The present recovery in the world economy has now proceeded for almost twice as long as the typical cyclical phase of expansion during the past four decades. Growth in 1985 and prospective growth for 1986 is, however, modest in comparison to both the rates achieved in earlier upswings and that of 1983-4 when world expansion was driven by the strong growth of the US economy. With the deceleration of the US economy from its phase of rapid expansion and the continuing policy caution in the countries of Western Europe and Japan, growth in the major industrialised economies is likely to be of the order of 2.5% in 1986
