Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research

This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results from some small scale surveys. We offer a framework for discussing forecasts in the area of marketing, and then review the literature in light of that framework. Particular emphasis is given to a pragmatic interpretation of the literature and findings. Suggestions are made on what research is needed.forecasting, marketing, methods, review, research

Forecasting Methods for Marketing: Review of Empirical Research

This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results from some small scale surveys. We offer a framework for discussing forecasts in the area of marketing,and then review the literature in light of that framework. Particular emphasis is given to a pragmatic interpretation of the literature and findings. Suggestions are made on what research is needed

Icebergs boost phytoplankton growth in the Southern Ocean

Icebergs which calve from the Antarctic ice shelves and drift in the Southern Ocean deliver fresh water, dust and minerogenic particles to the surface ocean along the iceberg's path. Each of these components may have an effect on growth conditions for phytoplankton, as might the mechanical effects of the iceberg keel disturbing the water. Although anecdotal evidence and small-scale surveys suggest that drifting icebergs increase local primary production, no large-scale studies have reported on this possibility in detail. A combination of satellite and automated iceberg tracking data presented here shows that the probability of increased surface phytoplankton biomass was two-fold higher in the wake of a tracked iceberg compared to background biomass fluctuations. Only during the month of February were the effects of icebergs on surface biomass likely to be negative. These results confirm icebergs as a factor affecting phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean and highlight the need for detailed process studies so that responses to future changes in the Antarctic ice sheets may be predicted

An analysis of the small scale surveys of anchovy abundance around Robben and Dassen islands from 2009 to 2013

The results from the small scale hydroacoustic surveys of the abundance of anchovy around Robben and Dassen islands over the 2009-2013 period are analysed under the assumption of a Gaussian form for the trends in density at each island over the course of the winter months. Based primarily on AICc, the model selected from amongst a number of variants has the same trend in abundance with year for the two islands, compatible with the assumption used by Robinson (2013) in his GLM analysis of the impact of closures to pelagic fishing around these islands on penguin recovery, though the data have limited power to distinguish deviations from that assumption. The abundance estimates from the island surveys, though compatible also with the May recruitment survey trends, show appreciably larger variance. This raises the question of whether these small scale surveys merit continuation, unless it is possible to increase their frequency considerably during the winter months each year to improve the overall precision of the integrals over local abundance which they can provide

Comparing the Job Satisfaction and Intention to Leave of Different Categories of Health Workers in Tanzania, Malawi, and South Africa.

Job satisfaction is an important determinant of health worker motivation, retention, and performance, all of which are critical to improving the functioning of health systems in low- and middle-income countries. A number of small-scale surveys have measured the job satisfaction and intention to leave of individual health worker cadres in different settings, but there are few multi-country and multi-cadre comparative studies. The objective of this study was to compare the job satisfaction and intention to leave of different categories of health workers in Tanzania, Malawi, and South Africa. We undertook a cross-sectional survey of a stratified cluster sample of 2,220 health workers, 564 from Tanzania, 939 from Malawi, and 717 from South Africa. Participants completed a self-administered questionnaire, which included demographic information, a 10-item job satisfaction scale, and one question on intention to leave. Multiple regression was used to identify significant predictors of job satisfaction and intention to leave. There were statistically significant differences in job satisfaction and intention to leave between the three countries. Approximately 52.1% of health workers in South Africa were satisfied with their jobs compared to 71% from Malawi and 82.6% from Tanzania (χ2=140.3, p<0.001). 18.8% of health workers in Tanzania and 26.5% in Malawi indicated that they were actively seeking employment elsewhere, compared to 41.4% in South Africa (χ2=83.5, p<0.001). The country differences were confirmed by multiple regression. The study also confirmed that job satisfaction is statistically related to intention to leave. We have shown differences in the levels of job satisfaction and intention to leave between different groups of health workers from Tanzania, Malawi, and South Africa. Our results caution against generalising about the effectiveness of interventions in different contexts and highlight the need for less standardised and more targeted HRH strategies than has been practised to date

Security Vetting System in Kosovo: Challenges and Opportunities

The purpose of this Honors project is to provide insights into the current condition of Kosovo’s vetting system, highlight its major drawbacks, and provide recommendations on how to overcome them. This paper discloses that the vetting system, despite being recently established, remains greatly challenged by political implications and the clannish and/or individual decisions to issue or deny security clearances for civil servants, intelligence and police personnel. The study emphasizes that an oversight in the development of the vetting process may come associated with political and material costs, thus, putting the integrity and objectivity of the whole security system in question. This study uses a mixed-method approach that relies on both primary and secondary data, namely desk research, literature review, small-scale surveys and semi-structured interviews

WIRS through the ages

There was a time before WIRS when what we knew of industrial relations was based primarily upon small scale surveys and case studies. WIRS marked a radical departure in the study of industrial relations for two reasons. First, following in the footsteps of a small number of survey forerunners, it sought to ‘map’ industrial relations in Britain with nationally-representative large-scale surveys of workplace managers, thus permitting investigation of the incidence of practices and changes over time. Second, it focused on industrial relations institutions and outcomes, linking them to the processes of industrial relations that had been the chief focus of studies up until that point. This paper reflects on some of what we have learned in the five surveys over the quarter century since 1980, focusing selectively on the demise of collective IR and the coming of human resource management (HRM), pay determination and the union wage effects, variable pay, the climate of employment relations and union effects on employment growth

Holocene Settlement History of the Dundas Islands Archipelago, Northern British Columbia

As this article demonstrates, the Dundas Islands have been home to humans for at least eleven thousand years. This occupation was at times very extensive; this relatively small group of islands was likely home to a population of several thousand people by about two thousand years ago. While geographically on the “outer shores” of Northern Tsimshian traditional territory, these islands were in no way marginal as locations for settlement. We outline the settlement history of the archipelago by presenting the results of the Dundas Islands Archaeological Project, including the radiocarbon dating program results combined with data from three previous small-scale surveys (Archer 2000; Haggarty 1988; Inglis 1975). We discuss different types of habitation sites and chronological trends in their occupation to argue that the Dundas Islands have been near-continuously occupied for at least the entire Holocene and that this was central, not peripheral, to the broader history of human occupation in the region

EoR Foregrounds: the Faint Extragalactic Radio Sky

A wealth of new data from upgraded and new radio interferometers are rapidly improving and transforming our understanding of the faint extra-galactic radio sky. Indeed the mounting statistics at sub-mJy and uJy flux levels is finally allowing us to get stringent observational constraints on the faint radio population and on the modeling of its the various components. In this paper I will provide a brief overview of the latest results in areas that are potentially important for an accurate treatment of extra-galactic foregrounds in experiments designed to probe the Epoch of Reionization.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures. Invited review at IAU Symposium No. 333 "Peering towards Cosmic Dawn". This submission includes updated figures wrt the version published in the proceedings volume (where an error in the plotting routine produced wrong labels for the y- and x-axis

Control of Congestion in Highly Saturated Networks: Working Paper 251 – Experimental Results and Conclusions

This working paper describes the results and conclusions drawn from experiments in traffic control carried out in Bangkok, Thailand, during a study of the control of highly saturated networks. Other papers in the series are WP 248 (Survey Design and Data Collection) WP 249 (Development of Signal Timings) and WP 250 (Incidents and their Management) This study formed a follow-up to an earlier study reported in WP 220, WP 221 and WP 222