Simulation of an 1857-like Mw 7.9 San Andreas Fault Earthquake and the Response of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings in Southern California – A Prototype Study

In 1857, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred on the San Andreas fault, starting at Parkfield and rupturing in a southeasterly direction for more than 360 km. Such a unilateral rupture produces significant directivity toward the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins. The strong shaking in the basins due to this earthquake would have had significant long-period content (2-8 s), and the objective of this study is to quantify the impact of such an earthquake on two 18-story steel moment frame building models, hypothetically located at 636 sites on a 3.5 km grid in southern California. End-to-end simulations include modeling the source and rupture of a fault at one end, numerically propagating the seismic waves through the earth structure, simulating the damage to engineered structures and estimating the economic impact at the other end using high-performance computing. In this prototype study, we use an inferred finite source model of the magnitude 7.9, 2002 Denali fault earthquake in Alaska, and map it onto the San Andreas fault with the rupture originating at Parkfield and propagating southward over a distance of 290 km. Using the spectral element seismic wave propagation code, SPECFEM3D, we simulate an 1857-like earthquake on the San Andreas fault and compute ground motions at the 636 analysis sites. Using the nonlinear structural analysis program, FRAME3D, we subsequently analyze 3-D structural models of an existing tall steel building designed using the 1982 Uniform Building Code (UBC), as well as one designed according to the 1997 UBC, subjected to the computed ground motion at each of these sites. We summarize the performance of these structural models on contour maps of peak interstory drift. We then perform an economic loss analysis for the two buildings at each site, using the Matlab Damage and Loss Analysis (MDLA) toolbox developed to implement the PEER loss-estimation methodology. The toolbox includes damage prediction and repair cost estimation for structural and non-structural components and allows for the computation of the mean and variance of building repair costs conditional on engineering demand parameters (i.e. inter-story drift ratios and peak floor accelerations). Here, we modify it to treat steel-frame high-rises, including aspects such as mechanical, electrical and plumbing systems, traction elevators, and the possibility of irreparable structural damage. We then generate contour plots of conditional mean losses for the San Fernando and the Los Angeles basins for the pre-Northridge and modern code-designed buildings, allowing for comparison of the economic effects of the updated code for the scenario event. In principle, by simulating multiple seismic events, consistent with the probabilistic seismic hazard for a building site, the same basic approach could be used to quantify the uncertain losses from future earthquakes

The Anti-de Sitter proof of Thurston's earthquake theorem

Thurston's earthquake theorem asserts that every orientation-preserving homeomorphism of the circle admits an extension to the hyperbolic plane which is a (left or right) earthquake. The purpose of these notes is to provide a proof of Thurston's earthquake theorem, using the bi-invariant geometry of the Lie group $\mathrm{PSL}(2,\mathbb R)$, which is also called Anti-de Sitter three-space. The involved techniques are elementary, and no background knowledge is assumed apart from some two-dimensional hyperbolic geometry.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures. This article will appear as a chapter in the book: In the tradition of Thurston, III (ed. K. Ohshika and A. Papadopoulos), Springer Verlag, 202

Assessment of Seismic Risk in Istanbul

The 1999 earthquakes occurred in Turkey caused destructions in every field and level in nation wide with the high number of deaths and injuries, the remarkable rates of collapsed and heavily damaged buildings and the interruption of business activities in long-term. In the last 5 year-period, various scientific researches focusing on seismic issues have investigated the relationships among seismicity, site conditions and vulnerability. Moreover, with the co-operations of central and local governments, universities and international agencies, many comprehensive projects have been carried out, such as “A Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Basic Plan for Istanbul” by Istanbul Greater Municipality - Japan International Cooperation Agency. Despite 1999 earthquakes had slight effects on Istanbul, the probability of a great earthquake (estimated to occur up to 30 years), has accelerated the attempts on risk evaluation, development of mitigation strategies, readjustment of disaster management system and so on. The primary studies on this field are focused on understanding seismicity and site conditions at large scale so that the earthquake maps produced show risky zones related to geological indicators. Aftermath of many great disasters, it has been observed that land-use decisions, demographic and economic pattern are the key components which increase or decrease the vulnerability level of settlements. In this context, the aim of this paper is to evaluate vulnerability components affecting risk levels and to explore risky zones of Istanbul. In this paper, urban and seismic indicators (i.e. site conditions, demography, land use, economy) have been aggregated and factor analysis has been used in order to reveal principal components of earthquake risk in Istanbul. According to these main factors, using cluster analysis, the critical zones of Istanbul have been indicated on urban pattern.

NON-PARAMETRIC STATISTICAL APPROACH TO CORRECT SATELLITE RAINFALL DATA IN NEAR-REAL-TIME FOR RAIN BASED FLOOD NOWCASTING

Floods resulting from intense rainfall are one of the most disastrous hazards in many regions of the world since they contribute greatly to personal injury and to property damage mainly as a result of their ability to strike with little warning. The possibility to give an alert about a flooding situation at least a few hours before helps greatly to reduce the damage. Therefore, scores of flood forecasting systems have been developed during the past few years mainly at country level and regional level. Flood forecasting systems based only on traditional methods such as return period of flooding situations or extreme rainfall events have failed on most occasions to forecast flooding situations accurately because of changes on territory in recent years by extensive infrastructure development, increased frequency of extreme rainfall events over recent decades, etc. Nowadays, flood nowcasting systems or early warning systems which run on real- time precipitation data are becoming more popular as they give reliable forecasts compared to traditional flood forecasting systems. However, these kinds of systems are often limited to developed countries as they need well distributed gauging station networks or sophisticated surface-based radar systems to collect real-time precipitation data. In most of the developing countries and in some developed countries also, precipitation data from available sparse gauging stations are inadequate for developing representative aerial samples needed by such systems. As satellites are able to provide a global coverage with a continuous temporal availability, currently the possibility of using satellite-based rainfall estimates in flood nowcasting systems is being highly investigated. To contribute to the world's requirement for flood early warning systems, ITHACA developed a global scale flood nowcasting system that runs on near-real-time satellite rainfall estimates. The system was developed in cooperation with United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), to support the preparedness phase of the WFP like humanitarian assistance agencies, mainly in less developed countries. The concept behind this early warning system is identifying critical rainfall events for each hydrological basin on the earth with past rainfall data and using them to identify floodable rainfall events with real time rainfall data. The individuation of critical rainfall events was done with a hydrological analysis using 3B42 rainfall data which is the most accurate product of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) dataset. These critical events have been stored in a database and when a rainfall event is found in real-time which is similar or exceeds the event in the database an alert is issued for the basin area. The most accurate product of TMPA (3B42) is derived by applying bias adjustments to real time rainfall estimates using rain gauge data, thus it is available for end-users 10-15 days after each calendar month. The real time product of TMPA (3B42RT) is released approximately 9 hours after real-time and lacks of such kind of bias adjustments using rain gauge data as rain gauge data are not available in real time. Therefore, to have reliable alerts it is very important to reduce the uncertainty of 3B42RT product before using it in the early warning system. For this purpose, a statistical approach was proposed to make near real- time bias adjustments for the near real time product of TMPA (3B42RT). In this approach the relationship between the bias adjusted rainfall data product (3B42) and the real-time rainfall data product (3B42RT) was analyzed on the basis of drainage basins for the period from January 2003 to December 2007, and correction factors were developed for each basin worldwide to perform near real-time bias adjusted product estimation from the real-time rainfall data product (3B42RT). The accuracy of the product was analyzed by comparing with gauge rainfall data from Bangladesh and it was found that the uncertainty of the product is less even than the most accurate product of TMPA dataset (3B42

Worldwide Advances in Seismic Zonation

Seismic zonation is the process that integrates the hazard, policy, and built environments to produce maps that divide a geographic region into smaller areas or zones which can be used by community decision makers to answer the question, Where is the best location to locate and build a specific structure. Seismic zonation maps have been produced by almost every country in the world with the most rapid advances occurring after 1968

The conservation of modern architectural heritage buildings in Turkey: İstanbul Hilton and İstanbul Çınar Hotel as a case study

This article contributes to the conservation of modern architectural heritage buildings by emphasizing the retrofitting of their construction systems. Modern architectural heritage buildings in Turkey are crucial in terms of transferring not only the cultural identity of the nations to further generations but also architectural sustainability of its distinguished period. By time, where these buildings can have constructional problems with its original structural systems, proposing a new system related with new earthquake regulations is inevitable in order to conserve them. Because most of the buildings are under threat of being demolished. The purpose of the research is to evaluate existing modern architectural heritage buildings in terms of its existing structural system and to develop a constructional model for renewal of them. As a case study, two hotel examples in İstanbul as a modern architectural heritage is selected, one is Hilton Hotel and the other is Çınar Hotel respectively. Then, the architectural plans and sections of the buildings as a data has been collected through literature survey by content analysis. At the end, the model proposal has been developed for each hotel buildings according to existing structural systems. The proposed models can be applied to sustain the life of the hotel buildings with a retrofitted structural system. So, the paper tries to conserve/protect the modern architectural heritage buildings by retrofitting its construction via presenting a remarkable study of two hotel buildings. © 2022 THE AUTHOR