Towards a global research program on food systems

Future Earth is interested to establish a research area on food systems. This one day workshop, hosted by the CCAFS Coordinating Unit at the University of Copenhagen in collaboration with Future Earth, was intended to contribute to that aim. Two objectives were agreed for the meeting, namely (i) to identify some of the major research themes that are currently under-researched and (ii) to explore modalities for achieving greater synergy amongst current global research programmes on Food Systems. The facilitated workshop was attended by 44 invited participants who represented a wide range of research disciplines, institutions, nationalities and geographic spread and was structured around plenary presentations and working group discussion and feedback

Uncertainty Quantification of Future Design Rainfall Depths in Korea

One of the most common ways to investigate changes in future rainfall extremes is to use future rainfall data simulated by climate models with climate change scenarios. However, the projected future design rainfall intensity varies greatly depending on which climate model is applied. In this study, future rainfall Intensity???Duration???Frequency (IDF) curves are projected using various combinations of climate models. Future Ensemble Average (FEA) is calculated using a total of 16 design rainfall intensity ensembles, and uncertainty of FEA is quantified using the coefficient of variation of ensembles. The FEA and its uncertainty vary widely depending on how the climate model combination is constructed, and the uncertainty of the FEA depends heavily on the inclusion of specific climate model combinations at each site. In other words, we found that unconditionally using many ensemble members did not help to reduce the uncertainty of future IDF curves. Finally, a method for constructing ensemble members that reduces the uncertainty of future IDF curves is proposed, which will contribute to minimizing confusion among policy makers in developing climate change adaptation policies

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. I: Mean response and interannual variability

The impact of doubled CO2 concentration on the Asian summer monsoon is studied using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Both the mean seasonal precipitation and interannual monsoon variability are found to increase in the future climate scenario presented. Systematic biases in current climate simulations of the coupled system prevent accurate representation of the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection, of prime importance for seasonal prediction and for determining monsoon interannual variability. By applying seasonally varying heat flux adjustments to the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean surface in the future climate simulation, some assessment can be made of the impact of systematic model biases on future climate predictions. In simulations where the flux adjustments are implemented, the response to climate change is magnified, with the suggestion that systematic biases may be masking the true impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing. The teleconnection between ENSO and the Asian summer monsoon remains robust in the future climate, although the Indo-Pacific takes on more of a biennial character for long periods of the flux-adjusted simulation. Assessing the teleconnection across interdecadal timescales shows wide variations in its amplitude, despite the absence of external forcing. This suggests that recent changes in the observed record cannot be distinguished from internal variations and as such are not necessarily related to climate change

Climate in the balance

This essay explores how our climate system works, how humans are changing the climate system, and how we might face the challenges of reducing our negative impact on the climate system in the future

An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change.

Assessments of the potential human health impacts of climate change are needed to inform the development of adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to lessen projected adverse impacts. We developed methods for country-level assessments to help policy makers make evidence-based decisions to increase resilience to current and future climates, and to provide information for national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The steps in an assessment should include the following: a) determine the scope of the assessment; b) describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; c) identify and describe current strategies, policies, and measures designed to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; d) review the health implications of the potential impacts of climate variability and change in other sectors; e) estimate the future potential health impacts using scenarios of future changes in climate, socioeconomic, and other factors; f) synthesize the results; and g) identify additional adaptation policies and measures to reduce potential negative health impacts. Key issues for ensuring that an assessment is informative, timely, and useful include stakeholder involvement, an adequate management structure, and a communication strategy

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Urban Transport Infrastructure in the UK

Urban areas face many risks from future climate change and their infrastructure will be placed under more pressure due to changes in climate extremes. Using the Tyndall Centre Urban Integrated Assessment Framework, this paper describes a methodology used to assess the impacts of future climate extremes on transport infrastructure in London. Utilising high-resolution projections for future climate in the UK, alongside stochastic weather generators for downscaling, urban temperature and flooding models are used to provide information on the likelihood of future extremes. These are then coupled with spatial network models of urban transport infrastructure and, using thresholds to define the point at which systems cease to function normally, disruption to the networks can be simulated. Results are shown for both extreme heat and urban surface water flooding events and the impacts on the travelling population, in terms of both disruption time and monetary cost

The diurnal nature of future extreme precipitation intensification

Short‐duration, high‐impact precipitation events in the extratropics are invariably convective in nature, typically occur during the summer, and are projected to intensify under climate change. The occurrence of convective precipitation is strongly regulated by the diurnal convective cycle, peaking in the late afternoon. Here we perform very high resolution (convection‐permitting) regional climate model simulations to study the scaling of extreme precipitation under climate change across the diurnal cycle. We show that the future intensification of extreme precipitation has a strong diurnal signal and that intraday scaling far in excess of overall scaling, and indeed thermodynamic expectations, is possible. We additionally show that, under a strong climate change scenario, the probability maximum for the occurrence of heavy to extreme precipitation may shift from late afternoon to the overnight/morning period. We further identify the thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms which modify future extreme environments, explaining both the future scaling's diurnal signal and departure from thermodynamic expectations

An Overview of Campus Climate: Dimensions of Diversity in Higher Education

Higher education scholars have increasingly studied campus climate, a term used to denote the experiences of diverse students, faculty, and staff. This article inventories the literature on the topic, including definitions of campus climate, approaches to assessing climate, and future directions for climate inquiry.Educatio