An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia

This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS.Avian flu;international tourism;SARS;dynamic panel data model;static fixed effects model

How flexible are wages in EU accession countries?

The transition to a market economy and increased economic integration have fostered regional disparities in Central and Eastern European countries. This paper investigates whether and to what extent wages could act as an equilibrating mechanism in these countries by adjusting to local market conditions. Using regional data for the 1990s, we estimate static and dynamic wage curve models for Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania. We find empirical evidence for a wage curve in Bulgaria, Hungary and Poland suggesting that wages could help equilibrate labour markets following labour demand shocks. In the case of Romania, the unemployment elasticity of pay is not significantly different from zero. --wage flexibility,panel data,EU accession countries

Corruption, the Resource Curse and Genuine Saving

Genuine saving is an established indicator of weak sustainable development that measures the net level of investment a country makes in produced, natural and human capital less depreciation. Maintaining this net level of investment above zero is a necessary condition for sustainable development. However, data demonstrate that resource-rich countries are systematically failing to make this investment. Alongside the familiar resource curse on economic growth, resource abundance has a negative effect on genuine saving. In fact, the two are closely related insofar as future consumption growth is restricted by insufficient genuine saving now. In this paper, we apply the most convincing conclusion from the literature on economic growth - that it is institutional failure that depresses growth - to data on genuine saving. We regress genuine saving on four indicators of institutional quality in interaction with an indicator of resource abundance. The indicators of institutional quality are corruption, bureaucratic quality, the rule of law and political constraints on the executive. We find that reducing corruption has a positive impact on genuine savings that is robust across different estimation procedures.weak sustainability, corruption, institutional quality, resources, curse

Marginal Intra-Industry Trade and Adjustment Costs - A Hungarian-Polish Comparison

The structure of trade expansion in Hungary and Poland over the period 1990-1998 and its implications for labour-market adjustment is examined. An econometric analysis of trade and employment data suggests that changes in domestic consumption and productivity have significant influence on employment changes. But our results do not provide support for the smooth-adjustment hypothesis of intra-industry trade.Intra-industry trade, adjustment costs

The impact of higher education finance on university participation in the UK (BIS research paper no.11)

In this paper we estimate the separate impacts of upfront fees, grants and maintenance loans on UK higher education participation. We use the panel data element of Labour Force Survey data on the university participation decisions of 18 year olds, covering the period 1992-2007, which saw great variation in HE finance, most importantly the introduction of up-front tuition fees and the abolition of student maintenance grants in 1998 and major reforms of 2004 in which maintenance grants were re-instated and up-front fees were replaced with deferred fees of £3000. To test the robustness of the results, and to help deal with potential measurement error, we create a pseudo-panel of participation by UK region over time and test a number of specifications. Our findings show that the impact of upfront tuition fees in 1998 had a small negative impact on participation among high income groups, while the package of reforms introduced in 2006 had no impact on participation, largely because tuition fees were accompanied by large increases in loans and grants