Foreign direct investment and host country regional export performance : evidence from Poland

Poland;industry;direct investment;export promotion;export volume;foreign investment;statistical analysis

Local Export spillovers in France

This paper investigates the presence of local export spillovers on both the extensive (the decision to start exporting) and the intensive (the export volume) margins of trade, using data on French individual export flows, at the product-level and by destination country, between 1998 and 2003. We investigate whether the individual decision to start exporting and exported volume are influenced by the presence of nearby product and/or destination specific exporters, using a gravity-type equation estimated at the firm-level. Spillovers are considered at a fine geographical level corresponding to employment areas (348 in France). We control for the new economic geography-type selection of firms into agglomerated areas, and for the local price effects of firms agglomeration.Firm-level export data; Destination specific spillovers; Agglomeration

Forecasting Hungarian Export Volume

The paper summarizes the research on forecasting the Hungarian export volume. We elaborated a two-step procedure. In the first step we forecasted foreign demand, then in the second step we forecasted Hungarian export using the best outcome of the first step together with real exchange rate and import series. We used several econometric techniques and tested our results statistically by two criteria. We compared the precision and stability of the different forecasts. The ARIMA forecasts were employed as a benchmark. We found that in terms of both criteria foreign demand forecasts were significantly better than those obtained with ARIMA. However, in the case of the Hungarian export volume our results were only better in terms of the stability properties. Therefore the choice between the different forecasting methods was not obvious, so a ’Consensus’ index was also computed as a weighted average of different forecasts, where the weights were negative functions of imprecision and instability.

Estimation of Export Supply Function for Citrus Fruit in Pakistan

There is strong evidence in the literature that export and economic growth have a positive relationship. In Pakistan, with an agrarian economy, earnings from primary agricultural exports are vital for the overall growth process. Fruits are the traditional export commodities, which contribute more than half of total export earnings from primary agricultural commodities. The persistent instability in world market prices for primary commodities has depressed the export earnings from these commodities over time. This poses great challenges to a country like Pakistan. The present study aims at examining changes in the volume of export of citrus fruit from Pakistan caused by such factors as changes in domestic and export prices, national product, foreign exchange rate, etc. The study uses time series data for the period 1975–2004 for citrus exports and related domestic price, export price, GDP, and foreign exchange rate, employing the co-integration and error correction techniques for analysis purposes.

A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis

This paper challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a mere change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to a production function model with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP in developing countries, (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, and (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Evidence from a simple regression analysis suggests that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence, business regulation, and labour regulation, whereas there is no statistically significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb knowledge.Export-led growth; Developing countries; Panel cointegration

Empirical Evidences from a Coffee Paradox: An Export Supply/Price Asymmetry Approach

This paper aims to determine the solidity of the notion of the "coffee paradox" using annual data from 1977 to 2007. In the confines of an export supply model, we analyze the effects of export coffee price on export volume. Price and profit equation are used to determine the effects of market power on export coffee price and measure changes in the retail and export price. We also estimate the elasticity of transmission and price asymmetry as a means of verifying the "coffee paradox." Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Instrumental Variables (IV), and simultaneous equation with Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) methods of econometric analysis are employed. Empirical results suggest that the world coffee market is characterized by "coffee paradox" due to different changes between retail and export prices of coffee, and that it is the existence of market power in importing countries that is the main contributor to the condition of price asymmetry.export supply model, coffee paradox, elasticity of transmission, price asymmetry, price equation, profit equation, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade,

Is export diversification the best way to achieve export growth and stability? A look at three African countries

Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe depend heavily on export earnings from a narrow base of agricultural commodities (coffee, cotton, sugar, tea, and tobacco). This dependence increased between 1961 - 1973 and 1974 - 1987, when international prices for those commodities were declining and unstable. Policymakers concerned with the instability and downward trend in export earnings for the three countries, tend to equate these trends with the countries'narrow export commodity base. They often propose export diversification as an expedient remedy. But the authors found that horizontal diversification would have produced lower export earnings and more instability. Policymakers introducing horizontal diversification must first consider price forecasts, comparative advantage, the economy's changing structure, and the costs of adjustment. Reactions to historical price movements can produce unexpected, undesirable results. A shift during this period from favorable to unfavorable price trends, and shifts in the covariances of deviations from price trends, complicate the design of export diversification policies, especially policies aimed at stabilizing export earnings. Generally, the most effective way to achieve growth and stability in export earnings is to increase and stabilize agricultural production and the volume of exports. The authors analysis shows that different export diversification policies can help fulfill different policy goals.Economic Theory&Research,Airports and Air Services,Achieving Shared Growth,Water Resources Assessment,Crops&Crop Management Systems

A Further Examination of the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis

This paper challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP and vice versa (short-run bidirectional causality), (ii) the long-run effect of exports on nonexport output, however, is negative on average, but (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence and business and labor market regulation. In contrast, there is no significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb new knowledge.Export-led growth, Developing countries, Panel cointegration

Decomposing Terms of Trade Fluctuations in Ethiopia

This paper proposes a technique to decompose short-run fluctuations in the terms of trade. Using Ethiopia as an example, we decompose the commodity terms of trade into various components to measure the impact of price and volume shifts as well as export diversification. We use monthly data from the past decade, including periods during the global food and financial crises. Our findings suggest that diversification out of traditional coffee exports to other export commodities successfully mitigated a terms of trade shock. Continued export diversification will be beneficial.Terms of Trade, Food Price Crisis, Financial Crisis, Ethiopia