Future orientation and fertility

Using digital traces to investigate demographic behaviours, I leverage in this paper aggregated web search data to develop a Future Orientation Index for 200 countries and territories across the world. This index is expressed as the ratio of Google search volumes for ‘next year’ (e.g., 2021) to search volumes for ‘current year’ (e.g., 2020), adjusted for country-level internet penetration rates. I show that countries with lower levels of future orientation also have higher levels of fertility. Fertility rates decrease quickly as future orientation levels increase; but at the highest levels of future orientation, this correlation flattens out. Theoretically, I reconstruct the role that varying degrees of future orientation might play in fertility decisions by incorporating advances in behavioural economics into a traditional quantity-quality framework a la Becker

Central Florida Future, Orientation 2000

https://stars.library.ucf.edu/centralfloridafuture/2520/thumbnail.jp

Micro-Level Determinants of Lecture Attendance and Additional Study-Hours

This paper uses novel measures of individual differences that produce new insights about student inputs into the (higher) education production function. The inputs examined are lecture attendance and additional study-hours. The data were collected through a web-survey that the authors designed. The analysis includes the following measures: willingness to take risks, consideration of future consequences and non-cognitive ability traits. Besides age, gender and year of study, the main determinants of lecture attendance and additional study-hours are attitude to risk, future-orientation and conscientiousness. In addition, future-orientation, and in particular conscientiousness, determine lecture attendance to a greater extent than they determine additional study. Finally, we show that family income and financial transfers (from both parents and the state) do not determine any educational input. This study suggests that non-cognitive abilities may be more important than financial constraints in the determination of inputs related to educational production functions.higher education, education inputs, lecture attendance, hours of study, future-orientation, attitude to risk, non-cognitive ability, conscientiousness

Micro-Level Determinants of Lecture Attendance and Additional Study-Hours

This paper uses novel measures of individual differences that produce new insights about student inputs into the (higher) education production function. The inputs examined are lecture attendance and additional study-hours. The data were collected through a web-survey that the authors designed. The analysis includes novel measures of individual differences including willingness to take risks, consideration of future consequences and non-cognitive ability traits. Besides age, gender and year of study, the main determinants of lecture attendance and additional study-hours are attitude to risk, future-orientation and conscientiousness. In addition, future-orientation, and in particular conscientiousness, determine lecture attendance to a greater extent than they determine additional study. Finally, we show that family income and financial transfers (from both parents and the state) do not determine any educational input. This study suggests that non-cognitive abilities may be more important than financial constraints in the determination of inputs related to educational production functions.higher education, education inputs, lecture attendance, hours of study, future-orientation, attitude to risk, non-cognitive ability, conscientiousness

Do environmental concern and future orientation predict metered household electricity use?

Do individuals' environmental attitudes and future orientation predict actual energy consumption? Little is known about the answer to this fundamental question because previous research has relied on self-reported behaviour, which might be prone to social desirability. Therefore, the present study combines survey data with metered data on actual electricity use. Environmental concern is measured by attitudinal items, future orientation by a short version of the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale as well as a behaviour-based subjective discount rate. Results did not reveal any direct correlations between discount rates and electricity use but mediation analyses suggested small indirect effects. Environmental concern and CFC, however, was positively and considerably related to electricity use. Furthermore, there was a large gender difference, with women using about 23% less electricity than men. This study provides evidence that households' environmental attitudes and future orientation are correlated with actual energy consumption levels, and thus lends support to corresponding educational programmes

"Expectation"

Previously in Futures, I discussed a word that we use to form an abstract futures concept: “millennium” [1]. In its most common current usage, “millennium” is an example of a word that provides, and one might even say controls, a future orientation for us. In the present essay, I am taking a different approach to the role of the word that I will be discussing. This word is not an example of a future-orientation; rather it is more of an example of language about future-orientation. The word is “expectation”. To make this distinction clearer, it may help to borrow some of the terminological distinctions made by the American logician, C.S. Peirce. First of all, for Peirce, and indeed for my present purposes, signs include words. More specifically, in a paper dated 1867, May 14th, and published in the Proceedings of the American Academy of Arts and Science (Boston), VII (1868) [2] Peirce divided signs into three categories based upon their relationship to their object—Icons, Indices, and Symbols. (Peirce himself used the convention of capitalising the words.) He defined “Icon” as a sign determined by its object “by virtue of its own internal nature”. In comparison, he defined “Index” as a sign determined by its object “by virtue of being in real relation to it”, such as when smoke is a sign of fire. A Symbol, according to Peirce, is a sign determined by its object “only in the sense that it will be so interpreted”. A Symbol thus depends upon conventions or habits

An Analysis Of The Consequences Of Running Away Among Black And Hispanic Female Juvenile Offenders With An Emphasis On Future Orientation

Girls are prominent in the etiology of runaways due to having higher runaway rates than boys. While empirical studies of runaways have extensively focused on the causes of girls’ runaways, few studies shed light on the runaway consequences. Those studies that analyzed the consequences of a girl’s runaway have majorly stressed the delinquent outcomes. However, studies of runaway consequences have minimally paid attention to youth future orientation since future orientation is a vital factor in youth offending behavior. Furthermore, contextual background, such as runaway, influences the same future orientation. Therefore, this research explored the understudied relationship between the girl’s runaway consequences, future orientation, and offending behavior among female Black and Hispanic offenders. This quantitative research utilized a secondary dataset, Research on Pathways to Desistance [Maricopa County, AZ and Philadelphia County, PA]: Subject Measures, 2000-2010 from the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR). This research examined three research questions. The first research question measured whether runaway girls significantly differed in their future orientation, exposure to violence, procedural justice, and certainty of sanctions perceptions than non-runaway girls. The second research question attempted to understand if there are any significant differences between runaway Black and Hispanic girls in their future orientation, exposure to violence, procedural justice, and certainty of sanctions perceptions. The third research question examined the interaction between exposure to violence, procedural justice, certainty of sanctions perceptions, and future orientation’s influence on runaway girls’ offending behavior. This research employed one-way ANOVA and Multiple Regression analysis to analyze the research questions. The research findings from one-way ANOVA identified no significant differences between runaway and non-runaway girls and Black and Hispanic girls in their future orientation, exposure to violence, procedural justice, and certainty of sanctions perceptions. The results from Multiple Regression analysis found a statistically significant influence of the interaction of exposure to violence and future orientation, and procedural justice and future orientation on runaway girls’ offending behavior. Keywords: runaway girls, future orientation, exposure to violence, procedural justice views, certainty of sanctions perceptions, self-reported offending behavio

Mechanisms through which Supportive Adult Relationships and Future Orientation Contribute to Positive Outcomes in Low-Income African-American Adolescents.

Adolescents raised in impoverished environments are at substantial risk of making poor life decisions because they are often exposed to high levels of neighborhood violence and substance use, and attend under-resourced schools. Despite facing these risks, many youth experience adaptive developmental outcomes in the face of these challenges. Resilience literature identifies the presence of a supportive adult relationship and a positive future orientation (i.e., an optimistic conceptualization of the future) as factors related to decreases in negative outcomes and increases in positive outcomes among youth exposed to conditions of risk This study examined both mediation and moderation as possible mechanisms explaining the interplay of future orientation and supportive adult relationships as contributors to resilient outcomes in African-American youth raised in areas of risk. Specifically, this study assessed (1) whether youth develop a positive future orientation through their contact with supportive adults which results in decreased engagement in problem behaviors and increased grades (i.e., a mediated effect), and (2) whether the associations of supportive adult relationships with problem behavior and academic achievement differ as a function of variation in future orientation (i.e., a moderated effect). Data from an evaluation conducted in a low-income, high risk area in Atlanta were used to tests these mechanisms. This study found that these processes are complex and depend on the outcome variable being assessed. Specifically, future orientation mediated the association between supportive adult relationships and problem behaviors, but moderated the association between supportive adult relationships and academic achievement. In the mediation model, supportive adult relationships were associated with decreases in problem behaviors through its association with future orientation. In the moderation model, among youth with a low future orientation, supportive adult relationships were associated with increases in school grades. This study also found that future orientation interacted with gender associations, such that among youth with high future orientation, girls had higher school grades and among youth with low future orientation, girls engaged in more problem behaviors. This study has implications for future research on future orientation, youth development prevention and intervention programming, and policy around low-income youth

Pathways to Delinquency and Substance Use among African American Youth: Does Future Orientation Mediate the Effects of Peer Norms and Parental Monitoring?

The following study assessed whether future orientation mediated the effects of peer norms and parental monitoring on delinquency and substance use among 549 African American adolescents. Structural equation modeling computed direct and indirect (meditational) relationships between parental monitoring and peer norms through future orientation. Parental monitoring significantly correlated with lower delinquency through future orientation (B = −.05, standard deviation =.01, p \u3c.01). Future orientation mediated more than quarter (27.70%) of the total effect of parental monitoring on delinquency. Overall findings underscore the importance of strengthening resilience factors for African American youth, especially those who live in low-income communities