Factors Affecting ENSO’s Period

Accurately capturing the observed mean period of ENSO in general circulation models (GCMs) is often challenging, and it is therefore useful to understand which parameters and processes affect this period. A computationally efficient simulation-based approach is used to extract both the dominant eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors of the linearized model from the Zebiak–Cane intermediate-complexity model of ENSO without having to directly construct the linearization. The sensitivity of the period to a variety of parameters is examined, including atmosphere–ocean coupling, atmospheric heating parameterization, thermocline depth zonal profile, western boundary reflection coefficient, atmospheric and ocean wave speeds or Rossby radii of deformation, ocean decay time, and the strength of the annual cycle. In addition to the sensitivity information, the spatial structures of the main fields (SST, thermocline thickness, and more) that are involved in period changes are obtained to aid in the physical interpretation of the sensitivities. There are three main time lags that together compose one-half of a model ENSO period: the Rossby-plus-Kelvin wave propagation time for a wind-caused central Pacific disturbance to propagate to the western ocean and back, SST dynamics that determine the lag between eastern ocean thermocline anomalies and eastern ocean SST anomalies, and the “accumulation” lag of integrating a sufficient delayed wave signal arriving from the western ocean to cancel the eastern ocean anomalies. For any of the parameter changes considered, the eigenvector changes show that the largest contributor to the period change is from changes to the last of these three mechanisms. Physical mechanisms that affect this accumulation delay are discussed, and the case is made that any significant change to ENSO’s period is in turn likely to involve changes to this delay

Applying engineering feedback analysis tools to climate dynamics

The application of feedback analysis tools from engineering control theory to problems in climate dynamics is discussed through two examples. First, the feedback coupling between the thermohaline circulation and wind-driven circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean is analyzed with a relatively simple model, in order to better understand the coupled system dynamics. The simulation behavior is compared with analysis using root locus (in the linear regime) and describing functions (to predict limit cycle amplitude). The second example does not directly involve feedback, but rather uses simulation-based identification of low-order dynamics to understand parameter sensitivity in a model of El Nino/Southern Oscillation dynamics. The eigenvalue and eigenvector sensitivity can be used both to better understand physics and to tune more complex models. Finally, additional applications are discussed where control tools may be relevant to understand existing feedbacks in the climate system, or even to introduce new ones

Two-Way Feedback Interaction between the Thermohaline and Wind-Driven Circulations

The thermohaline circulation (THC) affects the meridional atmospheric temperature gradient and therefore the atmospheric wind and the wind-driven ocean circulation. The wind-driven circulation (WDC), in turn, affects the THC by the advection of salinity anomalies into deep-water formation sites. This paper considers this two-way coupling between the WDC and THC using a simple box-type model and analysis tools from engineering feedback control. The two-way feedback can have a significant effect on the dynamics of the coupled system. For a reasonable choice of parameters, the feedback destabilizes the THC equilibrium for low freshwater forcing. For higher freshwater forcing, the feedback results in a new stable equilibrium instead of the large amplitude oscillation that develops without feedback. It is expected that the analysis approach used here may be broadly applicable to the study of feedback interconnections of other climate systems as well

Rain driven by receding ice sheets as a cause of past climate change

The Younger Dryas cold period, which interrupted the transition from the last ice age to modern conditions in Greenland, is one of the most dramatic incidents of abrupt climate change reconstructed from paleoclimate proxy records. Changes in the Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation in response to freshwater fluxes from melting ice are frequently invoked to explain this and other past climate changes. Here we propose an alternative mechanism in which the receding glacial ice sheets cause the atmospheric circulation to enter a regime with greater net precipitation in the North Atlantic region. This leads to a significant reduction in ocean overturning circulation, causing an increase in sea ice extent and hence colder temperatures. Positive feedbacks associated with sea ice amplify the cooling. We support the proposed mechanism with the results of a state-of-the-art global climate model. Our results suggest that the atmospheric precipitation response to receding glacial ice sheets could have contributed to the Younger Dryas cooling, as well as to other past climate changes involving the ocean overturning circulation

The Effect of Milankovitch Variations in Insolation on Equatorial Seasonality

Although the sun crosses the equator 2 times per year at the equinoxes, at times in the past the equatorial insolation has had only one maximum and one minimum throughout the seasonal cycle because of Milankovitch orbital variations. Here a state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model is used to study the effect of such insolation forcing on equatorial surface properties, including air and sea temperature, salinity, winds, and currents. It is shown that the equatorial seasonality is altered according to the insolation with, for example, either maximum sea surface temperature (SST) close to the vernal equinox and minimum SST close to the autumnal equinox or vice versa. The results may have important implications for understanding tropical climate as well as for the interpretation of proxy data collected from equatorial regions

Mixing and general circulation dynamics : theory and observations

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution February 1987This thesis studies the role of cross-isopycnal mixing in general circulation dynamics, from both the theoretical and observational points of view. The first two chapters discuss some theoretical aspects of cross-isopycnal mixing in the oceans. In chapter one, an integral constraint relating the interior stratification and air-sea heat fluxes is derived, based on the condition that the total mass of water of given density is constant in a steady state ocean. Two simple models are then used to examine the way the numerically small mixing, together with air-sea fluxes, determines the average vertical density stratification of the oceans, and the deep buoyancy driven circulation. In chapter two, a more complete model of a deep flow driven by cross isopycnal diffusion is presented, motivated by the Mediterranean outflow into the North Atlantic. Mixing in this model is responsible for the determination of the detailed structure of the flow and density field, while in the models of the first chapter it was allowed to determine only the average vertical density stratification. In chapter three, a hydrographic data set from the Mediterranean sea is analyzed by inverse methods. The purpose is to examine the importance of mixing when trying to explain tracer distributions in the ocean. The time-mean circulation and the appropriate mixing coefficients are calculated from the hydrographic data. We conclude that the numerically small cross isopycnal mixing processes are crucial to the dynamics, yet difficult to parameterize and measure using available hydrographic data.NSF grants OCE-8521685 and OCE-8017791 supported me during my studies in the joint program

Coherent Resonat millenial-scale climate transitions triggered by massive meltwater pulses

The role of mean and stochastic freshwater forcing on the generation of millennial-scale climate variability in the North Atlantic is studied using a low-order coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model. It is shown that millennial-scale oscillations can be excited stochastically, when the North Atlantic Ocean is fresh enough. This finding is used in order to interpret the aftermath of massive iceberg surges (Heinrich events) in the glacial North Atlantic, which are characterized by an excitation of Dansgaard–Oeschger events. Based on model results, it is hypothesized that Heinrich events trigger Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles and that furthermore the occurrence of Heinrich events is dependent on the accumulated climatic effect of a series of Dansgaard–Oeschger events. This scenario leads to a coupled ocean–ice sheet oscillation that shares many similarities with the Bond cycle. Further sensitivity experiments reveal that the timescale of the oscillations can be decomposed into stochastic, linear, and nonlinear deterministic components. A schematic bifurcation diagram is used to compare theoretical results with paleoclimatic data