Does a Common Threat Unite?: Alliance Formation in East Asia Under Chinese Pressure

Abstract

The study explores whether a shared geopolitical threat fosters alliance formation among East Asian nations, focusing on Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea in the context of increasing Chinese influence. Integrating insights from international relations theory and social psychology—particularly Realistic Conflict Theory and the out-group unifying effect—the research evaluates whether perceived Chinese aggression corresponds with increased positive sentiment toward the United States. Utilizing data from the Asian Barometer Survey, linear regression analysis is conducted to assess how perceptions of Chinese and U.S. influence, democratic values, and political affiliation shape public attitudes. Results show that while negative views of Chinese and U.S. regional influence significantly affect perceptions of the United States, these dynamics do not consistently support the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” hypothesis at the individual level. In contrast, a qualitative case study of Taiwan’s foreign policy response to Chinese provocations reveals evidence of alliance-building behavior at the state level, particularly in closer ties with Japan and the U.S. The findings suggest that while public opinion may not align with theoretical expectations, alliance formation in East Asia continues to be shaped by strategic calculations and elite-level diplomacy under perceived external threat