Physical drivers of the summer 2019 North Pacific marine heatwave.

Summer 2019 observations show a rapid resurgence of the Blob-like warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that produced devastating marine impacts in the Northeast Pacific during winter 2013/2014. Unlike the original Blob, Blob 2.0 peaked in the summer, a season when little is known about the physical drivers of such events. We show that Blob 2.0 primarily results from a prolonged weakening of the North Pacific High-Pressure System. This reduces surface winds and decreases evaporative cooling and wind-driven upper ocean mixing. Warmer ocean conditions then reduce low-cloud fraction, reinforcing the marine heatwave through a positive low-cloud feedback. Using an atmospheric model forced with observed SSTs, we also find that remote SST forcing from the central equatorial and, surprisingly, the subtropical North Pacific Ocean contribute to the weakened North Pacific High. Our multi-faceted analysis sheds light on the physical drivers governing the intensity and longevity of summertime North Pacific marine heatwaves

Executive summary climate change and the East Midlands economy

This report examines the way in which the weather has influenced the East Midlands economy in recent years and considers how climate change may influence this relationship during the 21st century. It considers how changing weather patterns will impact upon energy, water and flood risk, transport, agriculture, the built environment, tourism and health in the region

Nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency in buildings: A case study of a nursing home

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. We conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events

Heat-Ready: heatwave awareness, preparedness and adaptive capacity in aged care facilities

AbstractThis study identifies the current policies and strategies Australian ACFs use to keep residents well, and highlights the barriers to heatwave adaptation and maintaining wellness in the residential aged during periods of extreme heat. As the Australian population ages, planning for the health effects of extreme heat in elderly residents is critical to ensure wellness in this population group is maintained.Aims were to: 1) investigate current heat-wave planning, policies, staff knowledge and heat prevention strategies and 2) identify barriers to adaptation and successful implementation of adequate heat-wave health care in ACFs in three Australian states (NSW, Queensland and South Australia).Residential ACFs were identified across three states using Department of Health and Ageing databases, white pages and internet searching. After removal of duplicates, 1,561 facilities were invited to participate in the study. Each participating facility was asked to provide informed consent and invited to select one administrative and one clinical staff member to participate in a 15 minute Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI). Participants were asked about their knowledge of the effects of heat on the elderly and to detail current plans and policies which addressed residents’ health during heat-waves, and barriers to care during periods of extreme heat. Data was entered into a purpose-built database and analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 19.Two hundred and eighty seven (287) facilities (18%) participated in the telephone interview. The ACFs enrolled represented 20,928 Australian aged care residents.  Ninety percent of facilities had a current ACF emergency plan, although only 30% included heat-wave emergency planning. Heatwave policies were not routine in all ACFs in any state. Staff used a range of strategies to keep residents cool in extreme heat, although strategies were not consistent across all states or facilities. The issues raised in relation to clinical care in this group can be synthesised into four key messages; cooling, hydration, monitoring and emergency planning, which, at a practical level are essential to maintain the health of older people in very hot weather.Please cite this report as: Black, DA, Veitch, C, Wilson, LA, Hansen, A 2013 Heat-Ready: Heatwave awareness, preparedness and adaptive capacity in aged care facilities in three Australian states: New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 47 pp.AbstractThis study identifies the current policies and strategies Australian ACFs use to keep residents well, and highlights the barriers to heatwave adaptation and maintaining wellness in the residential aged during periods of extreme heat. As the Australian population ages, planning for the health effects of extreme heat in elderly residents is critical to ensure wellness in this population group is maintained.Aims were to: 1) investigate current heat-wave planning, policies, staff knowledge and heat prevention strategies and 2) identify barriers to adaptation and successful implementation of adequate heat-wave health care in ACFs in three Australian states (NSW, Queensland and South Australia).Residential ACFs were identified across three states using Department of Health and Ageing databases, white pages and internet searching. After removal of duplicates, 1,561 facilities were invited to participate in the study. Each participating facility was asked to provide informed consent and invited to select one administrative and one clinical staff member to participate in a 15 minute Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI). Participants were asked about their knowledge of the effects of heat on the elderly and to detail current plans and policies which addressed residents’ health during heat-waves, and barriers to care during periods of extreme heat. Data was entered into a purpose-built database and analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 19.Two hundred and eighty seven (287) facilities (18%) participated in the telephone interview. The ACFs enrolled represented 20,928 Australian aged care residents.  Ninety percent of facilities had a current ACF emergency plan, although only 30% included heat-wave emergency planning. Heatwave policies were not routine in all ACFs in any state. Staff used a range of strategies to keep residents cool in extreme heat, although strategies were not consistent across all states or facilities. The issues raised in relation to clinical care in this group can be synthesised into four key messages; cooling, hydration, monitoring and emergency planning, which, at a practical level are essential to maintain the health of older people in very hot weather.&nbsp

Infrastructure interdependencies and business-level impacts: a new approach to climate risk assessment

This report examines some of the physical impacts of climate change on the infrastructure sector and the resulting cascade of consequences for the broader economy.The report summarises findings from a workshop conducted in December 2012 by The Climate Institute, Manidis Roberts (a part of the RPS Group) and KPMG, which piloted a process for analysing the climate-related risks associated with interdependent infrastructure systems of a major city. The workshop was informed by a range of sources: a desktop review of academic, business and government documents; analysis from experts in the fields of risk, resilience, sustainability and infrastructure planning; analysis of historical events; interdependency mapping and quantitative modelling.This workshop report follows The Climate Institute’s recently published report Coming Ready or Not: Managing climate risks to Australian infrastructure, which synthesised research on the physical impacts and flow-on consequences of climate change and  analysed preparations for climate change impacts in Australia amongst owners and operators of major infrastructure assets

The Impact of Heatwaves on Community Morbidity and Healthcare Usage: A Retrospective Observational Study Using Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance.

We investigated the impact of a moderate heatwave on a range of presenting morbidities in England. Asthma, difficulty breathing, cerebrovascular accident, and cardiovascular symptoms were analysed using general practitioner in hours (GPIH), out of hours (GPOOH) and emergency department (ED) syndromic surveillance systems. Data were stratified by age group and compared between a heatwave year (2013) and non-heatwave years (2012, 2014). Incidence rate ratios were calculated to estimate the differential impact of heatwave compared to non-heatwave summers: there were no apparent differences for the morbidities tested between the 2013 heatwave and non-heatwave years. A subset of GPIH data were used to study individuals at higher risk from heatwaves based on their pre-existing disease. Higher risk patients were not more likely to present at GPs or ED than other individuals. Comparing GPIH consultations and ED attendances for myocardial infarction/ischaemia (MI), there was evidence of a fall in the presentation of MI during the heatwave, which was particularly noted in the 65-74 years age group (and over 75 years in ED attendances). These results indicate the difficulty in identifying individuals at risk from non-fatal health effects of heatwaves and hot weather

Heat risk assessment for the Brussels capital region under different urban planning and greenhouse gas emission scenarios

Urban residents are exposed to higher levels of heat stress in comparison to the rural population. As this phenomenon could be enhanced by both global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and urban expansion, urban planners and policymakers should integrate both in their assessment. One way to consider these two concepts is by using urban climate models at a high resolution. In this study, the influence of urban expansion and GHG emission scenarios is evaluated at 100 m spatial resolution for the city of Brussels (Belgium) in the near (2031-2050) and far (2081-2100) future. Two possible urban planning scenarios (translated into local climate zones, LCZs) in combination with two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) have been implemented in the urban climate model UrbClim. The projections show that the influence of GHG emissions trumps urban planning measures in each period. In the near future, no large differences are seen between the RCP scenarios; in the far future, both heat stress and risk values are twice as large for RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5. Depending on the GHG scenario and the LCZ type, heat stress is projected to increase by a factor of 10 by 2090 compared to the present-day climate and urban planning conditions. The imprint of vulnerability and exposure is clearly visible in the heat risk assessment, leading to very high levels of heat risk, most notably for the North Western part of the Brussels Capital Region. The results demonstrate the need for mitigation and adaptation plans at different policy levels that strive for lower GHG emissions and the development of sustainable urban areas safeguarding livability in cities

On the return period of the 2003 heat wave

Extremal events are difficult to model since it is difficult to characterize formally those events. The 2003 heat wave in Europe was not characterized by very high temperatures, but mainly the fact that night temperature were no cool enough for a long period of time. Hence, simulation of several models (either with heavy tailed noise or long range dependence) yield different estimations for the return period of that extremal event.Heat wave, long range dependence, return period, heavy tails, GARMA processes, SARIMA processes

Culture and disaster risk management - citizens’ reactions and opinions during Citizen Summit in Bucharest, Romania

The analyses and results in this document are based on data collected during the first CARISMAND Citizen Summit held in Bucharest, Romania, on July 9th 2016. The Citizen Summit was designed as a 1-day event combining public information with feedback-gathering through different methods of data collection: (1) 30 questions with pre-defined answer options posed to the audience and collected via an audience response system; and (2) small moderated group discussions of approximately 1.5 hours duration which followed a detailed set of questions and discussion guidelines, including (3) a short association exercise. All questions and discussions aimed to explore citizens’ attitudes, feelings and perceptions towards disaster risks as well as the identification of cultural factors in disaster preparation, response and recovery. Their definition and design was based on a literature review, preliminary research results from other work packages, and taking up specific topics identified in the 1st CARISMAND Stakeholder Assembly. For a detailed overview of all questions asked and topics discussed please see Appendix A. Overall, 110 citizens participated in the Bucharest event. The total sample shows a relatively even gender and age distribution, which is unsurprising given the target quotas which were requested from the recruiting local market research agency. The comparatively low number of senior citizens aged 65 and above was expected and reflects mobility issues. Participants were asked about three key aspects of experience of disasters and disaster risk perception that could potentially have an impact on how other questions were answered. More than nine out of ten respondents indicated that they, or a close friend or family member, have experienced a disaster, 68% felt that they are living in an area that is specifically prone to disasters, and 78% answered that they know other people in the area where they live who they think are particularly vulnerable or exposed to disasters. Slight gender differences were found to be not statistically significant (p>=.05). This report presents the results of the first CARISMAND Citizen Summit and is structured in six main sections: After this introduction, the second section will provide an overview of the different methods applied. The third section, based on the quantitative data collected via the audience response system, presents the results from questions on general disaster risk perceptions, disaster preparedness, and behaviours in disaster situations, the latter with a particular focus on the use of social media. The fourth section, based on the qualitative data collected in the discussion groups, will analyse the participants’ risk perceptions and behaviours related to (a) different “features” of disasters, in particular related to slow/fast onset, short/long-term effects and the “visibility” of disasters, and (b) different disaster phases. Furthermore, this section will report on the different cultural aspects and cultural groups identified by the participants, the specific needs of such groups, and perceived community strengths and weaknesses in case of a disaster. Additionally, it will provide insight into participants’ views on measures that may help to improve disaster preparedness and response. The fifth section focuses on risk perception in relation to causes of disasters, in particular the blurred distinction between natural and man-made disasters. The final section compared and contrasts the results from sections 2, 3 and 4, draws some tentative conclusions, and identifies topics and issues that should feed into the next round of events in 2017, i.e. the 2nd Stakeholder Assembly as well as the 3rd and 4th Citizen Summits.The project was co-funded by the European Commission within the Horizon2020 Programme (2014-2020).peer-reviewe