Local Quantile Regression

Quantile regression is a technique to estimate conditional quantile curves. It provides a comprehensive picture of a response contingent on explanatory variables. In a flexible modeling framework, a specific form of the conditional quantile curve is not a priori fixed. % Indeed, the majority of applications do not per se require specific functional forms. This motivates a local parametric rather than a global fixed model fitting approach. A nonparametric smoothing estimator of the conditional quantile curve requires to balance between local curvature and stochastic variability. In this paper, we suggest a local model selection technique that provides an adaptive estimator of the conditional quantile regression curve at each design point. Theoretical results claim that the proposed adaptive procedure performs as good as an oracle which would minimize the local estimation risk for the problem at hand. We illustrate the performance of the procedure by an extensive simulation study and consider a couple of applications: to tail dependence analysis for the Hong Kong stock market and to analysis of the distributions of the risk factors of temperature dynamics

Using Quantile Regression for Duration Analysis

Quantile regression methods are emerging as a popular technique in econometrics and biometrics for exploring the distribution of duration data. This paper discusses quantile regression for duration analysis allowing for a flexible specification of the functional relationship and of the error distribution. Censored quantile regression address the issue of right censoring of the response variable which is common in duration analysis. We compare quantile regression to standard duration models. Quantile regression do not impose a proportional effect of the covariates on the hazard over the duration time. However, the method can not take account of time{varying covariates and it has not been extended so far to allow for unobserved heterogeneity and competing risks. We also discuss how hazard rates can be estimated using quantile regression methods. A small application with German register data on unemployment duration for younger workers demonstrates the applicability and the usefulness of quantile regression for empirical duration analysis. --censored quantile regression,unemployment duration,unobserved heterogeneity,hazard rate

M-quantile regression analysis of temporal gene expression data

In this paper, we explore the use of M-regression and M-quantile coefficients to detect statistical differences between temporal curves that belong to different experimental conditions. In particular, we consider the application of temporal gene expression data. Here, the aim is to detect genes whose temporal expression is significantly different across a number of biological conditions. We present a new method to approach this problem. Firstly, the temporal profiles of the genes are modelled by a parametric M-quantile regression model. This model is particularly appealing to small-sample gene expression data, as it is very robust against outliers and it does not make any assumption on the error distribution. Secondly, we further increase the robustness of the method by summarising the M-quantile regression models for a large range of quantile values into an M-quantile coefficient. Finally, we employ a Hotelling T2-test to detect significant differences of the temporal M-quantile profiles across conditions. Simulated data shows the increased robustness of M-quantile regression methods over standard regression methods. We conclude by using the method to detect differentially expressed genes from time-course microarray data on muscular dystrophy

Factorisable Multitask Quantile Regression

A multivariate quantile regression model with a factor structure is proposed to study data with many responses of interest. The factor structure is allowed to vary with the quantile levels, which makes our framework more flexible than the classical factor models. The model is estimated with the nuclear norm regularization in order to accommodate the high dimensionality of data, but the incurred optimization problem can only be efficiently solved in an approximate manner by off-the-shelf optimization methods. Such a scenario is often seen when the empirical risk is non-smooth or the numerical procedure involves expensive subroutines such as singular value decomposition. To ensure that the approximate estimator accurately estimates the model, non-asymptotic bounds on error of the the approximate estimator is established. For implementation, a numerical procedure that provably marginalizes the approximate error is proposed. The merits of our model and the proposed numerical procedures are demonstrated through Monte Carlo experiments and an application to finance involving a large pool of asset returns