Accelerated rare event sampling

A sampling procedure for the transition matrix Monte Carlo method is introduced that generates the density of states function over a wide parameter range with minimal coding effort.Comment: 7 pages 7 figure

Rare event sampling with stochastic growth algorithms

We discuss uniform sampling algorithms that are based on stochastic growth methods, using sampling of extreme configurations of polymers in simple lattice models as a motivation. We shall show how a series of clever enhancements to a fifty-odd year old algorithm, the Rosenbluth method, led to a cutting-edge algorithm capable of uniform sampling of equilibrium statistical mechanical systems of polymers in situations where competing algorithms failed to perform well. Examples range from collapsed homo-polymers near sticky surfaces to models of protein folding.Comment: First International Conference on Numerical Physic

Forward Flux Sampling for rare event simulations

Rare events are ubiquitous in many different fields, yet they are notoriously difficult to simulate because few, if any, events are observed in a conventiona l simulation run. Over the past several decades, specialised simulation methods have been developed to overcome this problem. We review one recently-developed class of such methods, known as Forward Flux Sampling. Forward Flux Sampling uses a series of interfaces between the initial and final states to calculate rate constants and generate transition paths, for rare events in equilibrium or nonequilibrium systems with stochastic dynamics. This review draws together a number of recent advances, summarizes several applications of the method and highlights challenges that remain to be overcome.Comment: minor typos in the manuscript. J.Phys.:Condensed Matter (accepted for publication

Extreme Quantum Advantage for Rare-Event Sampling

We introduce a quantum algorithm for efficient biased sampling of the rare events generated by classical memoryful stochastic processes. We show that this quantum algorithm gives an extreme advantage over known classical biased sampling algorithms in terms of the memory resources required. The quantum memory advantage ranges from polynomial to exponential and when sampling the rare equilibrium configurations of spin systems the quantum advantage diverges.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures; http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/eqafbs.ht

Practical rare event sampling for extreme mesoscale weather

Extreme mesoscale weather, including tropical cyclones, squall lines, and floods, can be enormously damaging and yet challenging to simulate; hence, there is a pressing need for more efficient simulation strategies. Here we present a new rare event sampling algorithm called Quantile Diffusion Monte Carlo (Quantile DMC). Quantile DMC is a simple-to-use algorithm that can sample extreme tail behavior for a wide class of processes. We demonstrate the advantages of Quantile DMC compared to other sampling methods and discuss practical aspects of implementing Quantile DMC. To test the feasibility of Quantile DMC for extreme mesoscale weather, we sample extremely intense realizations of two historical tropical cyclones, 2010 Hurricane Earl and 2015 Hurricane Joaquin. Our results demonstrate Quantile DMC's potential to provide low-variance extreme weather statistics while highlighting the work that is necessary for Quantile DMC to attain greater efficiency in future applications.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figure

Rare event simulation via importance sampling for linear SPDE's

The goal of this paper is to develop provably efficient importance sampling Monte Carlo methods for the estimation of rare events within the class of linear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). We find that if a spectral gap of appropriate size exists, then one can identify a lower dimensional manifold where the rare event takes place. This allows one to build importance sampling changes of measures that perform provably well even pre-asymptotically (i.e. for small but non-zero size of the noise) without degrading in performance due to infinite dimensionality or due to long simulation time horizons. Simulation studies supplement and illustrate the theoretical results.Accepted manuscrip

Split Sampling: Expectations, Normalisation and Rare Events

In this paper we develop a methodology that we call split sampling methods to estimate high dimensional expectations and rare event probabilities. Split sampling uses an auxiliary variable MCMC simulation and expresses the expectation of interest as an integrated set of rare event probabilities. We derive our estimator from a Rao-Blackwellised estimate of a marginal auxiliary variable distribution. We illustrate our method with two applications. First, we compute a shortest network path rare event probability and compare our method to estimation to a cross entropy approach. Then, we compute a normalisation constant of a high dimensional mixture of Gaussians and compare our estimate to one based on nested sampling. We discuss the relationship between our method and other alternatives such as the product of conditional probability estimator and importance sampling. The methods developed here are available in the R package: SplitSampling

An Infinite Swapping Approach to the Rare-Event Sampling Problem

We describe a new approach to the rare-event Monte Carlo sampling problem. This technique utilizes a symmetrization strategy to create probability distributions that are more highly connected and thus more easily sampled than their original, potentially sparse counterparts. After discussing the formal outline of the approach and devising techniques for its practical implementation, we illustrate the utility of the technique with a series of numerical applications to Lennard-Jones clusters of varying complexity and rare-event character.Comment: 24 pages, 16 figure

Technology Policy, Gender, and Cyberspace

Event based sampling occurs when the time instants are measured everytime the amplitude passes certain pre-defined levels. This is in contrast with classical signal processing where the amplitude is measured at regular time intervals. The signal processing problem is to separate the signal component from noise in both amplitude and time domains. Event based sampling occurs in a variety of applications. The purpose here is to explain the new types of signal processing problems that occur, and identify the need for processing in both the time and event domains. We focus on rotating axles, where amplitude disturbances are caused by vibrations and time disturbances from measurement equipment. As one application, we examine tire pressure monitoring in cars where suppression of time disturbance is of utmost importance