Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 228:A soft edge target zone model: theory and application to Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003,the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005

A soft edge target zone model: Theory and application to Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005.currency board arrangement; target zone model; credibility; Hong Kong

Hong Kong's Currency Board and Changing Monetary Regimes

The paper discusses the historical background and institutional details of Hong Kong's currency board. We argue that its experience provides a good opportunity to test the macroeconomic implications of the currency board regime. Using the method of Blanchard and Quah (1989), we show that the parameters of the structural equations and the characteristics of supply and demand shocks have significantly changed since adopting the regime. Variance decomposition and impulse response analyses indicate Hong Kong's currency board is less susceptible to supply shocks, but demand shocks can cause greater short-term volatility under the system. The decent performance of Hong Kong's currency board is due mainly to the stable fiscal policy of its government. Counter-factual exercises also show that three-fourths of the reduction in observed output volatility and two-thirds of that in observed inflation volatility are explained by the adoption of the currency board, while the remainder is explained by changes in the external environment. The improvement in stability does not rule out the possibility of monetary collapse, however.

Estonian Monetary System: Reconstruction, Performance, and Future Prospects

Nearly twenty years have passed since the beginning of the transition from the planned economy to the market economy system in Estonia. A successful transition to a market economy requires a sound currency and Estonia introduced its own currency in June 1992. Estonia has been quite successful in achieving economic stability and growth and steadily declining inflation. An essential element of Estonia?s economic development success has been the currency board-based monetary system that has served as a signal of commitment to prudent monetary policy and as a guarantee of sound money during the transition period. We discuss the experience of operating the currency board in Estonia and future prospects of the currency board arrangement in Estonia in the framework of the European Union and the future joining the Economic and Monetary Union. --monetary system,currency reform,currency board,monetary policy

A Mexican currency board?

A look at the pros and cons of replacing Mexico's central bank with a currency board, explaining that although a currency board would eliminate monetary policy discretion and help to restore faith in the peso's purchasing power, it would also prevent exchange-rate changes from aiding economic adjustments.Currency boards ; Mexico

Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong.

In this paper evidence on whether Hong Kong's currency board arrangement, in place since 1983, has affected volatility of real macroeconomic variables is presented. Simple evidence on the relative volatilities of relevant macroeconomic variables pre and post 1983 is presented, before a more formal econometric framework is utilised to examine the linkages between the exchange rate and the real economy. It is found that the currency board period has been one of relative stability in Hong Kong, though it has also been a period where external factors have been relatively benign. Even after controlling for the external environment it is found that the currency board period is one of low macroeconomic volatility.EXCHANGE RATE ; MACROECONOMICS ; FORECASTS

Design and Operation of Existing Currency Board Arrangements

This paper summarizes recent literature on the experience of some existing currency boards. It begins with the definition of the currency board and the description of some existing currency boards. It then discusses advantages and disadvantages of implementing the currency board regime, and concludes with a list of conditions that must be satisfied if a country wants to adopt this monetary framework.currency board

The Argentine Currency Board

This paper evaluates the usefulness of a currency board regime based on Argentina’s experience. Argentina adopted the currency board in March 1991 to put an end to a long history of large macroeconomic imbalances and high inflation that culminated in the hyperinflation process of 1989-91. The regime has been extremely successful in restoring macroeconomic stability and ensuring low inflation. The adoption of a tight fiscal stance, and of sound polices to strengthen the financial system were critical to ensure the resilience of the economy to respond to adverse external shocks. The paper will argue that a strict exchange rate rule like the one used in Argentina can be a strong alternative to other exchange rate regimes to ensure macroeconomic stability in a globalized world with highly integrated capital markets.

On the sustainability of currency boards : evidence from Argentina and Hong Kong : [Version: September 2008]

This paper examines the sustainability of the currency board arrangements in Argentina and Hong Kong. We employ a Markov switching model with two regimes to infer the exchange rate pressure due to economic fundamentals and market expectations. The empirical results suggest that economic fundamentals and expectations are key determinants of a currency board’s sustainability. We also show that the government’s credibility played a more important role in Argentina than in Hong Kong. The trade surplus, real exchange rate and inflation rate were more important drivers of the sustainability of the Hong Kong currency board

Currency Board Arrangements: Arguments for and Against Adoption in Indonesia

Tulisan ini mendiskusikan argumen-argumen pro-kontra perancangan “currency board“ di Indonesia. Pada waktu krisis ekonomi melanda Indonesia, pemerintah pernah mempertimbangkan kemungkinan pengadopsian “currency board“ guna mengatasi krisis dan menstabilkan perekonomian. Berdasarkan perdebatan panjang mengenai keuntungan dan kerugian penerapan “currency board“ di Indonesia, dapat disimpulkan bahwasanya “necessary condition“ bagi Indonesia untuk mengadopsi “currency board“ selama krisis tidak terpenuhi. Indonesia tidak mempunyai cukup cadangan valuta asing untuk menyokong basis moneter dan sistem perbankan belum siap menerima kondisi “no the lender of last resort.” Keputusan untuk tidak menerapkan “currency board” selama krisis ekonomi merupakan keputusan yang rasional