Agriculture in the Arctic is often limited by the low receipt
of heat energy, which is often measured in growing degree
days (GDD). With the advent of increasingly powerful climate
modeling, projection and downscaling techniques, it is becoming possible to examine future climates in high resolution.
Recent availability in Alaska has prompted interest in examining the distribution of current and the potential future of
local agriculture. The goal of this study was to utilize Scenarios
Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP) downscaled, ensemble
projections to examine this in terms of GDDs in the Fairbanks
North Star Borough of Alaska. Historic and projected monthly
mean temperatures were utilized to calculate GDDs and then
map the borough at a 4 km2 scale. Additionally, local agriculturalists were interviewed in order to put these theoretical calculations into context. Ultimately, projections of the examined agricultural locations showed an average of a 2% increase
in GDD per decade and a 26% increase in GDDs from 1949
to 2099. This project indicated that the North Star Borough
will receive increased heat energy due to climate change over
the next century that may further enable increased yields and
varieties of crops
