Response-surface-model-based system sizing for nearly/net zero energy buildings under uncertainty

Properly treating uncertainty is critical for robust system sizing of nearly/net zero energy buildings (ZEBs). To treat uncertainty, the conventional method conducts Monte Carlo simulations for thousands of possible design options, which inevitably leads to computation load that is heavy or even impossible to handle. In order to reduce the number of Monte Carlo simulations, this study proposes a response-surface-model-based system sizing method. The response surface models of design criteria (i.e., the annual energy match ratio, self-consumption ratio and initial investment) are established based on Monte Carlo simulations for 29 specific design points which are determined by Box-Behnken design. With the response surface models, the overall performances (i.e., the weighted performance of the design criteria) of all design options (i.e., sizing combinations of photovoltaic, wind turbine and electric storage) are evaluated, and the design option with the maximal overall performance is finally selected. Cases studies with 1331 design options have validated the proposed method for 10,000 randomly produced decision scenarios (i.e., users’ preferences to the design criteria). The results show that the established response surface models reasonably predict the design criteria with errors no greater than 3.5% at a cumulative probability of 95%. The proposed method reduces the number of Monte Carlos simulations by 97.8%, and robustly sorts out top 1.1% design options in expectation. With the largely reduced Monte Carlo simulations and high overall performance of the selected design option, the proposed method provides a practical and efficient means for system sizing of nearly/net ZEBs under uncertainty

Optimal designs for enzyme inhibition kinetic models

In this paper we present a new method for determining optimal designs for enzyme inhibition kinetic models, which are used to model the influence of the concentration of a substrate and an inhibition on the velocity of a reaction. The approach uses a nonlinear transformation of the vector of predictors such that the model in the new coordinates is given by an incomplete response surface model. Although there exist no explicit solutions of the optimal design problem for incomplete response surface models so far, the corresponding design problem in the new coordinates is substantially more transparent, such that explicit or numerical solutions can be determined more easily. The designs for the original problem can finally be found by an inverse transformation of the optimal designs determined for the response surface model. We illustrate the method determining explicit solutions for the $D$-optimal design and for the optimal design problem for estimating the individual coefficients in a non-competitive enzyme inhibition kinetic model

Atmospheric response to observed intraseasonal tropical sea surface temperature anomalies

The major tropical convective and circulation features of the intraseasonal or Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are simulated as a passive response to observed MJO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), strengthening the case for ocean-atmosphere interactions being central to MJO dynamics. However, the magnitude of the surface fluxes diagnosed from the MJO cycle in the AGCM, that would feed back onto the ocean in a coupled system, are much weaker than in observations. The phasing of the convective-dynamical model response to the MJO SST anomalies and the associated surface flux anomalies is too fast compared to observations of the (potentially) coupled system, and would act to damp the SST anomalies

Octupole response and stability of spherical shape in heavy nuclei

The isoscalar octupole response of a heavy spherical nucleus is analyzed in a semiclassical model based on the linearized Vlasov equation. The octupole strength function is evaluated with different degrees of approximation. The zero-order fixed-surface response displays a remarkable concentration of strength in the $1\hbar\omega$ and $3\hbar\omega$ regions, in excellent agreement with the quantum single-particle response. The collective fixed-surface response reproduces both the high- and low-energy octupole rsonances, but not the low-lying $3^{-}$ collective states, while the moving-surface response function gives a good qualitative description of all the main features of the octupole response in heavy nuclei. The role of triangular nucleon orbits, that have been related to a possible instability of the spherical shape with respect to octupole-type deformations, is discussed within this model. It is found that, rather than creating instability, the triangular trajectories are the only classical orbits contributing to the damping of low-energy octupole excitations.Comment: 10 pages, Latex file, 7 ps figure

Comparison of response surface methodology and the Nelder and Mead simplex method for optimization in microsimulation models

Microsimulation models are increasingly used in the evaluation of cancer screening. Latent parameters of such models can be estimated by optimization of the goodness-of-fit. We compared the efficiency and accuracy of the Response Surface Methodology and the Nelder and Mead Simplex Method for optimization of microsimulation models. To this end, we tested several automated versions of both methods on a small microsimulation model, as well as on a standard set of test functions. With respect to accuracy, Response Surface Methodology performed better in case of optimization of the microsimulation model, whereas the results for the test functions were rather variable. The Nelder and Mead Simplex Method performed more efficiently than Response Surface Methodology, both for the microsimulation model and the test functions.health;simulation;optimization

Explanation for twin tunnelling-induced surface settlements by changes in soil stiffness on account of stress history

In this article, a group of representative centrifuge tests were selected for numerical modelling to explain the surface settlements induced by sequential twin tunnelling. Both Modified Cam Clay model (MCC) and Three-Surface Kinematic Hardening model (3-SKH) were adopted in the simulation, which indicated the use of 3-SKH model conduced to mimicking more closely centrifuge model response. Via performing more contrastive numerical analyses with 3-SKH model, the influence of the first tunnel event on the stiffness of the soil around the second tunnel was quantitatively investigated, whereby the mechanism behind the observed surface settlements was finally made clear

Meta Response Surface Design for General and Partial Equilibrium Models

Due to the complexity of general and partial equilibrium models, conventional sensitivity analysis, qualitative reviews or literature-based meta-analyses do not allow for detailed assessments of the role of individual parameters and policy shocks across different models. Therefore, the partial equilibrium model “GSIM” and a single country CGE are employed to generate synthetic scenarios based on randomly specified combinations of base data, elasticities and tariff changes selected from previously specified, plausible ranges. The synthetic meta-data has the advantage that the values of explanatory variables are measured exactly. This makes it possible to explore complex issues of functional form and interaction between variables in the estimation of the response surface of each model as well as for a joint response surface of both models. The results indicate that firstand second-order polynomials provide sufficient approximations of the model responses, and especially for the CGE model, interaction terms of elasticities with policy variables play an important role. Furthermore, simultaneous estimation of a response surface of scenarios from both models proves to be feasible and enables quantitative comparisons of different model output, e.g. welfare measures.General Equilibrium, Partial Equilibrium, Response Surface Design, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Surface roughness and interfacial slip boundary condition for quartz crystal microbalances

The response of a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) is considered using a wave equation for the substrate and the Navier-Stokes equations for a finite liquid layer under a slip boundary condition. It is shown that when the slip length to shear wave penetration depth is small, the first order effect of slip is only present in the frequency response. Importantly, in this approximation the frequency response satisfies an additivity relation with a net response equal to a Kanazawa liquid term plus an additional Sauerbrey "rigid" liquid mass. For the slip length to result in an enhanced frequency decrease compared to a no-slip boundary condition, it is shown that the slip length must be negative so that the slip plane is located on the liquid side of the interface. It is argued that the physical application of such a negative slip length could be to the liquid phase response of a QCM with a completely wetted rough surface. Effectively, the model recovers the starting assumption of additivity used in the trapped mass model for the liquid phase response of a QCM having a rough surface. When applying the slip boundary condition to the rough surface problem, slip is not at a molecular level, but is a formal hydrodynamic boundary condition which relates the response of the QCM to that expected from a QCM with a smooth surface. Finally, possible interpretations of the results in terms of acoustic reflectivity are developed and the potential limitations of the additivity result should vapour trapping occur are discussed