Modeling and Application of the Seasonal Time Series Based on the Structural Time Series Models

对于宏观季节序列而言，季节性波动是其中所蕴含的最显著的特征，因此 在宏观经济分析中，首先需要应对的便是如何处理数据中所蕴含的季节性。虽 然利用季节调整软件剔除季节性波动可以使得经济分析更加简便，但传统季节 调整方法会造成序列中所包含信息的失真，并可能会导致季节调整数据信息的 扭曲；此外，就我国本土而言，国外的季节调整软件可能无法完全剔除我国春 节等传统中式节假日所带来的异常波动。 为避免基于季节调整数据建模所带来的影响，提高数据信息的利用率，本 文考虑在结构时间序列模型的框架下直接利用宏观季节序列来进行建模。本文 重点构建了针对季节增长率数据的单变量季节增长率模型、非线性马尔科...Seasonal fluctuations are the most significant features of the seasonal time series. Therefore, in the macroeconomic analysis, first need to deal with is the seasonal fluctuations in the data. Although the use of seasonal adjustment software to eliminate seasonal fluctuations can make economic analysis more convenient, but the traditional seasonal adjustment method will cause distortions in in...学位：经济学博士院系专业：王亚南经济研究院_数量经济学学号：2772012015385

The spatial and temporal distribution of virioplankton and heterotrophic bacteria in the coastal waters of Zhejiang

为了解浙江近海海域浮游病毒和异养细菌的时空生态分布,于2014年11月(秋)、2015年1月(冬)、2015年5月(春)和2015年7月(夏)连; 续4个季节采集了浙江近海海域表层海水样品,采用流式细胞仪技术对样品浮游病毒和异养细菌丰度进行了检测,对其时空分布特征及与环境因子的相关性做了分析; 。从水平分布来看,在4个季节中浮游病毒、异养细菌丰度均为宁波、沈家门、岱山等沿岸海域站位的丰度低,远陆海域东极和枸杞站位的丰度高。从季节变化来看; ,浮游病毒、异养细菌丰度的季节分布特征同为夏>春>秋>冬,相关性分析结果表明,春、夏、秋、冬4个季节,浮游病毒丰度与异养细菌丰度均为显著正相关。; 浮游病毒丰度在春、秋、冬季节均与病毒/细菌比值(VBR)显著正相关;夏、秋季节均与盐度显著正相关;春、夏季节均与总磷显著负相关;春季分别于与溶解; 氧、pH、化学耗氧量(COD)显著正相关。异养细菌在春、秋、冬季节均与VBR显著正相关;春、夏季节与溶解氧显著正相关,冬季与溶解氧显著负相关;春; 、夏季节与总磷显著负相关;秋、冬季节均与温度、盐度显著正相关;春、冬季节均与COD显著正相关。In order to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of; virioplankton and heterotrophic bacteria in the coastal waters of; Zhejiang,the representative samples of sea water were collected in the; coastal waters of Zhejiang for 4 consecutive seasons in November; 2014(Autumn),January 2015(winter),May 2015(spring) and July; 2015(summer). The distribution of virioplankton and heterotrophic; bacteria was studied by flow cytometry,and the correlations between the; abundances of virioplankton,heterotrophic bacteria and environmental; factors were also analyzed. From the horizontal distribution,in the four; seasons low abundance of virioplankton and heterotrophic bacteria was in; the stations of Ningbo,Shenjiamen,Daishan immediate offshore; area;high-abundance was in the stations of Dongji and Gouqi offshore; area. From the seasonal distribution,the abundance of the virioplankton; and heterotrophic bacteria was the same as that of; summer>spring>autumn>winter. The abundance of virioplankton and; heterotrophic bacteria was significantly and positively correlated in; the 4 seasons. The abundance of virioplankton was significantly and; positively correlated with VBR in spring,autumn and winter. The; abundance of virioplankton was significantly and positively correlated; with salinity in summer and autumn. The abundance of virioplankton was; significantly and negatively correlated with TP in spring and summer.; The abundance of virioplankton was significantly and positively; correlated with dissolved oxygen,pH,COD in spring. The heterotrophic; bacteria were significantly and positively correlated with VBR in; spring,autumn and winter. The heterotrophic bacteria were significantly; and positively correlated with dissolved oxygen in spring and summer but; were significantly and negatively correlated with dissolved oxygen in; winter. The heterotrophic bacteria were significantly and negatively; correlated with TP in spring and summer. The heterotrophic bacteria were; significantly and positively correlated with temperature and salinity in; autumn and winter. The heterotrophic bacteria were significantly and; positively correlated with COD in spring and winter.国家海洋局公益性行业科研专

Exploration and Analysis on Seasonal Adjustment of China's Consumer Price Index

月度或季度经济时间序列通常可以用来衡量短时间内经济指标的变化情况，但这样的序列往往包含会混淆与掩盖趋势周期信息的季节因素与不规则因素，这就使得未经处理的常见经济数据不能直接用于分析判断而形成决策，否则会得到偏离真实情况甚至是相反的结果。是以，我们需要对经济时间序列进行季节调整，将原始序列中包含的季节因素剔除，得到不含季节特征的经济时间序列，以便更客观更准确地对经济状况做出解读。 国外对于季节调整的研究起步相对较早，发展并提出了一系列季节调整的方法，逐渐整合演变出如今应用最广泛的X-12-ARIMA方法和TRAMO/SEATS方法，以及通过将这两种方法有机结合，最新开发的X-13ARIMA-S...Generally speaking, monthly or quarterly economic time series can often be used to measure the changes of economy in a short period of time. However, such series usually contains components of seasonal factor and irregular factor, which may cover up the information of the components of tendency and cycle. This means that untreated common economic data cannot be directly used in analysis to make ju...学位：经济学硕士院系专业：经济学院_数量经济学学号：1542013115203

The Research on Sound Propagation Experiment and Numerical Simulation in Continental Slope Environment of the Northern China Sea

南海大陆架和大陆斜坡是由浅海向深海过渡的海区，拥有强烈的地形变化和 较为复杂的水文动力条件，是一种复杂的声传播环境。理解这些典型条件下的声 传播现象并掌握其规律对南海的国防建设、资源开发、交通运输等均具有重大意 义。 本文首先对季节性的海洋环境变化做了分析，500m深温度断面的比较表明 季节间的变化特别体现在混合层深度的增减上，反映在声速上的变化则是混合层 声道的深度的季节性变化，声速梯度基本结构没有变化。对四个季节的声传播损 失数据，首先进行了距离与深度上的平均，然后利用长期非静态（LTNS，Longtermnonstationary）均值来比较各季节声传播损失的相对变化。结果...As transitional areas from shallow sea to the deep ocean, continental shelf and slopes of the South China Sea involve intense topographical changes and intricate hydrographical conditions, which bring a typical un-regular sound propagation environment. To understand all kinds of sound propagation phenomenon in such an environment and its governing law are of great significance to military acti...学位：理学硕士院系专业：海洋与地球学院_物理海洋学学号：2232013115136

闽江下游及河口溶解无机氮的季节分布及组成

为研究闽江下游及河口区溶解无机氮（DIN）的季节分布及组成,采集并分析了四季的表层水样。平面分布上,NO3-N不同季节有所不同;NH4-N及NO2-N不同季节分布特征基本一致,仓山区、鼓楼区附近的站位受城市污水影响而含量偏高。季节变化上,NO3-N南北段春季最高,河口段冬季最高;NH4-N南北段秋季远高于其它三个季节,河口段季节变化不大;NO2-N南北段及河口段季节变化不大。DIN组成上,南北段不同季节占比相似,DIN组成上未达到热力学平衡;河口段DIN组成季节变化不大,三态间基本达到热力学平衡。DIN[2]转化上,北段三氮之间相关性总体较弱,且与DO的相关性变化较大,三氮关系受复杂的来源、人类活动及生物化学过程影响;南段三氮之间的相关性较显著也较复杂;河口段三氮及DO之间的关系季节差异比较明显。此外,闽江下游及河口DIN年际增高及超标现象较严重。国家自然科学基金(41376050

Research on the treatment of seasonal commodities in CPI Based on the theoretical and practical compilation of China’s CPI

季节性商品是居民日常生活中大量消费的产品，其价格和数量经常随着季节出现大的波动，这些波动给消费者价格指数（CPI）的编制和相应的价格变动分析带来困难。如何适当处理季节性商品，并编制消除了季节因素影响的价格指数，是统计机构必需审慎考虑和妥善解决的问题。 传统上通常采用经济计量模型或时间序列方法来对消费者价格指数中的季节性因素进行分离，进而得到消除了季节性影响的价格指数序列。然而，这些传统的季节调整方法或模型通常需要进行一些人为的判断和假定，这导致了不同经济统计学家往往得到不同的季节调整后的消费者价格指数序列。为此，本文借鉴国际经验，考察了另一种处理CPI中季节因素影响的方法，即通过编制滚动年指...Seasonal commodities represent a significant consumption in the daily lives of residents, they have fluctuations in both prices and quantities that are synchronized with the time of year, these fluctuations present problems for the compilation of consumer price index (CPI) and the analysis of price movements. How to deal with seasonal commodities and eliminate seasonal effects in the price index, ...学位：经济学硕士院系专业：经济学院_统计学学号：1542010115190

Anaerobic respiration and its influence on the carbonate system in estuarine sediment

海洋是大气CO2重要的汇。自工业革命以来，海洋吸收的人为CO2已导致表层海水中的自由氢离子浓度升高了26%，海水pH降低了0.1个单位，同时，水体溶解无机碳(DIC)和HCO3-浓度升高，CO32-浓度降低，海水碳酸盐系统对CO2的缓冲能力降低。碱度(TA)的高低是海水对pH变化起缓冲作用的重要因素，一般地说，TA越高，则海水碳酸盐系统的缓冲能力越强。 每年通过河口输入海洋的DIC大致相当于全球海洋吸收大气CO2量的20%，与同时入海的TA一起对海洋碳酸盐系统产生重要影响。低纬度河口面积占全球河口总面积的60%，其在调节海洋碳酸盐系统缓冲能力上的重要性更是无法忽略。珠江口和九龙江河口均属于受...Sequestration of CO2 by the ocean lead to the decrease of pH in surface seawater by 0.1 since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, corresponding to 26% of increase in the hydrogen ion concentration. At the same time, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), HCO3- and CO32- concentrations increased and the buffer capacity of carbonate system decreased. Total alkalinity (TA) is the major factor whi...学位：理学硕士院系专业：环境与生态学院_环境科学学号：3312012115164

A Direct Method Based on Seasonally Adjusted Growth Rate

传统季节调整方法在提取环比增长率时需要先剔除原始数据中的季节成分,这会带来原始数据信息的失真。鉴于此,本文提出了一种直接拟合原始数据增长率的季节增长率(SGR)模型,该模型不仅可以直接提取环比增长率,还可以对原始数据的增长率进行预测。蒙特卡洛模拟结果表明,本文给出的针对SGR模型的MLE估计方法具有良好的有限样本表现。通过对我国GDP和CPI数据进行实证,本文发现利用SGR模型直接提取的环比增长率的稳定性要高于其他一些季节调整方法。不仅如此,SGR模型的拟合和预测表现相比BSM模型和SARIMA模型均有显著提高。此外,SGR模型还具有容易拓展为非线性、多元情形的优势。Using the traditional seasonal adjustment method to obtain the seasonally adjusted growth rate, in which need to remove its seasonal component first, hut it maybe lead to distortions on the raw data information. According to that reason, this paper presents a seasonal growth rate （SGR） model that can not only fit and forecast the original seasonal growth rate, but also extract the seasonally adjusted growth rate from the unadjusted growth rate data directly. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the proposed MLE estimation method for SGR model has a good finite sample performance. Through the empirical applications to Chinas real GDP and CPI data, we find that the seasonally adjusted growth rate extracted by the SGR model is smoother than by the other seasonally adjustment methods. Moreover, the fitting and forecasting performance of the SGR model is significantly improved compared to that of the BSM model and the SARIMA model. In addition, the SGR model also has the advantage of being easily extended to the nonlinear or multivariate cases.长江学者奖励计划青年学者项目(Q2016131)；国家自然科学基金面上项目“状态空间混频模型及其在宏观经济中的应用(71371160)”；教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划“混频数据建摸及其在经济中的应用(NCET-13-0509)”；厦门大学基础创新科研基金“利率期限结构的混频建模及应用(201422G010)”的资助

The simulation of Madden-Julian Oscillation and the optimal forecast error analysis

热带季节内振荡（在大气中以Madden-JulianOscillation为主，以下简称MJO），是全球季节内尺度预报的最主要信号来源，在天气气候系统的预报中起着非常重要的作用。作为目前发现的全球最强的季节内准周期信号，国内外普遍认为MJO的预报是联系数值天气预报和季节预报的桥梁，能够填补中期预报与短期气候预测之间的延伸期预报时段的“缝隙”。自20世纪70年代Madden和Julian提出以来，MJO现已在国际上获得了广泛关注，其机理研究和预报开展已经成为了全球气候研究的热门方向之一。 本文主要针对MJO的数值模拟和集合预报两方面做了一些研究，采用的数值模式是美国国家大气研究中心（NCAR）...The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal varia-bility in the tropics. Coherent eastward propagation of convection and zonal wind over the Indian Ocean, the Maritime Continent, and the western Pacific Ocean are the salient features of the MJO. Furthermore, the MJO plays a critical role in connecting the weather and climate variation. Thus, the MJO has become an inte...学位：理学博士院系专业：海洋与地球学院_物理海洋学学号：2232013015375

ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN MAKNA MUSIM DALAM PERIBAHASA MANDARIN DAN PERIBAHASA INDONESIA

Proverbs are one of our forms of expression.proverbs use a variety of elements, one of which is the element of seasons. Seasons are an inseparable part of everyday life, because seasons have a great influence on people's lives. Seasons in different regions make people's expressions and thoughts also different. Because China and Indonesia have different people's cultural backgrounds, thoughts and living habits, the people of the two countries also have differences in observation and introduction to the seasons. The author hopes that through the comparison of Chinese and Indonesian season proverbs, it can increase students' knowledge and mastery of proverbs. Therefore, the author chose the title of comparative analysis of the meaning of seasons in Mandarin proverbs and Indonesian proverbs as research. Through literature analysis and comparative analysis methods, the author collected 83 Chinese season proverbs and 29 Indonesian season proverbs. Chinese season proverbs containing positive meanings are 37.35% with a total number of proverbs that are 31 pieces, neutral meanings are 56.63% with a total number of proverbs that are 47 pieces, negative meanings are 6.02% with a total number of proverbs that are 5 pieces. In the Indonesian season proverbs that contain positive meanings there are 10.34% with a total number of proverbs that are 3 pieces, neutral meanings are 68.97% with a total number of proverbs that are 20 pieces, negative meanings are 20.69% with a total number of proverbs that are 6 pieces