Interannual variability of tropospheric composition:the influence of changes in emissions, meteorology and clouds

We have run a chemistry transport model (CTM) to systematically examine the drivers of interannual variability of tropospheric composition during 1996-2000. This period was characterised by anomalous meteorological conditions associated with the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 and intense wildfires, which produced a large amount of pollution. On a global scale, changing meteorology (winds, temperatures, humidity and clouds) is found to be the most important factor driving interannual variability of NO2 and ozone on the timescales considered. Changes in stratosphere-troposphere exchange, which are largely driven by meteorological variability, are found to play a particularly important role in driving ozone changes. The strong influence of emissions on NO2 and ozone interannual variability is largely confined to areas where intense biomass burning events occur. For CO, interannual variability is almost solely driven by emission changes, while for OH meteorology dominates, with the radiative influence of clouds being a very strong contributor. Through a simple attribution analysis for 1996-2000 we conclude that changing cloudiness drives 25% of the interannual variability of OH over Europe by affecting shortwave radiation. Over Indonesia this figure is as high as 71%. Changes in cloudiness contribute a small but non-negligible amount (up to 6%) to the interannual variability of ozone over Europe and Indonesia. This suggests that future assessments of trends in tropospheric oxidizing capacity should account for interannual variability in cloudiness, a factor neglected in many previous studies

Seasonal and interannual variability of North American isoprene emissions as determined by formaldehyde column measurements from space

Formaldehyde (HCHO) columns measured from space by solar UV backscatter allow mapping of reactive hydrocarbon emissions. The principal contributor to these emissions during the growing season is the biogenic hydrocarbon isoprene, which is of great importance for driving regional and global tropospheric chemistry. We present seven years (1995-2001) of HCHO column data for North America from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME), and show that the general seasonal and interannual variability of these data is consistent with knowledge of isoprene emission. There are some significant regional discrepancies with the seasonal patterns predicted from current isoprene emission models, and we suggest that these may reflect flaws in the models. The interannual variability of HCHO columns observed by GOME appears to follow the interannual variability of surface temperature, as expected from current isoprene emission models

Interannual sea-air CO2 flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer scheme

Interannual anomalies in the sea–air carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange have been estimated from surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure measurements. Available data are sufficient to constrain these anomalies in large parts of the tropical and North Pacific and in the North Atlantic, in some areas covering the period from the mid 1980s to 2011. Global interannual variability is estimated as about 0.31 Pg Cyr−1 (temporal standard deviation 1993–2008). The tropical Pacific accounts for a large fraction of this global variability, closely tied to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Anomalies occur more than 6 months later in the east than in the west. The estimated amplitude and ENSO response are roughly consistent with independent information from atmospheric oxygen data. This both supports the variability estimated from surface-ocean carbon data and demonstrates the potential of the atmospheric oxygen signal to constrain ocean biogeochemical processes. The ocean variability estimated from surface-ocean carbon data can be used to improve land CO2 flux estimates from atmospheric inversions

Multiple causes of interannual sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean

The eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean is subject to interannual fluctuations of sea surface temperatures, with climatic impacts on the surrounding continents. The dynamic mechanism underlying Atlantic temperature variability is thought to be similar to that of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific, where air-sea coupling leads to a positive feedback between surface winds in the western basin, sea surface temperature in the eastern basin, and equatorial oceanic heat content. Here we use a suite of observational data, climate reanalysis products, and general circulation model simulations to reassess the factors driving the interannual variability. We show that some of the warm events can not be explained by previously identified equatorial wind stress forcing and ENSO-like dynamics. Instead, these events are driven by a mechanism in which surface wind forcing just north of the equator induces warm ocean temperature anomalies that are subsequently advected toward the equator. We find the surface wind patterns are associated with long-lived subtropical sea surface temperature anomalies and suggest they therefore reflect a link between equatorial and subtropical Atlantic variability

Climatology on Mars: interannual variability of mean fields

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The seasonal and interannual variability of total ozone as revealed by the BUV Nimbus-4 experiment

The BUV/Nimbus-4 total ozone data is analyzed with emphasis on the seasonal and interannual variability for the period April 1970 to April 1972. An objective analysis using a Fourier expansion shows the annual wave dominates at mid and high latitudes where the semiannual wave becomes significant in the tropics. A small interannual difference is detected and is most likely due to changes in the general circulation

Evaluation of the inter-annual variability of stratospheric chemical composition in chemistry-climate models using ground-based multi species time series

The variability of stratospheric chemical composition occurs on a broad spectrum of timescales, ranging from day to decades. A large part of the variability appears to be driven by external forcings such as volcanic aerosols, solar activity, halogen loading, levels of greenhouse gases (GHG), and modes of climate variability (quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)). We estimate the contributions of different external forcings to the interannual variability of stratospheric chemical composition and evaluate how well 3-D chemistry-climate models (CCMs) can reproduce the observed response-forcing relationships. We carry out multivariate regression analyses on long time series of observed and simulated time series of several traces gases in order to estimate the contributions of individual forcings and unforced variability to their internannual variability. The observations are typically decadal time series of ground-based data from the international Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and the CCM simulations are taken from the CCMVal-2 REF-B1 simulations database. The chemical species considered are column O3, HCl, NO2, and N2O. We check the consistency between observations and model simulations in terms of the forced and internal components of the total interannual variability (externally forced variability and internal variability) and identify the driving factors in the interannual variations of stratospheric chemical composition over NDACC measurement sites. Overall, there is a reasonably good agreement between regression results from models and observations regarding the externally forced interannual variability. A much larger fraction of the observed and modelled interannual variability is explained by external forcings in the tropics than in the extratropics, notably in polar regions. CCMs are able to reproduce the amplitudes of responses in chemical composition to specific external forcings. However, CCMs tend to underestimate very substantially the internal variability and hence the total interannual variability for almost all species considered. This lack of internal variability in CCMs might partly originate from the surface forcing of these CCMs by analysed SSTs. The results illustrate the potential of NDACC ground-based observations for evaluating CCMs

Response of Pacific-sector Antarctic ice shelves to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Satellite observations over the past two decades have revealed increasing loss of grounded ice in West Antarctica, associated with floating ice shelves that have been thinning. Thinning reduces an ice-shelf's ability to restrain grounded-ice discharge, yet our understanding of the climate processes that drive mass changes is limited. Here, we use ice-shelf height data from four satellite altimeter missions (1994-2017) to show a direct link between ice-shelf-height variability in the Antarctic Pacific sector and changes in regional atmospheric circulation driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This link is strongest from Dotson to Ross ice shelves and weaker elsewhere. During intense El Niño years, height increase by accumulation exceeds the height decrease by basal melting, but net ice-shelf mass declines as basal ice loss exceeds lower-density snow gain. Our results demonstrate a substantial response of Amundsen Sea ice shelves to global and regional climate variability, with rates of change in height and mass on interannual timescales that can be comparable to the longer-term trend, and with mass changes from surface accumulation offsetting a significant fraction of the changes in basal melting. This implies that ice-shelf height and mass variability will increase as interannual atmospheric variability increases in a warming climate

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2 concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2 and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability, but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here, we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2 and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2 and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of non-seasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer term flux variability