Seasonal changes in the North Atlantic cold anomaly: the influence of cold surface waters from coastal Greenland and warming trends associated with variations in subarctic sea ice cover

Worldwide sea surface temperatures (SST) have increased on average by about 1oC since 1900 with the exception of a region of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) near 50oN which has cooled by up to 0.9oC over the same period, generating the negative feature on temperature anomaly maps which has been colloquially described by Rahmstorf et al. (2015) as the ‘cold blob’ (abbreviated here CB). This unique long term surface cooling trend is most evident in February but in August net warming is observed even at CB epicentre and the CB itself is reduced to a mere ‘warming hole’. These seasonal changes in the intensity of the CB are the product of two separate factors: (1) a long term winter cooling specific for the CB region which appears to be associated with cooling of Greenland coastal waters in autumn, plausibly linked to summer meltwater from icebergs and sea ice and (2) summer warming effects which derive from (a) dramatic reductions in summer sea ice cover in the sub‐Arctic over the last 30 years that allows enhanced absorption of sunlight by the new open water in summer and (b) an unusual period of increased summer sub‐Arctic ice cover in the early 20th century which lowers the SST baseline measured from 1900, thus increasing the calculated linear rate of change of SST with time. Both of these effects could contribute to the observed Arctic amplification of warming

Unrealistic increases in wind speed explain reduced eastern Pacific heat flux in reanalyses

Tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature plays a pivotal role in mechanisms that determine global mean surface temperature variability. In this study, the surface flux contribution to recent cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific is investigated using data from three atmospheric reanalyses with full assimilation of observations, an observations-based net surface energy flux reconstruction and fifteen atmospheric-only climate model simulations. For the ERA-Interim reanalysis, 78% of the decrease in net surface flux (-0.65 Wm-2/yr over 1988-2008) is explained by the latent heat flux variability. Latent heat flux variability differs between datasets and this is investigated using a bulk formula. We find that discrepancies in wind speed change explain contrasting latent heat flux trends across datasets. The significant increase of 0.26 m/s/decade in wind speed over the tropical eastern Pacific in the ERA-Interim reanalysis is not reproduced by satellite or buoy observations and atmospheric-only climate model simulations, casting questions on the reliability of reanalysis-based surface fluxes over the tropical eastern Pacific

Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa

Multiple observational data sets and atmosphere-only simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analyzed to characterize recent rainfall variability and trends over Africa focusing on 1983–2010. Data sets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in rain gauge density, were identified. The remaining observations display coherent increases in annual Sahel rainfall (29 to 43 mm yr−1 per decade), decreases in March–May East African rainfall (−14 to −65 mm yr−1 per decade), and increases in annual Southern Africa rainfall (32 to 41 mm yr−1 per decade). However, Central Africa annual rainfall trends vary in sign (−10 to +39 mm yr−1 per decade). For Southern Africa, observed and sea surface temperature (SST)-forced model simulated rainfall variability are significantly correlated (r~0.5) and linked to SST patterns associated with recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation

Co-variation of temperature and precipitation in CMIP5 models and satellite observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled(CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates. There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5 simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 %/K for simulations and 3-4 %/K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Niño Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (75% precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is ~13-15%/K for GPCP and ~5%/K for models while trends in P are 2.4%/decade for GPCP, 0.6% /decade for CMIP5 and 0.9%/decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets

Odden ice melt linked to Labrador Sea ice expansions and the Great Salinity Anomalies of 1970–1995

In each of the last three decades of the 20th century there were unprecedented expansions of sea-ice over the Labrador Sea basin and influxes of cold fresh water into the subpolar gyre (SPG) which have been described as the Great Salinity Anomalies (GSAs). Employing data for sea surface temperature, salinity, and sea-ice cover, we propose that these events were downstream consequences of the expansion and subsequent melting of so-called “Odden” ice formed over the deep basin of the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) Sea in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s and additional to the normal East Greenland shelf sea-ice. We extend previous findings that Odden ice expansions were linked to winter episodes of high atmospheric pressure north of Greenland that directed freezing Arctic winds across the GIN Sea and may also have been associated with increased Arctic sea-ice volume leading to enhanced ice export through Fram Strait. We show that cold water and ice derived from Odden melting in the summer passed through Denmark Strait and along the East Greenland shelf, and accumulated in the Labrador Sea, creating favorable conditions for winter ice formation during particularly cold years in southwest Greenland. Meltwater from Odden and Labrador Sea ice appeared to break out into the SPG in the fall of 1982 and 1984 respectively and this cold water represents the likely source of the 1982–1985 GSA. These findings further our understanding of the physical processes linking ice formation and melt with ocean circulation in this key component of the climate system

Atmospheric rivers do not explain UK summer extreme rainfall

Extreme rainfall events continue to be one of the largest natural hazards in the UK. In winter, heavy precipitation and floods have been linked with intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), yet no large-scale atmospheric precursors have been linked to summer flooding in the UK. This study investigates the link between ARs and extreme rainfall from two perspectives: 1) Given an extreme rainfall event, is there an associated AR? 2) Given an AR, is there an associated extreme rainfall event? We identify extreme rainfall events using the UK Met Office daily rain-gauge dataset and link these to ARs using two different horizontal resolution atmospheric datasets (ERA-Interim and 20th Century Re-analysis). The results show that less than 35% of winter ARs and less than 15% of summer ARs are associated with an extreme rainfall event. Consistent with previous studies, at least 50% of extreme winter rainfall events are associated with an AR. However, less than 20% of the identified summer extreme rainfall events are associated with an AR. The dependence of the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR on the years included in the study, and on the length of the season, is also examined. Including a longer period (1900-2012) compared to previous studies (1979-2005) reduces the water vapor transport intensity threshold used to define an AR

Evaluation of five satellite top-of-atmosphere albedo products over land

Five satellite top-of-atmosphere (TOA) albedo products over land were evaluated in this study including global products from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) (TAL-AVHRR), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (TAL-MODIS), and Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES); one regional product from the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF); and one harmonized product termed Diagnosing Earth’s Energy Pathways in the Climate system (DEEP-C). Results showed that overall, there is good consistency among these five products, particularly after the year 2000. The differences among these products in the high-latitude regions were relatively larger. The percentage differences among TAL-AVHRR, TAL-MODIS, and CERES were generally less than 20%, while the differences between TAL-AVHRR and DEEP-C before 2000 were much larger. Except for the obvious decrease in the differences after 2000, the differences did not show significant changes over time, but varied among different regions. The differences between TAL-AVHRR and the other products were relatively large in the high-latitude regions of North America, Asia, and the Maritime Continent, while the differences between DEEP-C and CM SAF in Europe and Africa were smaller. Interannual variability was consistent between products after 2000, before which the differences among the three products were much larger