Predictability of Critical Transitions

Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socio-economic changes and climate transitions between ice-ages and warm-ages. From bifurcation theory we can expect certain critical transitions to be preceded by a decreased recovery from external perturbations. The consequences of this critical slowing down have been observed as an increase in variance and autocorrelation prior to the transition. However especially in the presence of noise it is not clear, whether these changes in observation variables are statistically relevant such that they could be used as indicators for critical transitions. In this contribution we investigate the predictability of critical transitions in conceptual models. We study the quadratic integrate-and-fire model and the van der Pol model, under the influence of external noise. We focus especially on the statistical analysis of the success of predictions and the overall predictability of the system. The performance of different indicator variables turns out to be dependent on the specific model under study and the conditions of accessing it. Furthermore, we study the influence of the magnitude of transitions on the predictive performance

Critical Exponents for Granular Phase Transitions

The solid--fluid phase transition of a granular material shaken horizontally is investigated numerically. We find that it is a second-order phase transition and propose two order parameters, namely the averaged kinetic energy and the averaged granular temperature, to determine the fluidization point precisely. It scales with the acceleration of the external vibration. Using this fluidization point as critical point, we discuss the scaling of the kinetic energy and show that the kinetic energy and the granular temperature show two different universal critical point exponents for a wide range of excitation amplitudes.Comment: 6 pages, including 6 figures. Uses Epic and EEpic macros (provided

Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions in complex networks

Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress builds on a mathematical framework in which a real-world system is described by a low-dimensional equation system with a small number of key variables, where the critical transition often corresponds to a bifurcation. Here we show that in high-dimensional systems, containing many variables, we frequently encounter an additional non-bifurcative saddle-type mechanism leading to critical transitions. This generic class of transitions has been missed in the search for early-warnings up to now. In fact, the saddle-type mechanism also applies to low-dimensional systems with saddle-dynamics. Near a saddle a system moves slowly and the state may be perceived as stable over substantial time periods. We develop an early warning sign for the saddle-type transition. We illustrate our results in two network models and epidemiological data. This work thus establishes a connection from critical transitions to networks and an early warning sign for a new type of critical transition. In complex models and big data we anticipate that saddle-transitions will be encountered frequently in the future.Comment: revised versio

Interplay of quantum and classical fluctuations near quantum critical points

For a system near a quantum critical point (QCP), above its lower critical dimension $d_L$, there is in general a critical line of second order phase transitions that separates the broken symmetry phase at finite temperatures from the disordered phase. The phase transitions along this line are governed by thermal critical exponents that are different from those associated with the quantum critical point. We point out that, if the effective dimension of the QCP, $d_{eff}=d+z$ ($d$ is the Euclidean dimension of the system and $z$ the dynamic quantum critical exponent) is above its upper critical dimension $d_C$, there is an intermingle of classical (thermal) and quantum critical fluctuations near the QCP. This is due to the breakdown of the generalized scaling relation $\psi=\nu z$ between the shift exponent $\psi$ of the critical line and the crossover exponent $\nu z$, for $d+z>d_C$ by a \textit{dangerous irrelevant interaction}. This phenomenon has clear experimental consequences, like the suppression of the amplitude of classical critical fluctuations near the line of finite temperature phase transitions as the critical temperature is reduced approaching the QCP.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, to be published in Brazilian Journal of Physic

Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems

The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and non-bifurcation type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

Condensate-induced transitions and critical spin chains

We show that condensate-induced transitions between two-dimensional topological phases provide a general framework to relate one-dimensional spin models at their critical points. We demonstrate this using two examples. First, we show that two well-known spin chains, namely the XY chain and the transverse field Ising chain with only next-nearest-neighbor interactions, differ at their critical points only by a non-local boundary term and can be related via an exact mapping. The boundary term constrains the set of possible boundary conditions of the transverse field Ising chain, reducing the number of primary fields in the conformal field theory that describes its critical behavior. We argue that the reduction of the field content is equivalent to the confinement of a set of primary fields, in precise analogy to the confinement of quasiparticles resulting from a condensation of a boson in a topological phase. As the second example we show that when a similar confining boundary term is applied to the XY chain with only next-nearest-neighbor interactions, the resulting system can be mapped to a local spin chain with the u(1)_2 x u(1)_2 critical behavior predicted by the condensation framework.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure; v2: several minor textual change

Critical region of long-range depinning transitions

The depinning transition of elastic interfaces with an elastic interaction kernel decaying as 1/rd+σ is characterized by critical exponents which continuously vary with σ. These exponents are expected to be unique and universal, except in the fully coupled (−d<σ≤0) limit, where they depend on the “smooth” or “cuspy” nature of the microscopic pinning potential. By accurately comparing the depinning transition for cuspy and smooth potentials in a specially devised depinning model, we explain such peculiar limits in terms of the vanishing of the critical region for smooth potentials, as we decrease σ from the short-range (σ≥2) to the fully coupled case. Our results have practical implications for the determination of critical depinning exponents and identification of depinning universality classes in concrete experimental depinning systems with nonlocal elasticity, such as contact lines of liquids and fractures.Fil: Kolton, Alejandro Benedykt. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; ArgentinaFil: Jagla, Eduardo Alberto. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte; Argentina. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Centro Atómico Bariloche; Argentin

Critical behaviours of contact near phase transitions

A central quantity of importance for ultracold atoms is contact, which measures two-body correlations at short distances in dilute systems. It appears in universal relations among thermodynamic quantities, such as large momentum tails, energy, and dynamic structure factors, through the renowned Tan relations. However, a conceptual question remains open as to whether or not contact can signify phase transitions that are insensitive to short-range physics. Here we show that, near a continuous classical or quantum phase transition, contact exhibits a variety of critical behaviors, including scaling laws and critical exponents that are uniquely determined by the universality class of the phase transition and a constant contact per particle. We also use a prototypical exactly solvable model to demonstrate these critical behaviors in one-dimensional strongly interacting fermions. Our work establishes an intrinsic connection between the universality of dilute many-body systems and universal critical phenomena near a phase transition.Comment: Final version published in Nat. Commun. 5:5140 doi: 10.1038/ncomms6140 (2014