1 research outputs found
Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience
Under certain conditions, volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes may pose
significant hazards to people living in or near active volcanic regions,
especially on volcanic islands; however, hazard arising from VT activity
caused by localized volcanic sources is rarely addressed in the literature.
The evolution of VT earthquakes resulting from a magmatic intrusion shows
some orderly behaviour that may allow the occurrence and magnitude
of major events to be forecast. Thus governmental decision makers can be supplied
with warnings of the increased probability of larger-magnitude earthquakes on the
short-term timescale. We present here a methodology for forecasting the
occurrence of large-magnitude VT events during volcanic crises; it is based
on a mean recurrence time (MRT) algorithm that translates the
Gutenberg-Richter distribution parameter fluctuations into time windows of
increased probability of a major VT earthquake. The MRT forecasting algorithm
was developed after observing a repetitive pattern in the seismic swarm
episodes occurring between July and November 2011 at El Hierro (Canary
Islands). From then on, this methodology has been applied to the consecutive
seismic crises registered at El Hierro, achieving a high success rate in the
real-time forecasting, within 10-day time windows, of volcano-tectonic
earthquakes