Development of a potential distribution model for the Hyacinth Macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus)

Abstract

This study aimed to model the potential distribution of the Hyacinth Macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus) across its vast range in central and eastern South America, addressing the urgent problem of habitat loss and insufficient protected areas that threaten the species' survival. By employing advanced species distribution models that integrate multi-temporal occurrence records and land use/cover data, it is possible to assess changes in suitable habitat over the past 25 years and identified key environmental predictors influencing macaw distribution. The results revealed that while the overall modelled range of the Hyacinth Macaw expanded by approximately 75,000 km², only 8–10 % of this habitat currently falls within protected areas, and more than 20,500 km² of protected land has been degazetted in recent decades. The most influential factors explaining habitat suitability were the distribution of key palm and tree species, forest cover, and recent changes in land use, particularly the expansion of agriculture and pasture. These findings highlight the dynamic and regionally variable response of the species to land cover change, with expansion in the Amazon, stability in the Pantanal, and fragmentation in the Cerrado. The distinctive feature of this research is the use of multi-temporal modelling, which allowed to capture spatiotemporal patterns and identify priority areas for conservation and restoration, even in data-poor and remote regions. The models developed here can be practically applied to guide conservation planning, inform protected area designation, and support community-based monitoring initiatives across the Hyacinth Macaw’s rang