markets. Unlike previous research, we find that convergence was a predominantly pre-modern phenomenon. It started in the late fifteenth and reached a first high point in the early seventeenth century - a level of integration that was surpassed only in the nineteenth century. In terms of market integration, the ‘little divergence’ between parts of North-Western Europe and the rest of the continent appears since about 1600. Long-term improvements in market efficiency began in the early sixteenth century, with advances being temporarily as uneven as in price convergence. We trace this to uneven institutional change and the non-synchronous spread of modern media and systems of information transmission that affected the ability of merchants to react to news

Application of a New Tree-Ring Based Drought Reconstruction Method at Multiple Forest Sites Across Indiana, U.S.A.

This thesis research used techniques of dendrochronology to investigate the efficacy of using multiple co-occurring species (MCOS) in a climate reconstruction model compared to a single species (SS) in four old-growth forests in Indiana: Pioneer Mothers Memorial Forest (PM), Donaldson Woods (DW), Hoot Woods (HW), and Lilly Dickey Woods (LD). The objectives of this study were to [1] evaluate the climate response of all chronologies (n = 19; 7 species) to determine the most appropriate climate variable for reconstruction and [2] determine if the MCOS model outperforms the SS model at each individual study site. Model comparison was conducted with r2, adj. r2, standardized residuals, root-mean-square error (RMSE), F statistic, and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Summer (June–August; JJA) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was the best predicated climate variable, thus two separate models (SS and MCOS) were created at each site for reconstruction. The MCOS outperformed the SS at each site. During the instrumental period (1895–2000), the MCOS at PM, DW, HW and LD explained 50%, 49%, 36%, and 50% of the variance in JJA PDSI, respectively; whereas explained variance of the SS was 40%, 45%, 33%, and 47%. Further, adj. r2, standardized residuals, RMSE, and AIC all suggest that using the MCOS method to reconstruct drought outperforms the SS method. Future tree-ring based climate reconstructions should consider using the MCOS model because it allows reconstructions to go further back in time and produces more accurate estimates of climate conditions

Deep-Sea Biodiversity in the Aegean Sea

The present chapter aims to describe macrofauna in the Aegean deep waters. The review is based mainly on the studies of deep waters below 200 m. A total of 386 species are included on the present checklist belonging to 9 phyla. Among these species, Porifera has 9 species, Cnidaria 4, Brachiopoda 3, Bryozoa 1, Polychaeta 34, Mollusca 92, Arthropoda 86, Echinodermata 30 and Pisces 127 species

A non-linear analysis of Gibson's paradox in the Netherlands, 1800-2012

This paper adopts a multivariate, non-linear framework to analyse Gibson’s paradox in the Netherlands over the period 1800-2012. Specifically, SSA (singular spectrum) and MSSA (multichannel singular spectrum) techniques are used. It is shown that changes in monetary policy regimes or volatility in the price of gold by themselves cannot account for the behaviour of government bond yields and prices in the Netherlands over the last 200 years. However, the inclusion of changes in the real rate of return on capital, M1, primary credit rate, expected inflation, and money purchasing power enables a nonlinear model to account for a sizeable percentage of the total variance of Dutch bond yields