Beyond first-order asymptotics for Cox regression

To go beyond standard first-order asymptotics for Cox regression, we develop parametric bootstrap and second-order methods. In general, computation of $P$-values beyond first order requires more model specification than is required for the likelihood function. It is problematic to specify a censoring mechanism to be taken very seriously in detail, and it appears that conditioning on censoring is not a viable alternative to that. We circumvent this matter by employing a reference censoring model, matching the extent and timing of observed censoring. Our primary proposal is a parametric bootstrap method utilizing this reference censoring model to simulate inferential repetitions of the experiment. It is shown that the most important part of improvement on first-order methods - that pertaining to fitting nuisance parameters - is insensitive to the assumed censoring model. This is supported by numerical comparisons of our proposal to parametric bootstrap methods based on usual random censoring models, which are far more unattractive to implement. As an alternative to our primary proposal, we provide a second-order method requiring less computing effort while providing more insight into the nature of improvement on first-order methods. However, the parametric bootstrap method is more transparent, and hence is our primary proposal. Indications are that first-order partial likelihood methods are usually adequate in practice, so we are not advocating routine use of the proposed methods. It is however useful to see how best to check on first-order approximations, or improve on them, when this is expressly desired.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/13-BEJ572 in the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Semiparametric linear regression with censored data and stochastic regressors

We propose three new estimation procedures in the linear regression model with randomly-right censored data when the distribution function of the error term is unspecified, regressors are stochastic and the distribution function of the censoring variable is not necessarily the same for all observations ("unequal censoring"). The proposed procedures are derived combining techniques which produce accurate estimates with "equal censoring" with kernel-conditionalı Kaplan-Meier estimates. The performance of six estimation procedures (the three proposed methods and three alternative ones) is compared by means of some Monte Carlo experiments

A semi-Markov model for stroke with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring.

This paper presents a parametric method of fitting semi-Markov models with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring. We investigate transition intensities in a three-state illness-death model with no recovery. We relax the Markov assumption by adjusting the intensity for the transition from state 2 (illness) to state 3 (death) for the time spent in state 2 through a time-varying covariate. This involves the exact time of the transition from state 1 (healthy) to state 2. When the data are subject to left or interval censoring, this time is unknown. In the estimation of the likelihood, we take into account interval censoring by integrating out all possible times for the transition from state 1 to state 2. For left censoring, we use an Expectation-Maximisation inspired algorithm. A simulation study reflects the performance of the method. The proposed combination of statistical procedures provides great flexibility. We illustrate the method in an application by using data on stroke onset for the older population from the UK Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study

A Churn for the Better: Localizing Censorship using Network-level Path Churn and Network Tomography

Recent years have seen the Internet become a key vehicle for citizens around the globe to express political opinions and organize protests. This fact has not gone unnoticed, with countries around the world repurposing network management tools (e.g., URL filtering products) and protocols (e.g., BGP, DNS) for censorship. However, repurposing these products can have unintended international impact, which we refer to as "censorship leakage". While there have been anecdotal reports of censorship leakage, there has yet to be a systematic study of censorship leakage at a global scale. In this paper, we combine a global censorship measurement platform (ICLab) with a general-purpose technique -- boolean network tomography -- to identify which AS on a network path is performing censorship. At a high-level, our approach exploits BGP churn to narrow down the set of potential censoring ASes by over 95%. We exactly identify 65 censoring ASes and find that the anomalies introduced by 24 of the 65 censoring ASes have an impact on users located in regions outside the jurisdiction of the censoring AS, resulting in the leaking of regional censorship policies

Impact Assessment of Bt Corn Adoption in the Philippines

This article examines the impact of Bt corn adoption in the Philippines using an econometric approach that addresses simultaneity, selection, and censoring problems. Although previous literature emphasizes the importance of simultaneity and selection problems, this is the first study that addresses the issue of censoring in estimating the effects of Bt corn adoption at the farm in a developing country context. We show that Bt corn adoption provides modest but statistically significant increases in farm yields and profits. Furthermore, our results provide some evidence of inference errors that can potentially arise when censoring in the pesticide application variable is ignored in the estimation procedures.Bt, censoring, corn, farm level impacts, genetically modified crops, pesticide use, technology adoption, International Development, Production Economics, Q12, Q16,