Albrecht, F.

Aoki, K.

Fuss, S.

Il Tak, K.

Kindermann, G.

Kraxner, F.

Leduc, S.

Obersteiner, M.

Schepaschenko, D.

Shvidenko, A.

Yamagata, Y.

Yang, J.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

NtiEiiNegativeEmissionsNegative Emissions BECCSCaseStudiesforEuropeSouthKoreaJapanandRussiaBECCSCaseStudiesforEurope,SouthKorea,JapanandRussiaBECCS Case Studies for Europe, South Korea, Japan and RussiaKraxnerF¹*LeducS¹KindermannG¹AokiK¹²FussS¹YangJ³YamagataY¹³IlTakK4SchepaschenkoD¹ShvidenkoA15AlbrechtF¹andObersteinerM¹Kraxner F.¹*, Leduc S.¹, Kindermann G.¹, Aoki K.¹,², Fuss S.¹, Yang J.³, Yamagata Y. ¹,³, Il TakK.4 , SchepaschenkoD.¹, ShvidenkoA.1,5 , Albrecht F.¹ and Obersteiner M.¹ ¹EcosystemsServicesandManagementProgram(ESM)InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA)LaxenburgAustria Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria2 Rural and Renewable Energy Unit, Energy and Climate Change Branch, United Nations Industrial Development Organisation(UNIDO), Vienna, Austria3 Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, JapanCenter for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan4Forest ResourcesDepartment, College of Forest Science, KookminUniversity (KMU), Seoul, Republic of Korea 5SukachevInstitute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federationyy* For questions please contact the corresponding author Florian Kraxner: Tel: +43 2236 807 233, Fax: +43 2236 807 299, E-mail: kraxner@iiasa.ac.atBkddMhdlBackgroundandMethodologyTheuseofbioenergyEuropeplantsbiomass usedheatelectricityTotal energyCO2savedincombinationwithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS)couldmakeapScenario(%ofsubstantialcontributiontoachievinglowatmosphericCO2concentrationleelsTheForthAssessmentReportoftheIntergoernmentalPanelon(% of 20-20-20 target)Total #GJ/yeartdm/yearGJ/yearGJ/yearGJ/yeart_CO2/yrlevels.TheFourthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)considersBECCSas"apotentialrapid-responsetarget)c ( 45%)3324,703,707,678254,254,4692,824,580,0001,552,223,5344,376,803,534507,705,427ClimateChange(IPCC)considersBECCSasapotentialrapid-responsepreventionstrategyforabruptclimatechange"andthusasoneofthec(5%)33,03,0,685,5,69,8,580,000,55,3,53,36,803,5350,05,d(55%)4345440188728294064256341066000017952622805205922280593357853preventionstrategyforabruptclimatechangeandthusasoneoftheoptionsforachievingcompliancewiththetargetsagreedundertheKyotod (55%)4345,440,188,728294,064,2563,410,660,0001,795,262,2805,205,922,280593,357,853e(62%)5528125200000439200000446886000026813160007150176000751449670pgpggyProtocol.Theobjectiveofthepresentedcasestudiesistoanalyzetheine (62%)5528,125,200,000439,200,0004,468,860,0002,681,316,0007,150,176,000751,449,670situBECCScapacityforgreen-fieldbioenergyplantsinfourdifferentiEJKdRiThthiltiMW Scenarios South Korea1050100NmberofPlants50105regions–Europe,Japan,KoreaandRussia.ThetechnicalassessmentisusedtosupportapolicydiscussiononthesuitabilityofBECCSasaNumber of Plants50105Biomassused(tdm/year)554125487957487957usedtosupportapolicydiscussiononthesuitabilityofBECCSasamitigationtool.WeexaminedthetechnicalpotentialofbioenergyNoCCSBiomass used (tdm/year)554,125487,957487,957Heat produced (GJ/year)6,613,7506,613,7506,613,750mitigationtool.Weexaminedthetechnicalpotentialofbioenergyproductionfromsustainablygrownregionalforestbiomass.Inafirststep,NoCCSPower produced (GJ/year)4,208,7504,208,7504,208,750pyggpIIASA’sbiophysicalGlobalForestryModel(G4M)wasappliedtoestimateSubst. emissions (tCO2/year)1,214,5251,214,5251,214,525CCSCapacity(tCO2/year)000CCS Capacity (tCO2/year)000NumberofPlants1110biomassavailability.Inasecondstep,theresultsfromG4MwereusedasinputdatatoIIASA’sengineeringmodelBWhhihtiilidltifldhtdlt(CHP)ThhillliitNumber of Plants1110Biomass used (tdm/year)630,957552,957487,957BeWhere,whichoptimizesscalingandlocationofcoupledheatandpowerplants(CHP).ThegeographicallyexplicitlocationsandcapacitiesobtainedforforestbasedbioenergyplantswerethenoverlaidwithageologicalsuitabilitymapforBECCSHeat produced (GJ/year)8,068,7757,275,1256,613,750Pdd(GJ/)513467546296254208750locationsandcapacitiesobtainedforforest-basedbioenergyplantswerethenoverlaidwithageologicalsuitabilitymapforcarbonstorage(seemapsinthecenteroftheposter)FromthisatheoreticalpotentialforinsituBECCSwasderivedBECCSPower produced (GJ/year)5,134,6754,629,6254,208,750Substemissions(tCO2/year)132034051190475010822500carbonstorage(seemapsinthecenteroftheposter).Fromthis,atheoreticalpotentialforinsituBECCSwasderived(displayedintheregionaltablesontheright).Subst. emissions (tCO2/year)13,203,40511,904,75010,822,500(pygg)EuropeBECCSusingCHPtechnologymightcontributesubstantiallytoreachingthe20-20-20targetsoftheCCS Capacity (tCO2/year)1,481,7211,335,9781,214,525EuropeBECCS,usingCHPtechnology,mightcontributesubstantiallytoreachingthe202020targetsoftheEuropeanUnion(i.e.,generating20percentofthetotalenergydemandfromrenewablesandreducetotalEUemissionsbyMW Scenarios Japan52070EuropeanUnion(i.e.,generating20percentofthetotalenergydemandfromrenewablesandreducetotalEUemissionsby20percentuntil2020,calculatedfroma1990baseline).Bioenergyproduction(fromgreenfieldCHPplants)hasthepNumber of Plants18298p)gyp(gp)technicalpotentialtocontributemorethan60percenttowardachievingthegoalof20percentrenewableenergyshareinBiomass used (tdm/year)117,000716,300712,400theEUby2020.Whenassuminginsitustorageatthelocationofthebioenergyplants,abouthalfofthe“carbon-neutralii”fthbiltldbtdtddtdftiii()NoCCSHeat produced (GJ/year)1,190,4757,288,3537,248,670Powerproduced(GJ/year)75757546380434612790emissions”fromthesebioenergyplantscouldbecaptured,stored,andaccountedforasnegativeemissions(seemap).KPower produced (GJ/year)757,5754,638,0434,612,790Substemissions(tCO2/year)215516627050625036KoreaAlthoughthegeologicalformationssuitableforinsituCarbonStorage(CS)inSouthKoreaarelimited,thetheoreticalpotentialforbetween3(70MWplants)and11(5or20MWplants)green-fieldBECCSplantsithinsitCSBasedonorassmptionstheBECCSeffectSubst. emissions (tCO2/year)215,516627,050625,036CCS Capacity (tCO2/year)000fieldBECCSplantswithinsituCS.Basedonourassumptions,theBECCSeffectcouldremove130000–240000tonsofCOperyearfromtheatmosphereandapy(y)Number of Plants11113couldremove130,000–240,000tonsofCO2peryearfromtheatmosphere,andasimilaramountcouldbesubstitutedforfossilfuelemissions.ThismeansthataboutBiomass used (tdm/year)71,500271,700267,150similaramountcouldbesubstitutedforfossilfuelemissions.Thismeansthatabout3–4%ofthetotaldemandforheatenergyinSouthKoreacouldbeproducedinBECCSHeat produced (GJ/year)727,5132,764,5482,718,251Pdd(GJ/)46296317592581729796gypBECCSplantswithinsituCS.Asaresult,3–4%offossilfuelemissionscouldbePower produced (GJ/year)462,9631,759,2581,729,796Substemissions(tCO2/year)131704237847234389substitutedandadditionallyaccountedforasnegative.ThisBECCSeffectisinddititthltilbibfit(ldltt)Subst. emissions (tCO2/year)131,704237,847234,389CCSCapacity(tCO2/year)2.103.225.73additiontothemultiplebiomassco-benefits(greeneconomy,ruraldevelopmentetc.)andcouldbeusedasonekeyissueforfuturepolicydesignanddecisionmakingCCS Capacity (tCO2/year)2.103.225.73andcouldbeusedasonekeyissueforfuturepolicydesignanddecisionmaking.JapanTh10MWitdttffthbttidMW Scenarios Russia10205010020/50/100NumberofPlants786541205/1/12JapanThe10MWscenarioturnedouttoofferthebestcountry-widecoveragewithits61greenfieldbioenergyfacilitieswhichconsequentlycouldprovidedirectNumber of Plants786541205/1/12Biomass used (Mtdm/year)1.131.753.183.831.76withits61green-fieldbioenergyfacilities,whichconsequentlycouldprovidedirectandindirectco-benefitssuchasdrivingthegreeneconomyieprovidingjobNoCCS(y)Heat produced (PJ/year)11.4617.7932.3538.9917.86andindirectco-benefitssuchasdrivingthegreeneconomy,i.e.providingjobopportunitiesbothatthefacilityandinthebiomassproduction.ThereisatheoreticalPower produced (PJ/year)7.2911.3220.5924.8111.36opportunitiesbothatthefacilityandinthebiomassproduction.Thereisatheoreticalpotentialfor1(50MWplants)to10(10MWplants)green-fieldBECCSplantswithEmission savings from CHP (MtCO2/year)1.883.084.604.182.86NumberofPlants876851343/8/20()()gNumber of Plants876851343/8/20Biomass used (Mtdm/year)1.001.622.352.213.20in-situCS.TheBECCS-effectmightamountto1,3–1,5milliontonsCO2BECCS(y)Heat produced (PJ/year)11.4217.5331.1938.7032.54peryearinadditiontoanamountof12-13milliontonsCO2peryearsubstitutedfossilfuelemissionsBECCSPower produced (PJ/year)7.2711.1519.8524.6320.71substitutedfossilfuelemissions.RssiaEmission savings from CCS (MtCO2/year)0.981.592.302.163.13EmissionsavingsfromCHP(MtCO2/year)210322573711522RussiaThe50MWscenariowouldbeacompromisebetweenhidldhiflffTh100MWEmission savings from CHP (MtCO2/year)2.103.225.737.115.22reachingde-centralareasandtheeconomiesofscaleeffect.The100MWscenariofeaturesstillagooddistributionoverthecountryHowevergivenscenariofeaturesstillagooddistributionoverthecountry.However,givenitsbigsizetheplantsaremoresuitableclosetobigcitiesandindustrialitsbigsize,theplantsaremoresuitableclosetobigcitiesandindustrialzones(Siberia).Totalemissionreductions(directsubstitutionoffossilfuelszones(Siberia).Totalemissionreductions(directsubstitutionoffossilfuelsplusthenegativeemissionseffectoftheBECCSplant)waslowestwiththelow-capacityscenarioandareincreasingwiththeplantcapacityreachingaOmaximumofsome13.5MtCO2/year.Themixedcapacityscenarioshowedthe3rdhighestemissionreductionwhileitfeaturedtherelativehighestthe3rdhighestemissionreductionwhileitfeaturedtherelativehighestemissionsavingseffectthroughitsBECCSplantsKey References:Kraxner F, NordströmE-M, Havlik P, et al. (in press). Global Bioenergy Scenarios -Future Forest Development, Land-Use Implications, and Trade-Offs. Biomass and Bioenergy (issue forthcoming)emissionsavingseffectthroughitsBECCSplants.yAzar C, Lindgren K, Obersteiner M, RiahiK, van VuurenDP, den ElzenMGJ, MöllerstenK, Larson ED (2010). The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy carbon-capture and storage. Climatic Change 100(1):195–202.Kraxner F, Nilsson S, Obersteiner M, Negative emissions from BioEnergyuse, carbon capture and sequestration (BECS)—the case of biomass production by sustainable forest management from semi-natural temperate forests. Biomass Bioenerg24 (2003) 285 –296,,,(p)gyp,p,gy(g)Kraxner F,  Leduc S,  Aoki K,  Fuss S,  Obersteiner M,  SchepaschenkoD,  ShvidenkoA  (2011).  Forest-based bioenergy in the Eurasian context.  Boreal Forests in a Changing World: Challenges and Needs for Action. Proceedings of the international conference IBFRA, SukachevInstitute of Forest SB RAS, 15-21 August 2011, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.,,,ggy,pq()pygpg()Kraxner F, Kindermann G, Leduc S, Aoki K, Obersteiner M. Bioenergy Use for Negative Emissions—Potentials for Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) from a Global Forest Model Combined with Optimized Siting and Scaling of Bioenergy Plants in Europe. Paper presented at the First International Workshop on Biomass & Carbon Capture and Storage, October 2010, University of Orléans, France; http://www.univ-orleans.fr/leo/bccs/index.phpKraxner F, Aoki K, Leduc S, Fuss S, Kindermann G, SchepaschenkoD, ShvidenkoA, Obersteiner M (2012). Negative Emission Through Bioenergy –A Geographically Explicit BECCS Study on Russia. Paper presentedat the 4th International Conference on Applied Energy “Energy Solutions for a Sustainable World”, 5-8 July 2012, Suzhou, China.Kraxner F, Aoki K, Leduc S, Kindermann G, Fuss S, Kinoshita T, Yang J, Yamagata Y, Obersteiner M. BECCS in Japan –The Potential of Negative Emissions from Bioenergy Paper presented at the 2nd Biomass & Carbon Capture and Storage (Bio-CCS) Workshop, 25-26 October 2011, Cardiff University, Wales, UK; http://www.cugtrc.co.uk/categories.html?cid=55LemoineD M, Fuss S, Szolgayova J, Obersteiner M, KammenD M. The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio, Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0269-4, (2011) 1-22. Obersteiner M, Azar Ch, KauppiP, MöllerstenK, Moreira J, Nilsson S, Read P, RiahiK, SchlamadingerB, Yamagata Y, Yan J, van YperseleJ-P, Managing climate risk, Science 294(5543) (2001) 786–787.Kraxner F, Aoki K, Leduc S, Kindermann G, Yang J, Yamagata Y, Il TakK, Obersteiner M. BECCS in South Korea –An Analysis of Negative Emissions Potential for Bioenergy as a Mitigation Tool. Proceedings of the World Renewable Energy Congress (WREC), 8–13 May, 2011, Linköping, Sweden; Linköping University Electronic Press, LinköpingsUniversitet; ISBN: 978-91-7393-070-3; pp: 676-683.ppggpgg()()Acknowledgements: Theauthorswouldliketothank:EC'sFP7GAn°212535CC-TAME(ClimateChange–TerrestrialAdaptationandMitigationinEurope)wwwcctameeu;BIOMASSFUTURESproject(wwwbiomassfutureseu)fundedbytheEC’sIntelligentEnergyProgrammeGAn°IEE08Kraxner, F., Aoki, K., Leduc, S., Kindermann, G., Fuss, S., Yang, J., Yamagata, Y., Il Tak, K. and Obersteiner, M. (in press), BECCS in South Korea -An analysis of negative emissions potential for bioenergy as a mitigation tool. Renewable Energy (issue forthcoming).Kraxner F, Fuss S (eds.), Proceedings, IEA/IIASA BECCS Experts Workshop, 3-4 November 2011, Laxenburg, Austria; http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/workshops/workshop/name,28877,en.htmlThe authors would like to thank: ECs FP7, GA n212535, CC-TAME(Climate Change –Terrestrial Adaptation and Mitigation in Europe ), www.cctame.eu;BIOMASS FUTURES project (www.biomassfutures.eu), funded by the ECs Intelligent Energy Programme, GA nIEE08 653 SI2. 529 241; Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM) at the International Research Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (CGER / NIES), International Research NGO Global Alpine Synergies (GAS, www.global-syn.org), Austria, for their dedicated support to carry out this research.

Negative Emissions - BECCS case studies for Europe, Korea, Japan, and Russia

Negative Emissions - BECCS case studies for Europe, Korea, Japan, and Russia

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