Municipal waste management in times of economic downturn - the case of the Växjö Municipality (Sweden)

Abstract

This paper is analysing the development of municipal waste amounts in theSwedish municipality of Växjö. The cause of the analysis were decliningwaste amounts in the second half of 2008, which was a rather atypical developmentsince in the years before, a steady growth could be observed.Therefore, the Waste management department in Växjö raised the questionif and in what way the economic downturn that Sweden is currently undergoingcould affect the waste amounts. This is the central question I try toanswer in this paper. To pursue a systematic analysis, I start with a theoreticalsection on how waste is generated in societies, how waste is managed inSweden and which factors influence the development of municipal waste.Aim of this section is to give a theoretical assessment on how the economicdownturn could affect the actual waste amounts. Then, an empirical analysisof Växjö’s municipal waste amounts is conducted. This is done by timeseries modelling of monthly amounts, by using the ARIMA methodology.The models then are tested on structural breaks that could be attributed to aneconomic downturn. Finally, the waste amounts for the next twelve monthsare forecasted