Lockdown: Dynamic Control-Flow Integrity

Applications written in low-level languages without type or memory safety are especially prone to memory corruption. Attackers gain code execution capabilities through such applications despite all currently deployed defenses by exploiting memory corruption vulnerabilities. Control-Flow Integrity (CFI) is a promising defense mechanism that restricts open control-flow transfers to a static set of well-known locations. We present Lockdown, an approach to dynamic CFI that protects legacy, binary-only executables and libraries. Lockdown adaptively learns the control-flow graph of a running process using information from a trusted dynamic loader. The sandbox component of Lockdown restricts interactions between different shared objects to imported and exported functions by enforcing fine-grained CFI checks. Our prototype implementation shows that dynamic CFI results in low performance overhead.Comment: ETH Technical Repor

The great lockdown: was it worth it? CEPS Policy Insights No 2020-11 / May 2020

What the IMF calls the ‘great lockdown’ has thrown Europe and the global economy into a deep recession. When putting their countries into lockdown, governments essentially pushed the panic button, mostly in the face of rising fatalities. Was this the right choice? The answer to this question is usually framed in terms of the lives saved versus jobs lost. However, a closer look at the actual expenses for medical care that the pandemic has engendered so far and a bottomup calculation for hospitalisation costs suggests that the economic costs of the great lockdown, while very large, might still be lower than the medical costs that an unchecked spread of the virus would have caused. There might thus be no need to assign an economic value to the lives saved to come to the conclusion that a

COVID-19 societal response captured by seismic noise in China and Italy

Seismic noise with frequencies above 1 Hz is often called cultural noise and is generally correlated quite well with human activities. Recently, cities in mainland China and Italy imposed lockdown restrictions in response to COVID-19, which gave us an unprecedented opportunity to study the relationship between seismic noise above 1 Hz and human activities. Using seismic records from stations in China and Italy, we show that seismic noise above 1 Hz was primarily generated by the local transportation systems. The lockdown of the cities and the imposition of travel restrictions led to a ~4-12 dB energy decrease in seismic noise in mainland China. Data also show that different Chinese cities experienced distinct periods of diminished cultural noise, related to differences in local response to the epidemic. In contrast, there was only ~1-6 dB energy decrease of seismic noise in Italy, after the country was put under a lockdown. The noise data indicate that traffic flow did not decrease as much in Italy, but show how different cities reacted distinctly to the lockdown conditions

Mobility traces and spreading of COVID-19

We use human mobility models, for which we are experts, and attach a virus infection dynamics to it, for which we are not experts but have taken it from the literature, including recent publications. This results in a virus spreading dynamics model. The results should be verified, but because of the current time pressure, we publish them in their current state. Recommendations for improvement are welcome. We come to the following conclusions: 1. Complete lockdown works. About 10 days after lockdown, the infection dynamics dies down. This assumes that lockdown is complete, which can be guaranteed in the simulation, but not in reality. Still, it gives strong support to the argument that it is never too late for complete lockdown. 2. As a rule of thumb, we would suggest complete lockdown no later than once 10% of hospital capacities available for COVID-19 are in use, and possibly much earlier. This is based on the following insights: a. Even after lockdown, the infection dynamics continues at home, leading to another tripling of the cases before the dynamics is slowed. b. There will be many critical cases coming from people who were infected before lockdown. Because of the exponential growth dynamics, their number will be large. c. Researchers with more detailed disease progression models should improve upon these statements. 3. Our simulations say that complete removal of infections at child care, primary schools, workplaces and during leisure activities will not be enough to sufficiently slow down the infection dynamics. It would have been better, but still not sufficient, if initiated earlier. 4. Infections in public transport play an important role. In the simulations shown later, removing infections in the public transport system reduces the infection speed and the height of the peak by approximately 20%. Evidently, this depends on the infection parameters, which are not well known. – This does not point to reducing public transport capacities as a reaction to the reduced demand, but rather use it for lower densities of passengers and thus reduced infection rates. 5. In our simulations, removal of infections at child care, primary schools, workplaces, leisure activities, and in public transport may barely have been sufficient to control the infection dynamics if implemented early on. Now according to our simulations it is too late for this, and (even) harsher measures will have to be initiated until possibly a return to such a restrictive, but still somewhat functional regime will again be possible. Evidently, all of these results have to be taken with care. They are based on preliminary infection parameters taken from the literature, used inside a model that has more transport/movement details than all others that we are aware of but still not enough to describe all aspects of reality, and suffer from having to write computer code under time pressure. Optimally, they should be confirmed independently. Short of that, given current knowledge we believe that they provide justification for “complete lockdown” at the latest when about 10% of available hospital capacities for COVID-19 are in use (and possibly earlier; we are no experts of hospital capabilities). What was not investigated in detail in our simulations was contact tracing, i.e. tracking down the infection chains and moving all people along infection chains into quarantine. The case of Singapore has so far shown that this may be successful. Preliminary simulation of that tactic shows that it is difficult to implement for COVID-19, since the incubation time is rather long, people are contagious before they feel sick, or maybe never feel sufficiently sick at all. We will investigate in future work if and how contact tracing can be used together with a restrictive, but not totally locked down regime. When opening up after lockdown, it would be important to know the true fraction of people who are already immune, since that would slow down the infection dynamics by itself. For Wuhan, the currently available numbers report that only about 0.1% of the population was infected, which would be very far away from “herd immunity”. However, there have been and still may be many unknown infections (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH 2020)

Heterogeneous social interactions and the COVID-19 lockdown outcome in a multi-group SEIR model

We study variants of the SEIR model for interpreting some qualitative features of the statistics of the Covid-19 epidemic in France. Standard SEIR models distinguish essentially two regimes: either the disease is controlled and the number of infected people rapidly decreases, or the disease spreads and contaminates a significant fraction of the population until herd immunity is achieved. After lockdown, at first sight it seems that social distancing is not enough to control the outbreak. We discuss here a possible explanation, namely that the lockdown is creating social heterogeneity: even if a large majority of the population complies with the lockdown rules, a small fraction of the population still has to maintain a normal or high level of social interactions, such as health workers, providers of essential services, etc. This results in an apparent high level of epidemic propagation as measured through re-estimations of the basic reproduction ratio. However, these measures are limited to averages, while variance inside the population plays an essential role on the peak and the size of the epidemic outbreak and tends to lower these two indicators. We provide theoretical and numerical results to sustain such a view

The economic impact of COVID-19 on the EU: From the frying pan into the fire. EPC Discussion Paper 23 April 2020

For the time being, the health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will, for obvious reasons related to the devastating effects of the virus, continue to be at the forefront of public policy. However, the concerns over its economic impact are already omnipresent, too. One of the great uncertainties of this crisis is the nature of its long-term economic impact. It will most certainly be bad, and almost certainly be worse than the financial and economic crisis of a decade ago, with many referring to the Great Depression of the 1930s