Has long become longer or short become shorter? Evidence from a censored quantile regression analysis of the changes in the distribution of U.S. unemployment duration

There is conflicting evidence regarding the recent evolution of unemployment duration in the U.S. In this study we rely on censored quantile regression methods to analyze the changes in the US unemployment duration distribution. We employed the decomposition method proposed by Machado and Mata (2003) to disentangle the contribution of the changes generated by the covariate distribution and by the conditional distribution and adapted it to a duration analysis framework.The data used in this inquiry are taken from the nationally representative Displaced Worker Survey of 1988 and 1998. We provide evidence that the unemployment duration distribution shifted leftward. The main driving force behind that shift was the sharp leftward move in the unemployment rate distribution. This force was partially counteracted by the ageing of the displaced population, the striking absence of impact from being displaced via a plant shutdown, and the higher sensitivity of unemployment duration to unemployment ratesQuantile Regression, Duration Analysis, Unemployment Duration, Counterfactual Decomposition

Rural non-agricultural activities and poverty in the Brazilian northeast

This paper combines two complementary data sets to present a disaggregated spatial profile of poverty in the Brazilian Northeast, and to investigate the importance of non-agricultural activities for its rural dwellers. We present both univariate and multivariate profiles of non-agricultural employment and discuss its determinants. While the main occupational difference between the rural poor and the rural non-poor in Brazil seems to be the greater reliance of the former on paid agricultural employment (vis-à-vis own cultivation), rather than access to non-agricultural activities, the evidence nevertheless suggests that diversification into this growing sector provides both an important complement to the budgets of the poor, and possibly a self-insurance mechanism against negative shocks. Despite the substantial heterogeneity of the sector, two general findings are robust: returns to education are comparatively high; and location in relation to urban areas is an important determinant of both employment and earnings in rural non-agricultural activities.

The poverty reduction strategy of the government of Brazil: a rapid appraisal

This paper provides an overview of both the current structure of poverty in Brazil through a detailed poverty profile and of the aggregate dynamics of poverty in the last two decades. We then assess a number of government policies and programs which are either specifically designed to reduce poverty or have a direct bearing on current or future social welfare. A brief discussion of the Comunidade Solidária Programme is followed by an analysis of the coverage and targeting performance of mainstream programs in the areas of education, health, social security and other transfers. Our main findings are that a fifth of the Brazilian population live in indigence, and that this does not represent a substantial improvement over the situation two decades ago. A share of the blame for this must be borne by the highly regressive pattern of incidence of ‘social expenditures’ which are, on the whole, disproportionately appropriated by the middle-classes and the rich.

Semiclassical Effects Induced by Aharonov-Bohm Interaction Between a Cosmic String and a Scalar Field

In the context of the vacuum polarization effect, we consider the backreaction of the energy-momentum tensor of a charged scalar field on the background metric of a cosmic string carrying a magnetic flux $\Phi$. Working within the semiclassical approach to the Einstein eqs. we find the first-order (in $\hbar$) metric associated to the magnetic flux cosmic string. We show that the contribution to the vacuum polarization effect coming from the Aharonov-Bohm interaction is larger than the one coming from the non-trivial gravitational interaction.Comment: 13 pages, no figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Letters

Transparent Replication Using Metaprogramming in Cyan

Replication can be used to increase the availability of a service by creating many operational copies of its data called replicas. Active replication is a form of replication that has strong consistency semantics, easier to reason about and program. However, creating replicated services using active replication still demands from the programmer the knowledge of subtleties of the replication mechanism. In this paper we show how to use the metaprogramming infrastructure of the Cyan language to shield the application programmer from these details, allowing easier creation of fault-tolerant replicated applications through simple annotations.Comment: 8 page