Robust Bayes-Like Estimation: Rho-Bayes estimation

We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution $P$ of $n$ independent random variables within the Bayes paradigm from a non-asymptotic point of view. Assuming that $P$ admits some density $s$ with respect to a given reference measure, we consider a density model $\overline S$ for $s$ that we endow with a prior distribution $\pi$ (with support $\overline S$) and we build a robust alternative to the classical Bayes posterior distribution which possesses similar concentration properties around $s$ whenever it belongs to the model $\overline S$. Furthermore, in density estimation, the Hellinger distance between the classical and the robust posterior distributions tends to 0, as the number of observations tends to infinity, under suitable assumptions on the model and the prior, provided that the model $\overline S$ contains the true density $s$. However, unlike what happens with the classical Bayes posterior distribution, we show that the concentration properties of this new posterior distribution are still preserved in the case of a misspecification of the model, that is when $s$ does not belong to $\overline S$ but is close enough to it with respect to the Hellinger distance.Comment: 68 page

Robust Bayes-Like Estimation: Rho-Bayes estimation

We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution $P$ of $n$ independent random variables within the Bayes paradigm from a non-asymptotic point of view. Assuming that $P$ admits some density $s$ with respect to a given reference measure, we consider a density model $\overline S$ for $s$ that we endow with a prior distribution $\pi$ (with support $\overline S$) and we build a robust alternative to the classical Bayes posterior distribution which possesses similar concentration properties around $s$ whenever it belongs to the model $\overline S$. Furthermore, in density estimation, the Hellinger distance between the classical and the robust posterior distributions tends to 0, as the number of observations tends to infinity, under suitable assumptions on the model and the prior, provided that the model $\overline S$ contains the true density $s$. However, unlike what happens with the classical Bayes posterior distribution, we show that the concentration properties of this new posterior distribution are still preserved in the case of a misspecification of the model, that is when $s$ does not belong to $\overline S$ but is close enough to it with respect to the Hellinger distance.Comment: 68 page

Robust Estimation of Optical Phase Varying as a Continuous Resonant Process

It is well-known that adaptive homodyne estimation of continuously varying optical phase provides superior accuracy in the phase estimate as compared to adaptive or non-adaptive static estimation. However, most phase estimation schemes rely on precise knowledge of the underlying parameters of the system under measurement, and performance deteriorates significantly with changes in these parameters; hence it is desired to develop robust estimation techniques immune to such uncertainties. In related works, we have already shown how adaptive homodyne estimation can be made robust to uncertainty in an underlying parameter of the phase varying as a simplistic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic noise process. Here, we demonstrate robust phase estimation for a more complicated resonant noise process using a guaranteed cost robust filter.Comment: 5 pages, 10 figures, Proceedings of the 2013 Multi-Conference on Systems and Contro

On Weighted Multivariate Sign Functions

Multivariate sign functions are often used for robust estimation and inference. We propose using data dependent weights in association with such functions. The proposed weighted sign functions retain desirable robustness properties, while significantly improving efficiency in estimation and inference compared to unweighted multivariate sign-based methods. Using weighted signs, we demonstrate methods of robust location estimation and robust principal component analysis. We extend the scope of using robust multivariate methods to include robust sufficient dimension reduction and functional outlier detection. Several numerical studies and real data applications demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology.Comment: Keywords: Multivariate sign, Principal component analysis, Data depth, Sufficient dimension reductio

Robust estimation of superhedging prices

We consider statistical estimation of superhedging prices using historical stock returns in a frictionless market with d traded assets. We introduce a plugin estimator based on empirical measures and show it is consistent but lacks suitable robustness. To address this we propose novel estimators which use a larger set of martingale measures defined through a tradeoff between the radius of Wasserstein balls around the empirical measure and the allowed norm of martingale densities. We establish consistency and robustness of these estimators and argue that they offer a superior performance relative to the plugin estimator. We generalise the results by replacing the superhedging criterion with acceptance relative to a risk measure. We further extend our study, in part, to the case of markets with traded options, to a multiperiod setting and to settings with model uncertainty. We also study convergence rates of estimators and convergence of superhedging strategies.Comment: This work will appear in the Annals of Statistics. The above version merges the main paper to appear in print and its online supplemen

Robust Region-of-Attraction Estimation

We propose a method to compute invariant subsets of the region-of-attraction for asymptotically stable equilibrium points of polynomial dynamical systems with bounded parametric uncertainty. Parameter-independent Lyapunov functions are used to characterize invariant subsets of the robust region-of-attraction. A branch-and-bound type refinement procedure reduces the conservatism. We demonstrate the method on an example from the literature and uncertain controlled short-period aircraft dynamics

Robust estimation for ARMA models

This paper introduces a new class of robust estimates for ARMA models. They are M-estimates, but the residuals are computed so the effect of one outlier is limited to the period where it occurs. These estimates are closely related to those based on a robust filter, but they have two important advantages: they are consistent and the asymptotic theory is tractable. We perform a Monte Carlo where we show that these estimates compare favorably with respect to standard M-estimates and to estimates based on a diagnostic procedure.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOS570 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org