The Cambridge Crime Harm Index: Measuring Total Harm from Crime Based on Sentencing Guidelines

The logic of simply summing crimes of all kind into a single total has long been challenged as misleading. All crimes are not created equal. Counting them as if they are fosters distortion of risk assessments, resource allocation, and accountability. To solve this problem, Sherman (2007, 2010, 2011 and 2013) has offered a general proposal to create a weighted 'Crime Harm Index (CHI).' This article provides and explicates a detailed procedure for operationalizing this idea in UK: what we call the 'Cambridge CHI.' The new elements of the Cambridge CHI presented here are (1) the use of the 'starting point' in the national Sentencing Guidelines to define the number of days in prison for each offence type; (2) the exclusion of proactively detected, previously unreported offences, and (3) a comparative analysis of the Cambridge and other approaches to weighting crime harm, judged by a three-pronged test of democracy, reliability, and cost

First time offenders as once and future victims: Using police records to explore the victim-offender overlap in the Turning Point Project

Introduction The victim-offender overlap is an important phenomenon in criminology (Jennings et al, 2012). The research supporting the existence of the overlap is undisputable and it is arguably one of the most significant facts in criminology (Bottoms and Costello, 2010). Current research has neglected critical areas and answers are needed about how victimisation and offending co-occur and how to identify those victim-offenders who are most harmed (Bottoms and Costello, 2010). Furthermore, there is limited knowledge about what effect interventions such as out of court disposals (OOCD) have on the overlap, or if there is potential to build a triage tool or algorithm to identify the most harmed in future. Research questions These will focus on four areas victimisation – including types, frequency and harm, the victim-offender overlap, the impact on police reported victimisation by an OOCD, and finally if from criminal and victimisation history prior to the intervention date can outcomes post be predicted. 1). What does victimisation look like in low-level offenders when explored through police records in terms of prevalence, frequency, types, and harm? 2). What are the patterns and relationships between victimisation and offending in this sample? 3). What is the impact of an out of court disposal that aimed to be as effective at reducing offending as sending individuals to court on victimisation? 4). Can victimisation be predicted, and can who is most at-risk of becoming victim-offenders be predicted? Methods This PhD thesis used the police records of offending and victimisation from the sample of low-level offenders taking part in the Turning Point Project. Which was a randomised control trial (RCT) comparing sending low level offenders through court processing against an OOCD. Victimisation and offending data were collected from police data systems (CRIMES, Police National Computer, and ICIS), matched manually using name and date of birth. Before being analysed in R, basic descriptive statistics, correlations, and odds ratios were used for the first two parts of the analysis. Results from the RCT were analysed using chi square, effect sizes and survival analysis. The final section of the thesis used cox’s regression and binomial logistic regression to examine the impact of pre randomisation variables. Results The victim-offender overlap was found to be extensive with 63% of the sample reporting a form of victimisation. Victimisation experiences and involvement in offending varied throughout the sample. Violence was most the most prevalent form of both victimisation and offending, caused the most victimisation harm, and had the largest overlap between victimisation and offending. The analysis of harm indicated these low-level offenders reported victimisations that equalled a total 82,180.5 harm points on the Cambridge Crime Harm Index. Using a harm score allowed five different groupings for victimisation to be created, based on the total harm and total number of victimisations suffered. Combining victimisation and offending in this sample showed some complex patterns, and while the two were clearly related this was not a simple positive correlation. The results of the RCT showed no effect of the intervention on male low-level offenders for either prevalence, frequency, survival, or harm for victimisation. However, a significant backfire effect on all measures was seen for female low-level offenders. Further research concludes this effect is most likely attributable to the significantly higher victimisation occurring prior to randomisation. Finally, the results of the regression analysis indicated key variables associated with increased risk, although the models used here produced high rates of false negatives. Victimisation is more likely to occur if the individual is still involved in offending and key predictive variables differ between victim only, offender only, non-involved and victim-offenders. With victim-offenders tending to be younger, be involved in offending or victimisation prior. Discussion Consistent with prior research low-level offenders show a substantial overlap, indicating that low-level can be experiencing problematic and concerning levels of victimisation. While the precise mechanism cannot be discerned from this study, it is proposed that understanding both the individual propensity and the environmental exposure is important. This provides some suggestions for beneficial interventions and how to target victim-offenders effectively. While the results here did not produce a clear case for the benefits of OOCD, the results indicated for male low-level offenders the OOCD was “as good as” preventing victimisation as court processing. This mirrored the findings for offending for the OOCD, suggesting that inventions that have null effects on offending are likely to have the same on victimisation. The picture for female low-level offenders is more complex, and while it is likely related to the initially higher levels further investigation would be advisable. Finally, while the models used here produced high rates of false negatives and were limited in their explanatory power, they did highlight key variables and groups to focus on. Indicating this may be an approach to explore further in future. Policy implications This research suggests six key considerations for policy: 1). Given the amount of victimisation present in low level offenders any policy aimed at low level offenders needs to be written with the explicit understanding that there will be high levels of victimisation present. 2). Prevention of violence is a key policy that should be taken from this thesis. Violence was the most prevalent form of both victimisation and offending and caused the most harm from victimisation. 3). Issues are not distributed equally throughout, and resources should be targeted to those suffering or causing the most harm. Using number alongside harm may provide a context that allows better targeting of resources. 4). Any intervention research into preventing offending needs to include a measure of victimisation alongside that of offending, and vice versa. Without these important effects may be being missed, and policy decisions are not being made based on the best evidence. 5). Due to the link between victimisation and offending in those where cooccurring issues are identified, interventions should aim to approach both simultaneously. 6). Victimisation, offending and becoming a victim-offending appear to be outcomes that could to some degree be predicted through algorithms or machine learning. Therefore, policy should consider utilising this approach to improve the accuracy of decisions. Conclusion The study reiterates the importance of the victim-offender overlap and indicates even among low-level offenders the overlap can be extensive and problematic. The results here present important findings on several aspects including the first known analysis of victimisation from a RCT aimed at prevention of offending. The potential to prevent future harm from the policy implications outlined in this study are potentially vast, and the approaching victimisation and offending simultaneously could produce wide ranging benefits. The victim-offender overlap should be the centre of future policy and research.The Jerry Lee Foundatio

Intramuscular Contributions to Low-Frequency Force Potentiation Induced by a High-Frequency Conditioning Stimulation.

Electrically-evoked low-frequency (submaximal) force is increased immediately following high-frequency stimulation in human skeletal muscle. Although central mechanisms have been suggested to be the major cause of this low-frequency force potentiation, intramuscular factors might contribute. Thus, we hypothesized that two intramuscular Ca(2+)-dependent mechanisms can contribute to the low-frequency force potentiation: increased sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca(2+) release and increased myofibrillar Ca(2+) sensitivity. Experiments in humans were performed on the plantar flexor muscles at a shortened, intermediate, and long muscle length and electrically evoked contractile force and membrane excitability (i.e., M-wave amplitude) were recorded during a stimulation protocol. Low-frequency force potentiation was assessed by stimulating with a low-frequency tetanus (25 Hz, 2 s duration), followed by a high-frequency tetanus (100 Hz, 2 s duration), and finally followed by another low-frequency (25 Hz, 2 s duration) tetanus. Similar stimulation protocols were performed on intact mouse single fibers from flexor digitorum brevis muscle, whereby force and myoplasmic free [Ca(2+)] ([Ca(2+)]i) were assessed. Our data show a low-frequency force potentiation that was not muscle length-dependent in human muscle and it was not accompanied by any increase in M-wave amplitude. A length-independent low-frequency force potentiation could be replicated in mouse single fibers, supporting an intramuscular mechanism. We show that at physiological temperature (31°C) this low-frequency force potentiation in mouse fibers corresponded with an increase in sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca(2+) release. When mimicking the slower contractile properties of human muscle by cooling mouse single fibers to 18°C, the low-frequency force potentiation was accompanied by minimally increased SR Ca(2+) release and hence it could be explained by increased myofibrillar Ca(2+) sensitivity. Finally, introducing a brief 200 ms pause between the high- and low-frequency tetanus in human and mouse muscle revealed that the low-frequency force potentiation is abolished, arguing that increased myofibrillar Ca(2+) sensitivity is the main intramuscular mechanism underlying the low-frequency force potentiation in humans

Are There Critical Fatigue Thresholds? Aggregated vs. Individual Data

The mechanisms underlying task failure from fatiguing physical efforts have been the focus of many studies without reaching consensus. An attractive but debated model explains effort termination with a critical peripheral fatigue threshold. Upon reaching this threshold, feedback from sensory afferents would trigger task disengagement from open-ended tasks or a reduction of exercise intensity of closed-ended tasks. Alternatively, the extant literature also appears compatible with a more global critical threshold of loss of maximal voluntary contraction force. Indeed, maximal voluntary contraction force loss from fatiguing exercise realized at a given intensity appears rather consistent between different studies. However, when looking at individual data, the similar maximal force losses observed between different tasks performed at similar intensities might just be an "artifact" of data aggregation. It would then seem possible that such a difference observed between individual and aggregated data also applies to other models previously proposed to explain task failure from fatiguing physical efforts. We therefore suggest that one should be cautious when trying to infer models that try to explain individual behavior from aggregated data

Developing a Crime Harm Index for Western Australia: the WACHI

RESEARCH QUESTION Can a reliable measure of precise harm levels for the 100 most harmful and frequently occurring offences be developed in Western Australia (WA) based on analysis of actual court penalties for first-time offenders? DATA Criminal and traffic court sentences in 2.2 million records over 6.5 years were analysed to extract the number of days of imprisonment actually imposed in sentencing decisions for approximately 52,000 first-time offenders (see House 2017). METHODS Sentences for all first offenders in a sample of the 102 most common offence categories were analysed to compute for the median number of days of imprisonment to which each first offender was sentenced in each of the categories. Monetary penalties and conditional community sentences were converted to equivalent ‘prison days’ and added to the computation of the median of days of imprisonment per offence category. The number of reported offences in WA in the study period for each of the 102 categories was then multiplied by the median prison days sentenced per category. The sum of the products of median prison days times offence count was then tallied across all offence categories to form a weighted index of crime harm, which we define as the Western Australian Crime Harm Index (WACHI). Applying a minimum requirement of at least five separate court cases for each crime category, a total of 88 offence categories survived the reliability threshold for inclusion in the index. FINDINGS The 88 offence categories in the WACHI contain both high-harm and highvolume offences, permitting 95% of all offences reported for over 5 years to be assessed for WACHI scores. The counts for these offences moved in different directions from the WACHI total in two of the four year-to-year comparisons. Changes in WACHI were shown to have been highly sensitive to increased reporting of historical sex crimes, isolated in one district each of both Metropolitan Perth and one Regional centre. CONCLUSIONS Carefully implemented use of the West Australian CHI could improve both public safety and policing by adding precision to resource allocation decisions, assessments of priorities and evaluations of policing initiatives. The WACHI would be even more reflective of the changing level of harm to victims if all crime trends were to be based on crimes that occurred in the year under analysis, with separate reporting of crimes that happened many years ago. With that key adjustment, police professionals, department of justice officials, citizens and local governments can use a WACHI to make better decisions about how to prioritise policing in a wide range of contexts

Learning to Field Test in Policing: Using an analysis of completed randomised controlled trials involving the police to develop a grounded theory on the factors contributing to high levels of treatment integrity in Police Field Experiments.

Evidence-based policing (EBP) has emerged as a key strand of police innovation since Sherman’s (1998) Police Foundation lecture. However, for others EBP raises as many questions as answers. One of the most contentious areas is the role advocated for randomised controlled trials in testing practice and developing knowledge to support EBP. RCTs are controversial with some scholars who argue that policing is not comparable to medicine and that RCTs are unable to reflect the complexity of the police role and context. Even those who advocate the use of RCTs recognise that there are significant challenges in achieving the high dosage and high fidelity that a successful experiment requires. This dissertation responds to these challenges by analysing the completed randomised controlled trials in policing and using a case study, Operation Turning Point, to identify the factors that may contribute to the conduct and management of police field trials with high levels of treatment integrity. In the introduction, Chapter 1, the approach is set out, framed around grounded theory, to be developed in four, linked, chapters. Chapter 2 is focused on understanding treatment integrity in RCTs involving the police: A search for police RCTs is produced 122 Police RCTs completed and reported by 2016. The levels of treatment integrity are analysed. 78 of the 122 RCTs exceeded a 60% threshold, with 49 being above 90%. In Chapter 3, a “novice theory” is developed and tested as an explanation for levels of treatment integrity in police randomised controlled trials: Analysis of the 122 RCTs suggests that “novice theory” can provide an explanation for the general patterns of treatment integrity. Further detailed analysis suggested that there are, however, other factors which may be important in determining the treatment integrity. These are developed in Chapter 4, which centres on a case study of Operation Turning Point. Using published case studies and an analysis of juvenile justice RCTs, a potential framework of operational factors is developed that appear to be important in effective conduct and management. The Turning Point case study is used to develop and expand on those operational factors. Finally, taking the two together, the analysis concluded that, beyond the operational factors, there were some more strategic, “protective factors” that were also critical. These are developed in Chapter 5, by using the coding and analysis of interviews with a sample of key staff involved in Turning Point Our analysis suggests that novice theory needs to be understood in the context of both the operational and protective factors that we have identified. Taken together these findings indicate the potential advantages of building institutional frameworks in which the development of practitioners and researchers and the conduct and management of experimental research could be brought closer together. We conclude with ten recommendations designed to improve the treatment integrity of police RCTs.The Jerry Lee Centre for Experimental Criminology provided support for this thesi

Utilisation des infrastructures de la Grille EGI pour les simulations de CTA

Utilisation des infrastructures de la Grille EGI pour les simulations de CT

Balancing public safety and individual rights in street policing.

Whether viewed from the desk of a police chief, a city mayor, or a citizen in a deprived, high-crime community, maintaining the balance between police effectiveness and fair policing is complicated and difficult to achieve, let alone to sustain over the long term. However, it is at the heart of good policing, for when policing goes out of that balance—as happened in Brixton, London in the 1970s (1) and more recently in Ferguson, Missouri (2)—the outcome can be a major breakdown in law and order, with wider, rippling consequences for our societiesThe author is supported by the Jerry Lee Centre for Experimental Criminology at the Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge

Muscle Fatigue Affects the Interpolated Twitch Technique When Assessed Using Electrically-Induced Contractions in Human and Rat Muscles

The interpolated twitch technique (ITT) is the gold standard to assess voluntary activation and central fatigue. Yet, its validity has been questioned. Here we studied how peripheral fatigue can affect the ITT. Repeated contractions at submaximal frequencies were produced by supramaximal electrical stimulations of the human adductor pollicis muscle in vivo and of isolated rat soleus fiber bundles; an extra stimulation pulse was given during contractions to induce a superimposed twitch. Human muscles fatigued by repeated 30-Hz stimulation trains (3 s on-1 s off) showed an ~80% reduction in the superimposed twitch force accompanied by a severely reduced EMG response (M-wave amplitude), which implies action potential failure. Subsequent experiments combined a less intense stimulation protocol (1.5 s on-3 s off) with ischemia to cause muscle fatigue, but which preserved M-wave amplitude. However, the superimposed twitch force still decreased markedly more than the potentiated twitch force; with ITT this would reflect increased "voluntary activation." In contrast, the superimposed twitch force was relatively spared when a similar protocol was performed in rat soleus bundles. Force relaxation was slowed by >150% in fatigued human muscles, whereas it was unchanged in rat soleus bundles. Accordingly, results similar to those in the human muscle were obtained when relaxation was slowed by cooling the rat soleus muscles. In conclusion, our data demonstrate that muscle fatigue can confound the quantification of central fatigue using the ITT