Residual analysis methods for space--time point processes with applications to earthquake forecast models in California

Modern, powerful techniques for the residual analysis of spatial-temporal point process models are reviewed and compared. These methods are applied to California earthquake forecast models used in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Assessments of these earthquake forecasting models have previously been performed using simple, low-power means such as the L-test and N-test. We instead propose residual methods based on rescaling, thinning, superposition, weighted K-functions and deviance residuals. Rescaled residuals can be useful for assessing the overall fit of a model, but as with thinning and superposition, rescaling is generally impractical when the conditional intensity $\lambda$ is volatile. While residual thinning and superposition may be useful for identifying spatial locations where a model fits poorly, these methods have limited power when the modeled conditional intensity assumes extremely low or high values somewhere in the observation region, and this is commonly the case for earthquake forecasting models. A recently proposed hybrid method of thinning and superposition, called super-thinning, is a more powerful alternative.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS487 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A STUDY OF OUTCOME OF ROSE K LENSES IN KERATOCONUS

Background: Cornea is affected by several distinct disorders that produce marked thinning without significant inflammation. They are keratoconus, posterior keratoconus, pellucid marginal degeneration, and keratoglobus. keratoconus and posterior keratoconus produces central and inferior thinning with ectasia. Materials and Methods: All patients of keratoconus in age group 15 to 60 years at various stages of progression were included this was a prospective study, 20 Eyes of 15 patients of keratoconus in age group of 15 to 60 years at various stages of progression were included in the study. Visual acuity, slit lamp Biomicroscopy was done, corneal topography and Fundus examination was done by both direct and indirect ophthalmoscopy with full dilatation when possible. Results: Subjective score of pre rose k eyes when compared to post rose k lens eye was highly significant, which signifies that the same patient was highly satisfied after wearing rose k lens. Conclusion: Present study observed that, Rose K lenses improved patient's overall quality of life in moderate and advance cases of keratoconus. KEYWORDS: Keratoconus; Pellucid marginal degeneration; Keratoglobus; rose k lenses

A STUDY OF OUTCOME OF ROSE K LENSES IN KERATOCONUS

Background: Cornea is affected by several distinct disorders that produce marked thinning without significant inflammation. They are keratoconus, posterior keratoconus, pellucid marginal degeneration, and keratoglobus. keratoconus and posterior keratoconus produces central and inferior thinning with ectasia. Materials and Methods: All patients of keratoconus in age group 15 to 60 years at various stages of progression were included this was a prospective study, 20 Eyes of 15 patients of keratoconus in age group of 15 to 60 years at various stages of progression were included in the study. Visual acuity, slit lamp Biomicroscopy was done, corneal topography and Fundus examination was done by both direct and indirect ophthalmoscopy with full dilatation when possible. Results: Subjective score of pre rose k eyes when compared to post rose k lens eye was highly significant, which signifies that the same patient was highly satisfied after wearing rose k lens. Conclusion: Present study observed that, Rose K lenses improved patient\u27s overall quality of life in moderate and advance cases of keratoconus. KEYWORDS: Keratoconus; Pellucid marginal degeneration; Keratoglobus; rose k lenses

Critical Casimir force in 4^4He films: confirmation of finite-size scaling

We present new capacitance measurements of critical Casimir force-induced thinning of $^4$He films near the superfluid/normal transition, focused on the region below $T_{\lambda}$ where the effect is the greatest. $^4$He films of 238, 285, and 340 \AA thickness are adsorbed on N-doped silicon substrates with roughness $\approx 8 {\AA}$. The Casimir force scaling function $\vartheta$, deduced from the thinning of these three films, collapses onto a single universal curve, attaining a minimum $\vartheta = -1.30 \pm 0.03$ at $x=td^{1/\nu}=-9.7\pm 0.8 {\AA}^{1/\nu}$. The collapse confirms the finite-size scaling origin of the dip in the film thickness. Separately, we also confirm the presence down to $2.13 K$ of the Goldstone/surface fluctuation force, which makes the superfluid film $\sim 2 {\AA}$ thinner than the normal film.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, submitted to PR

"Marginal pinching" in soap films

We discuss the behaviour of a thin soap film facing a frame element: the pressure in the Plateau border around the frame is lower than the film pressure, and the film thins out over a certain distance lambda(t), due to the formation of a well-localized pinched region of thickness h(t) and extension w(t). We construct a hydrodynamic theory for this thinning process, assuming a constant surface tension: Marangoni effects are probably important only at late stages, where instabilitites set in. We find lambda(t) ~ t^{1/4}, and for the pinch dimensions h(t) ~ t^{-1/2}$ and w(t) ~ t^{-1/4}. These results may play a useful role for the discussion of later instabilitites leading to a global film thinning and drainage, as first discussed by K. Mysels under the name ``marginal regeneration''.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figure

The reliability of musculoskeletal ultrasound in the detection of cartilage abnormalities at the metacarpo-phalangeal joints

SummaryObjectiveTo assess the reliability of ultrasound (US) in detecting cartilage abnormalities at the metacarpo-phalangeal (MCP) joints in people with cartilage pathology.MethodsNine expert ultrasonographers initially achieved consensus on definitions and scanning protocols. They then examined the second to fifth MCP joints of the dominant hand of eight people with hand osteoarthritis (OA). US examinations were conducted in two rounds, with independent blinded evaluations of cartilage lesions. Global cartilage abnormalities were assessed by applying a dichotomous (presence/absence) score; in addition, the following lesions were evaluated using the same scoring system: loss of anechoic structure and/or thinning of the cartilage layer, and irregularities and/or loss of sharpness of at least one cartilage margin. Reliability was assessed using kappa (k) coefficients.ResultsThirty-two joints were examined. Intra-observer k values ranged from 0.52 to 1 for global cartilage abnormalities; k values ranged from 0.54 to 0.94 for loss of anechoic structure and/or thinning of cartilage layer and from 0.59 to 1 for irregularities and/or loss of sharpness of at least one cartilage margin. Values of k for inter-observer reliability were 0.80 for global cartilage abnormalities, 0.62 for loss of anechoic structure and/or thinning of cartilage layer, and 0.39 for irregularities and/or loss of sharpness of at least one cartilage margin.ConclusionUS is a reliable imaging modality for the detection of cartilage abnormalities in patients with cartilage pathology in the MCP joints. The analysis of specific cartilage measures showed more variable results that may be improved by modifying definitions and further standardization of US techniques