Making the market: How U.S. Policy influences near term agriculture and biofuel industry production and profitability under technology adoption

The beneficiaries of technology adoption in agriculture and biofuels markets in the United States are heavily influenced by domestic biofuel policies and market context. Biofuel mandates, one of the key pillars of domestic biofuel policies, may significantly alter the elasticity of demand for biofuels as well as the derived demand for maize used to produce a significant share of ethanol in the United States. Using a stochastic agriculture and biofuels model, we assess how the introduction of technology may affect the crops and biofuel markets under binding and non-binding biofuel mandates and discuss the implications for analysis of EU biofuel policies.biofuels, policy, technology adoption, mandates, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

Implications of the Biofuels Boom for the Global Livestock Industry: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

In this paper, we offer a general equilibrium analysis of the impacts of US and EU biofuel mandates for the global livestock sector. Our simulation boosts biofuel production in the US and EU from 2006 levels to mandated 2015 levels. We show that mandates will encourage crop production in both biofuel and non biofuel producing regions, while reducing livestock and livestock production in most regions of the world. The non-ruminant industry curtails its production more than other livestock industries. The numerical results suggest that the biofuel mandates reduce food production in most regions while they increase crude vegetable oils in almost all regions. Implementing biofuel mandates in the US and EU will increase croplands within the biofuel and non-biofuel producer regions. A large portion of this increase will be obtained from reduced grazing lands. The biofuel producing regions are expected to reduce their coarse grains exports and raise imports of oilseeds and vegetable oils. While all livestock industries use more biofuel byproducts in their animal feed rations, the dairy and other ruminant industry benefit most from the expansion of DDGS. We finally conclude that, while biofuel mandates have important consequences for the livestock industry, they do not harshly curtail these industries. This is largely due to the important role of byproducts in substituting for higher priced feedstuffs. In addition, with relatively inelastic food demands, producers are able to pass much of the price rise on to consumers. In general, US, EU, Meddle East & North Africa, and Russia will experience significant welfare loses due to the combined US and EU mandates, while Brazil, Japan, India, and East Asia are expected to get major gains.Biofuels, Livestock, Feed Ration, Biofuel Co-Product, Land Use, Livestock Production/Industries,

Biofuels: Potentials, Problems & Solutions

Biofuels have the exciting potential of mitigating the grave threats of global warming, reducing the world\u27s dependence on imported oil from insecure sources and of reducing the skyrocketing costs of oil that are threatening to undermine the world\u27s economies and devastating the people in non-oil producing, developing countries. For the people in these countries, biofuel offer a promising road to enhance development since they use local materials, can provide local jobs, and do not require the import of expensive equipment and expertise. Brazil has been the pioneer in the use of biofuel, allowing it to eliminate its oil imports, becoming completely energy independent, and demonstrating to the world the potential benefits of substitution of biofuels for fossil fuels. Indeed, inspired by Brazil\u27s example, the United States in recent years has developed a strong biofuel industry, albeit from the disadvantageous feedstock of corn. The United States has just created an alliance with Brazil to make major purchases of its biofuels. The European Union and countries around the world are rapidly developing their own biofuel potentials. But Brazil and its replicators have to exercise great care in designing and implementing biofuel programs. The environmental and social risks of biofuel development, also demonstrated in Brazil, are great and could well undermine all of the potential advantages if not done right

Biofuel Subsidies: An Open-Economy Analysis

We present a general equilibrium analysis of biofuel subsidies in an open-economy context. In the small-country case, when a Pigouvian tax on conventional fuels such as crude is in place, the optimal biofuel subsidy is zero. When the tax on crude is not available as a policy option, however, a second-best biofuel subsidy (or tax) is optimal. In the large-country case, the optimal tax on crude departs from its standard Pigouvian level and a biofuel subsidy is optimal. A biofuel subsidy spurs global demand for food and confers a terms-of-trade benefit to the food-exporting nation. This might encourage the food-exporting nation to use a subsidy even if it raises global crude use. The food importer has no such incentive for subsidization. Terms-of-trade effects wash out between trading nations; hence, any policy intervention by the two trading nations that raises crude use must be jointly suboptimal.optimal biofuel subsidy, Pigouvian tax, terms-of-trade, pollution externality

The market development of avaition biofuel: drivers and constraints

Aviation biofuel is technically viable and nearing the commercial stage. In the last ten years, biofuels have moved from relative obscurity to a point where certain types of fuel have become fully certified for commercial use in up to 50% blends with standard jet fuel and commercial partnerships between airlines and biofuel producers are being established. Yet despite numerous successful test flights, aviation biofuels have yet to become widely commercialised. Drawing on the findings of in-depth interviews with leading global aviation biofuel stakeholders undertaken between October and December 2011, this paper identifies and examines the perceived factors that are affecting the market development of biofuels for aviation. The paper illustrates that market development is being driven by the combined effects of rising jet fuel prices, the potential future impact of emissions legislation and concerns about fuel (in)security. However, commercialisation is being constrained by high production costs, limited availability of suitable feedstocks, uncertainty surrounding the definition of the sustainability criteria, and a perceived lack of both national and international political and policy support for aviation biofuel. The implications of these findings for commercial aviation and the future development of global market for aviation biofuel market are discussed

Economics and agricultural market impacts of growing biofuel production

This paper analyses the economics of biofuel production and the implications that the accelerating growth in biofuel production in many countries could have on agricultural markets. It shows that production costs of ethanol and biodiesel differ significantly across countries and feedstock crops. These costs often exceed those of fossil fuels. In consequence, the economics of biofuel production depends on public support in most countries. Similarly, land requirements for crops required to enable significant shares of biofuel production in transport fuel consumption are shown to be substantial in many countries given current technologies. An expected growth in biofuel production is, therefore, likely to have a significant increasing impact on world prices for sugar, cereals and oilseeds beyond what is caused by higher crude oil prices alone. The paper points out a number of policy issues that require attention and further analysis to facilitate a fuller discussion of biofuel policies.biofuels, production costs, resource requirements, agricultural market impacts, biofuel policies, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Biofuels: Political/Economic Boondoggle or Energy Salvation for Western States?

Nearly all western states lack comparative advantages for producing corn for ethanol and oilseeds for biodiesel. Despite this disadvantage, most western states have legislated incentives for production of biofuels. Unfavorable changes in price relationships, high transportation costs for imported feedstocks, and tight credit markets in 2008 and 2009 led to bankruptcies and plant closures at a disproportionate rate in the western biofuel industry. Policy makers in western states are advised to fund research and development for bioenergy and biofuel feedstocks in which they have a comparative advantage. These include forestry by-products, food processing and crop residues, and livestock wastes.biodiesel, bioenergy research, biofuels, biofuel bankruptcies, biofuel feedstocks, biofuel incentives, corn ethanol, western United States, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

IMPACTS OF EUROPEAN BIOFUEL POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL MARKETS AND ENVIRONMENT UNDER CONSIDERATION OF 2ND GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Even though recent discussions on food prices and indirect land use change point at potential conflicts associated with the production of biofuels the appraisal of biofuels as an effective instrument to slow down climate change and reduce energy dependency still prevails. The EU Renewable Energy Directive (EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2009) underlines this trend by setting a target of 10% share of energy from renewable sources in the transport sector by 2020. As economic competitiveness of biofuel production is still not given in most European countries, support policies are essential to achieve this target. Second generation technologies have still not attained marketability, wherefore biofuel consumption will continue to significantly affect agricultural markets. Furthermore, biofuel trade receives more attention. Apart from Brazil the USA has evolved to one of the key biofuel producer in recent years replacing the EU as the dominant biodiesel exporter. Those developments in regions outside the EU have to be considered within the evolution of biofuel markets. The primary objective of this paper is to analyse in detail impacts of future biofuel developments on agricultural markets under several assumptions regarding the availability of 2nd generation technologies, the EU support policy framework and the EU trade policy regime. Therefore, we developed an extended version of the comparative static agricultural sector model CAPRI which covers global biofuel markets with a detailed focus on Europe. The results supplement already existing model-based impact assessments while focussing on EU Member State level and introducing global bilateral trade of biofuels based on the Armington approach. The results of our scenario analysis presented in this paper indicate that the European 2020 biofuel target will significantly affect global and European biofuel- as well as agricultural markets. Thereby, global biofuel trade will notably increase, especially flows of biodiesel from the USA and Argentina and of ethanol from Brazil into the EU will increase accentuating the net-importing position of the EU by 2020. On the agricultural markets, we can observe that additional demand caused by European biofuel production will be, on the one hand, partially compensated by substitution effects on the feed market and, on the other hand, mainly filled by increasing imports. Thus, effects on agricultural product prices will also be significant, while effects on EU agricultural production will only be marginal. This leads consequently to only marginal environmental impacts within Europe and confirm the assumption that notable environmental effects caused by EU biofuel production and consumption will mainly take place outside Europe, especially in those countries which are important producers of biofuel feedstock.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Consequences of EU Biofuel Policies on Agricultural Production and Land Use

This article assesses the implications of European Union (EU) biofuel policies based on a general equilibrium framework with endogenous land supply. The results show that, without policy intervention to stimulate the use of biofuel crops, the targets set by the EU Biofuels Directive will not be met. European biofuel policies boosting demand for biofuel crops have a strong impact on agriculture globally and within Europe, leading to an increase in land use. On the other hand, the long–term declining trend in real agricultural prices may slow down or even reverse

Engineering management of gas turbine power plant co2 for microalgae biofuel production

Fossil fuel accounts for over 80% of the world`s primary energy, particularly in areas of transportation, manufacturing and domestic heating. However, depletion of fossil reserves, frequent threats to the security of fossil fuel supply, coupled with concerns over emissions of greenhouse gases associated with fossil fuel use has motivated research towards developing renewable and sustainable sources for energy fuels. Consequently, the use of microalgae culture to convert CO2 from power plants flue gases into biomass that are readily converted into biofuel offers a window of opportunities to enhance, compliment or replace fossil- fuel-use. Interest in the use of microalgae biomass for biofuel production is high as it affords the potential for power plant CO2 sequestration – (1kg of dry algae biomass uses about 1.83kg CO2). Similarly, its capacity to utilise nutrients from a variety of wastewater, sets it apart from other biomass resources. These outlined benefits all emphasis the need for extended R&D efforts to advance commercial microalgae biofuel production. The paper is aimed at investigating the environmental performance of the microalgae biofuel production process using LCA