Simple threshold rules solve explore/exploit trade‐offs in a resource accumulation search task

How, and how well, do people switch between exploration and exploitation to search for and accumulate resources? We study the decision processes underlying such exploration/exploitation trade‐offs using a novel card selection task that captures the common situation of searching among multiple resources (e.g., jobs) that can be exploited without depleting. With experience, participants learn to switch appropriately between exploration and exploitation and approach optimal performance. We model participants' behavior on this task with random, threshold, and sampling strategies, and find that a linear decreasing threshold rule best fits participants' results. Further evidence that participants use decreasing threshold‐based strategies comes from reaction time differences between exploration and exploitation; however, participants themselves report non‐decreasing thresholds. Decreasing threshold strategies that “front‐load” exploration and switch quickly to exploitation are particularly effective in resource accumulation tasks, in contrast to optimal stopping problems like the Secretary Problem requiring longer exploration

Generic Strategies for Chemical Space Exploration

Computational approaches to exploring "chemical universes", i.e., very large sets, potentially infinite sets of compounds that can be constructed by a prescribed collection of reaction mechanisms, in practice suffer from a combinatorial explosion. It quickly becomes impossible to test, for all pairs of compounds in a rapidly growing network, whether they can react with each other. More sophisticated and efficient strategies are therefore required to construct very large chemical reaction networks. Undirected labeled graphs and graph rewriting are natural models of chemical compounds and chemical reactions. Borrowing the idea of partial evaluation from functional programming, we introduce partial applications of rewrite rules. Binding substrate to rules increases the number of rules but drastically prunes the substrate sets to which it might match, resulting in dramatically reduced resource requirements. At the same time, exploration strategies can be guided, e.g. based on restrictions on the product molecules to avoid the explicit enumeration of very unlikely compounds. To this end we introduce here a generic framework for the specification of exploration strategies in graph-rewriting systems. Using key examples of complex chemical networks from sugar chemistry and the realm of metabolic networks we demonstrate the feasibility of a high-level strategy framework. The ideas presented here can not only be used for a strategy-based chemical space exploration that has close correspondence of experimental results, but are much more general. In particular, the framework can be used to emulate higher-level transformation models such as illustrated in a small puzzle game

Self-adaptive exploration in evolutionary search

We address a primary question of computational as well as biological research on evolution: How can an exploration strategy adapt in such a way as to exploit the information gained about the problem at hand? We first introduce an integrated formalism of evolutionary search which provides a unified view on different specific approaches. On this basis we discuss the implications of indirect modeling (via a ``genotype-phenotype mapping'') on the exploration strategy. Notions such as modularity, pleiotropy and functional phenotypic complex are discussed as implications. Then, rigorously reflecting the notion of self-adaptability, we introduce a new definition that captures self-adaptability of exploration: different genotypes that map to the same phenotype may represent (also topologically) different exploration strategies; self-adaptability requires a variation of exploration strategies along such a ``neutral space''. By this definition, the concept of neutrality becomes a central concern of this paper. Finally, we present examples of these concepts: For a specific grammar-type encoding, we observe a large variability of exploration strategies for a fixed phenotype, and a self-adaptive drift towards short representations with highly structured exploration strategy that matches the ``problem's structure''.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figure

Keynote address

Approved and projected probe mission strategies for the outer planet exploration programs are briefly outlined

Lunar Resource Assessment: Strategies for Surface Exploration

Use of the indigenous resources of space to support long-term human presence is an essential element of the settlement of other planetary bodies. We are in a very early stage of understanding exactly how and under what circumstances space resources will become important. The materials and processes to recover them that we now think are critical may not ultimately be the raison d'etre for a resource utilization program. However, the need for strategic thinking proceeds in parallel with efforts to implement such plans and it is not too soon to begin thinking how we could and should use the abundant resources of materials and energy available from the Moon. The following commodities from the Moon are discussed: (1) bulk regolith, for shielding and construction on the lunar surface (ultimately for export to human-tended stations in Earth-Moon space), and (2) oxygen and hydrogen, for propellant and life support

Decision Making for Rapid Information Acquisition in the Reconnaissance of Random Fields

Research into several aspects of robot-enabled reconnaissance of random fields is reported. The work has two major components: the underlying theory of information acquisition in the exploration of unknown fields and the results of experiments on how humans use sensor-equipped robots to perform a simulated reconnaissance exercise. The theoretical framework reported herein extends work on robotic exploration that has been reported by ourselves and others. Several new figures of merit for evaluating exploration strategies are proposed and compared. Using concepts from differential topology and information theory, we develop the theoretical foundation of search strategies aimed at rapid discovery of topological features (locations of critical points and critical level sets) of a priori unknown differentiable random fields. The theory enables study of efficient reconnaissance strategies in which the tradeoff between speed and accuracy can be understood. The proposed approach to rapid discovery of topological features has led in a natural way to to the creation of parsimonious reconnaissance routines that do not rely on any prior knowledge of the environment. The design of topology-guided search protocols uses a mathematical framework that quantifies the relationship between what is discovered and what remains to be discovered. The quantification rests on an information theory inspired model whose properties allow us to treat search as a problem in optimal information acquisition. A central theme in this approach is that "conservative" and "aggressive" search strategies can be precisely defined, and search decisions regarding "exploration" vs. "exploitation" choices are informed by the rate at which the information metric is changing.Comment: 34 pages, 20 figure