Reference prior for Bayesian estimation of seismic fragility curves

One of the crucial quantities of probabilistic seismic risk assessment studies is the fragility curve, which represents the probability of failure of a mechanical structure conditional to a scalar measure derived from the seismic ground motion. Estimating such curves is a difficult task because for most structures of interest, few data are available, whether they come from complex numerical simulations or experimental campaigns. For this reason, a wide range of the methods of the literature rely on a parametric log-normal model. Bayesian approaches allow for efficient learning of the model parameters. However, for small data set sizes, the choice of the prior distribution has a non-negligible influence on the posterior distribution, and therefore on any resulting estimate. We propose a thorough study of this parametric Bayesian estimation problem when the data are binary (i.e. data indicate the state of the structure, failure or non-failure). Using the reference prior theory as a support, we suggest an objective approach for the prior choice to simulate a posteriori fragility curves. This approach leads to the Jeffreys prior and we prove that this prior depends only of the ground motion characteristics, making its calculation suitable for any equipment in an industrial installation subjected to the same seismic hazard. Our proposal is theoretically and numerically compared to those classically proposed in the literature by considering three different case studies. The results show the robustness and advantages of the Jeffreys prior in terms of regularization (no degenerate estimations) and stability (no outliers of the parameters) for fragility curves estimation

Reference Priors For Non-Normal Two-Sample Problems

The reference prior algorithm (Berger and Bernardo, 1992) is applied to locationscale models with any regular sampling density. A number of two-sample problems is analyzed in this general context, extending the dierence, ratio and product of Normal means problems outside Normality, while explicitly considering possibly dierent sizes for each sample. Since the reference prior turns out to be improper in all cases, we examine existence of the resulting posterior distribution and its moments under sampling from scale mixtures of Normals. In the context of an empirical example, it is shown that a reference posterior analysis is numerically feasible and can display some sensitivity to the actual sampling distributions. This illustrates the practical importance of questioning the Normality assumption.Behrens-Fisher problem;Fieller-Creasy problem;Gibbs sampling;Jeffreys' prior;location-scale model;posterior existence;product of means;scale mixtures of normals;skewness

Fuzzy sets in nonparametric Bayes regression

A simple Bayesian approach to nonparametric regression is described using fuzzy sets and membership functions. Membership functions are interpreted as likelihood functions for the unknown regression function, so that with the help of a reference prior they can be transformed to prior density functions. The unknown regression function is decomposed into wavelets and a hierarchical Bayesian approach is employed for making inferences on the resulting wavelet coefficients.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921708000000084 the IMS Collections (http://www.imstat.org/publications/imscollections.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Comparison of Empirical Bayes and Reference Prior Methods for Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis

AbstractIn Bayesian analysis of spatio-temporal data, the problem of selecting prior distribution for model parameters is of great demand. This paper considers two most popular approaches, empirical Bayes and reference prior, for Bayesian inference. We then use simulation to compare the frequentist properties of these two methods. Since, posterior propriety of the reference prior is only established under separable correlation models, this comparison is concentrated on this case