Céline Christiansen-Jucht

Diane Pople

Edwin Michael

Paul E Parham

Steve Lindsay

Wes Hinsley

Malaria Journal

PubMed

Springer - Publisher Connector

POSTER PRESENTATION Open Access
Understanding the role of climatic and
environmental variables on the population
dynamics of Anopheles gambiae s.s. and the
implications for vector control strategies in
different settings
Paul E Parham1*, Diane Pople2, Céline Christiansen-Jucht2, Steve Lindsay3, Wes Hinsley2, Edwin Michael4
From Challenges in malaria research
Basel, Switzerland. 10-12 October 2012
Background
The impact of weather, climate, and environmental condi-
tions on malaria transmission have attracted increasing
attention in recent years, although there remain significant
uncertainties and debate regarding its precise role. Global
mean temperatures are predicted to increase by several
degrees over the coming century, although increases in
Africa, accounting for over 90% of the global malaria bur-
den, are expected to be greater than the global mean, with
anticipated median increases around 3-4°C (depending on
the emissions scenario). Global mean precipitation is also
predicted to increase in most emissions scenarios over the
coming decades, although there is currently less consensus
between climate models on expected changes thereafter,
particularly at low latitudes where the majority of cases
arise and across many regions of Africa. Mathematical
models provide powerful tools for understanding the
impact of changes in environmental variables on transmis-
sion and intervention strategies, but this first requires rea-
listic modelling of Anopheles population dynamics and its
response to environmental variables.
Materials and methods
Experimental and field data are used to develop new para-
meterisations to model the relationships between key
aspects of An. gambiae s.s. ecology and climatic and envir-
onmental conditions. These relationships are integrated
into a deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s.
population dynamics to better understand mosquito
response to changes in biotic and abiotic variables. This
model is then calibrated against longitudinal vector abun-
dance data from Tanzania, before applying the methods of
matrix population modelling to analyse model behaviour
(specifically, adult An. gambiae s.s. response to environ-
mental conditions), and, hence, assess the implications for
the design and implementation of local vector control
strategies.
Results
A valuable modelling framework for assessing the effects
of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, tempera-
ture, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector
abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction,
analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models.
Model calibration demonstrates excellent agreement with
abundance data over a 40 month period, suggesting that
recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could
be due to changing environmental conditions. Analysis of
the model demonstrates the dependence on climatic con-
ditions of An. gambiae s.s. persistence, resilience, stable
stage distribution, and reproductive value of each of its
lifecycle stages to fluctuations in local environmental
conditions.
Conclusions
Mathematical models provide a valuable means of under-
standing the role of environmental variables on malaria
vectors and hence for better understanding future malaria
1Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Department of Infectious Disease
Epidemiology, Imperial College London, W2 1PG, UK
Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
Parham et al. Malaria Journal 2012, 11(Suppl 1):P76
http://www.malariajournal.com/content/11/S1/P76
© 2012 Parham et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in
any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
transmission under different environmental conditions, as
well as the potential impacts of climate change. Modelling
and analysis here provides an important contribution to
this goal, enabling direct assessment of the implications of
climatic and environmental conditions on the design of
optimal local vector control strategies, as well as evaluating
the potential impact of climate change on the likely suc-
cess of these interventions. The work also highlights
research gaps and priorities that should be targeted if we
are to more reliably understand future malaria risk in
regions predicted to experience significant changes in cli-
matic variables over the coming decades.
Author details
1Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Department of Infectious Disease
Epidemiology, Imperial College London, W2 1PG, UK. 2Department of
Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, W2 1PG, UK.
3Disease Control and Vector Biology Unit, London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. 4Department of Biological
Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556-0369, USA.
Published: 15 October 2012
doi:10.1186/1475-2875-11-S1-P76
Cite this article as: Parham et al.: Understanding the role of climatic and
environmental variables on the population dynamics of Anopheles
gambiae s.s. and the implications for vector control strategies in
different settings. Malaria Journal 2012 11(Suppl 1):P76.
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Parham et al. Malaria Journal 2012, 11(Suppl 1):P76
http://www.malariajournal.com/content/11/S1/P76
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Understanding the role of climatic and environmental variables on the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae s.s. and the implications for vector control strategies in different settings

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Understanding the role of climatic and environmental variables on the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae s.s. and the implications for vector control strategies in different settings

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