Spatiotemporal Patterns and Predictability of Cyberattacks

Y.C.L. was supported by Air Force Office of Scientific Research (AFOSR) under grant no. FA9550-10-1-0083 and Army Research Office (ARO) under grant no. W911NF-14-1-0504. S.X. was supported by Army Research Office (ARO) under grant no. W911NF-13-1-0141. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Spatiotemporal patterns and predictability of cyberattacks

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term "spatio" refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing {\em macroscopic} properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack "fingerprints" and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches

Combining Naive Bayes and Decision Tree for Adaptive Intrusion Detection

In this paper, a new learning algorithm for adaptive network intrusion detection using naive Bayesian classifier and decision tree is presented, which performs balance detections and keeps false positives at acceptable level for different types of network attacks, and eliminates redundant attributes as well as contradictory examples from training data that make the detection model complex. The proposed algorithm also addresses some difficulties of data mining such as handling continuous attribute, dealing with missing attribute values, and reducing noise in training data. Due to the large volumes of security audit data as well as the complex and dynamic properties of intrusion behaviours, several data miningbased intrusion detection techniques have been applied to network-based traffic data and host-based data in the last decades. However, there remain various issues needed to be examined towards current intrusion detection systems (IDS). We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm with existing learning algorithms by employing on the KDD99 benchmark intrusion detection dataset. The experimental results prove that the proposed algorithm achieved high detection rates (DR) and significant reduce false positives (FP) for different types of network intrusions using limited computational resources.Comment: 14 Pages, IJNS

Comprehensive Security Framework for Global Threats Analysis

Cyber criminality activities are changing and becoming more and more professional. With the growth of financial flows through the Internet and the Information System (IS), new kinds of thread arise involving complex scenarios spread within multiple IS components. The IS information modeling and Behavioral Analysis are becoming new solutions to normalize the IS information and counter these new threads. This paper presents a framework which details the principal and necessary steps for monitoring an IS. We present the architecture of the framework, i.e. an ontology of activities carried out within an IS to model security information and User Behavioral analysis. The results of the performed experiments on real data show that the modeling is effective to reduce the amount of events by 91%. The User Behavioral Analysis on uniform modeled data is also effective, detecting more than 80% of legitimate actions of attack scenarios

Using Bloom\u27s and Webb\u27s Taxonomies to Integrate Emerging Cybersecurity Topics into a Computic Curriculum

Recent high profile hackings have cost companies millions of dollars resulting in an increasing priority to protect government and business data. Universities are under increased pressure to produce graduates with better security knowledge and skills, particularly emerging cybersecurity skills. Although accredited undergraduate computing programs recognize the need to solve this problem, these computing programs are constrained by accreditation standards and have limited ability to modify their curricula. This paper discusses a case study on how one Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology (ABET) accredited undergraduate IT program created a strategy to continue to teach existing security-related topics as well as emerging cybersecurity topics within its IT curriculum without increasing credit requirements. The faculty developed an IT Security-related and Cybersecurity Curriculum Taxonomy to identify strategies to move security-related topics taught in the higher level courses to lower and intermediate courses. Thus emerging cybersecurity topics could be added to high-level courses. The faculty also created the IT Student Learning (Security-related) Taxonomy by combining Bloom’s Taxonomy’s six levels of thinking with Webb’s Depth of Knowledge Model. This student learning taxonomy enabled the faculty to review the student learning outcomes for each of the existing security-related core topics and develop new ones for the emerging cybersecurity topics. Challenges, benefits, and application of this strategy to other disciplines are discussed

Cyber-Attack Prediction Based on Network Intrusion Detection Systems for Alert Correlation Techniques: A Survey

Network Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDS) are designed to safeguard the security needs of enterprise networks against cyber-attacks. However, NIDS networks suffer from several limitations, such as generating a high volume of low-quality alerts. Moreover, 99% of the alerts produced by NIDSs are false positives. As well, the prediction of future actions of an attacker is one of the most important goals here. The study has reviewed the state-of-the-art cyber-attack prediction based on NIDS Intrusion Alert, its models, and limitations. The taxonomy of intrusion alert correlation (AC) is introduced, which includes similarity-based, statistical-based, knowledge-based, and hybrid-based approaches. Moreover, the classification of alert correlation components was also introduced. Alert Correlation Datasets and future research directions are highlighted. The AC receives raw alerts to identify the association between different alerts, linking each alert to its related contextual information and predicting a forthcoming alert/attack. It provides a timely, concise, and high-level view of the network security situation. This review can serve as a benchmark for researchers and industries for Network Intrusion Detection Systems’ future progress and development

Air Force Institute of Technology Research Report 2007

This report summarizes the research activities of the Air Force Institute of Technology’s Graduate School of Engineering and Management. It describes research interests and faculty expertise; lists student theses/dissertations; identifies research sponsors and contributions; and outlines the procedures for contacting the school. Included in the report are: faculty publications, conference presentations, consultations, and funded research projects. Research was conducted in the areas of Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering, Electrical Engineering and Electro-Optics, Computer Engineering and Computer Science, Systems and Engineering Management, Operational Sciences, Mathematics, Statistics and Engineering Physics

An Innovative Signature Detection System for Polymorphic and Monomorphic Internet Worms Detection and Containment

Most current anti-worm systems and intrusion-detection systems use signature-based technology instead of anomaly-based technology. Signature-based technology can only detect known attacks with identified signatures. Existing anti-worm systems cannot detect unknown Internet scanning worms automatically because these systems do not depend upon worm behaviour but upon the worm’s signature. Most detection algorithms used in current detection systems target only monomorphic worm payloads and offer no defence against polymorphic worms, which changes the payload dynamically. Anomaly detection systems can detect unknown worms but usually suffer from a high false alarm rate. Detecting unknown worms is challenging, and the worm defence must be automated because worms spread quickly and can flood the Internet in a short time. This research proposes an accurate, robust and fast technique to detect and contain Internet worms (monomorphic and polymorphic). The detection technique uses specific failure connection statuses on specific protocols such as UDP, TCP, ICMP, TCP slow scanning and stealth scanning as characteristics of the worms. Whereas the containment utilizes flags and labels of the segment header and the source and destination ports to generate the traffic signature of the worms. Experiments using eight different worms (monomorphic and polymorphic) in a testbed environment were conducted to verify the performance of the proposed technique. The experiment results showed that the proposed technique could detect stealth scanning up to 30 times faster than the technique proposed by another researcher and had no false-positive alarms for all scanning detection cases. The experiments showed the proposed technique was capable of containing the worm because of the traffic signature’s uniqueness

A Systematic Review of the State of Cyber-Security in Water Systems

Critical infrastructure systems are evolving from isolated bespoke systems to those that use general-purpose computing hosts, IoT sensors, edge computing, wireless networks and artificial intelligence. Although this move improves sensing and control capacity and gives better integration with business requirements, it also increases the scope for attack from malicious entities that intend to conduct industrial espionage and sabotage against these systems. In this paper, we review the state of the cyber-security research that is focused on improving the security of the water supply and wastewater collection and treatment systems that form part of the critical national infrastructure. We cover the publication statistics of the research in this area, the aspects of security being addressed, and future work required to achieve better cyber-security for water systems

Air Force Institute of Technology Research Report 2009

This report summarizes the research activities of the Air Force Institute of Technology’s Graduate School of Engineering and Management. It describes research interests and faculty expertise; lists student theses/dissertations; identifies research sponsors and contributions; and outlines the procedures for contacting the school. Included in the report are: faculty publications, conference presentations, consultations, and funded research projects. Research was conducted in the areas of Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering, Electrical Engineering and Electro-Optics, Computer Engineering and Computer Science, Systems and Engineering Management, Operational Sciences, Mathematics, Statistics and Engineering Physics