Does innovation stimulate employment? A firm-level analysis using comparable micro data on four European countries

This paper studies the impact of process and product innovations introduced by firms on their employment growth. A model that relates employment growth to process innovations and to the growth of sales due to innovative and unchanged products is derived and estimated using a unique source of comparable firm-level data from France, Germany, Spain and the UK. Results for manufacturing show that, although process innovation tends to displace employment, compensation effects are prevalent, and product innovation is associated with employment growth. In the service sector there is less evidence of displacement effects, and growth in sales of new products accounts for a non-negligible proportion of employment growth. Overall the results are similar across countries, with some interesting exceptions

Short- and long- run linkages between employment growth, inflation and output growth: Evidence from a large panel

Copyright @ 2011 Brunel UniversityThis study examines the short- and long-run linkages between employment growth, inflation and output growth applying panel cointegration and causality tests to data for 119 countries over the period 1970-2010. We find evidence of positive Granger causality running from output growth to employment growth in the short run. Employment growth Granger causes output growth with a negative sign in the long run. Inflation Granger causes employment and output growth positively in the short run and negatively in the long run

The Worsening Shortage of College-Graduate Workers

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections of occupational employment growth have consistently underpredicted the growth of skilled occupations. BLS currently projects that professional, technical, and managerial jobs will account for 44.5% of employment growth between 1988 and 2000, while we project they will account for 70% of employment growth. Between March 1988 and March 1991 these occupations, in fact, accounted for 87% of employment growth. The BLS\u27s projections of the supply/demand balance for college graduates have also been off the mark-predicting a surplus for the 1980s when, in fact, a shortage developed, and relative wage ratios for college graduates rose to all-time highs. We project that the supply of college educated workers will grow more slowly during the 1990s and that there will be a continuing escalation of wage premiums for college graduates

Asset specificity and behavioral uncertainty as moderators of the sales growth: Employment growth relationship in emerging ventures

Sales growth and employment growth are the two most widely used growth indicators for new ventures; yet, sales growth and employment growth are not interchangeable measures of new venture growth. Rather, they are related, but somewhat independent constructs that respond differently to a variety of criteria. Most of the literature treats this as a methodological technicality. However, sales growth with or without accompanying employment growth has very different implications for managers and policy makers. A better understanding of what drives these different growth metrics has the potential to lead to better decision making. To improve that understanding we apply transaction cost economics reasoning to predict when sales growth will be or will not be accompanied by employment growth. Our results indicate that our predictions are borne out consistently in resource-constrained contexts but not in resource-munificent contexts.</p

Is a Skills Shortage Coming? A Review of BLS Occupational Projections to 2005

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of occupational employment growth have consistently underpredicted the growth of skilled occupations. BLS currently projects that professional, technical and managerial jobs will account for 40.9 percent of employment growth between 1990 and 2005. Forecasting regressions predict, to the contrary, that these occupations will account for 53 to 68 percent of employment growth through the year 2005. Between 1986 and 1991 these occupations, in fact, accounted for 64 percent of employment growth. The BLS\u27s projections of the supply/demand balance for college graduates have also been off the mark--predicting a surplus for the 1980s when in fact a shortage developed and relative wage ratios for college graduates rose to all time highs. I project a slowdown in the growth of college educated workers during the 1990s and a continuing escalation of wage premiums for college graduates

Employment growth, inflation and output growth: Was phillips right? Evidence from a dynamic panel

Copyright @ 2011 Brunel UniversityIn this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in Phillips’ tradition. For this purpose we apply FMOLS, DOLS, PMGE, MGE, DFE, and VECM methods to a nonstationary heterogeneous dynamic panel including annual data for 119 countries over the period 1970-2010, and also carry out multivariate Granger causality tests. The empirical results strongly support the existence of a single cointegrating relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth with bidirectional causality between employment growth and inflation as well as output growth, giving support to Phillips’ Golden Triangle theory

Regional employment growth and the business cycle

Employment growth is highly correlated across regions. The author uses joint movements in regional employment growth to define and estimate a common factor, analogues to the business cycle. Regions differ substantially in the relative importance of cyclical shocks and idiosyncratic shocks in explaining the steady state variance in regional employment growth. For example, cyclical shocks account for almost 90 percent of the steady state variance in employment growth in the East South Central region and about 40 percent in the West South Central Region.Employment (Economic theory) ; Regional economics ; Business cycles

What we can and what we can't say about employment growth in specialised cities

There is an ongoing debate on whether certain sector structures enhance regional employment growth. Often, regional policies promote clusters and, hence, regional specialisation. It is commonly believed that clusters boost regional economic performance. However, in the present manuscript a simple model is introduced which suggests the reverse is true regarding employment growth. It is argued that specialised regions are prone to be affected stronger by sector-specific demand shocks than diversified ones and, therefore, show higher variances in employment growth rates. A test on the equality of variances in employment growth rates across two groups of specialised and diversified cities is conducted. It shows that, in Germany, variances are higher in the group of specialised cities. Thus, regional specialisation is more insecure than diversification with regard to stable employment growth rates. --

The causal effect of restrictive bank lending on employment growth: A matching approach

Does restrictive bank lending cause lower employment growth at the firm-level or does it reflect firm characteristics that drive the deterioration of employment figures? Applying propensity score matching, we estimate the treatment effect of restrictive bank lending on employment growth. Combining balance sheet information and survey data on a firm's current and expected future business situation, we rule out the impact of firm heterogeneity. We find that credit constraints have a significant negative effect on employment growth. Restricted firms also apply for short-time work more often, but this effect is small and not significant in all estimations