Graph-based techniques emerged as a choice to deal with the dimensionality
issues in modeling multivariate time series. However, there is yet no complete
understanding of how the underlying structure could be exploited to ease this
task. This work provides contributions in this direction by considering the
forecasting of a process evolving over a graph. We make use of the
(approximate) time-vertex stationarity assumption, i.e., timevarying graph
signals whose first and second order statistical moments are invariant over
time and correlated to a known graph topology. The latter is combined with VAR
and VARMA models to tackle the dimensionality issues present in predicting the
temporal evolution of multivariate time series. We find out that by projecting
the data to the graph spectral domain: (i) the multivariate model estimation
reduces to that of fitting a number of uncorrelated univariate ARMA models and
(ii) an optimal low-rank data representation can be exploited so as to further
reduce the estimation costs. In the case that the multivariate process can be
observed at a subset of nodes, the proposed models extend naturally to Kalman
filtering on graphs allowing for optimal tracking. Numerical experiments with
both synthetic and real data validate the proposed approach and highlight its
benefits over state-of-the-art alternatives.Comment: submitted to the IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin
