Methodical approach to the estimation of possible energy production by wind and solar power plants using weather station data

The expediency of using several sources of information on climate factors for estimating the potential of wind and solar energy is substantiated. Specific features of the methodology and developed software for estimating the generation of energy by wind power plants based on weather stations open access data are considered. The possibility of taking into account the results of aerodynamic modeling of the flow of the terrain by the wind flow is realized. The methodology is implemented in the form of a computer program called Wind-MCA. It includes a module for analyzing wind power potential, a module for analyzing wind turbines, an economic analysis module, and a multi-criteria analysis module. Specific features of the methodology and developed software for estimating the generation of energy by solar power plants based on data on the transparency of the atmosphere, temperature and cloudiness are considered. The technique is implemented in the form of a computer program called Sun-MCA. The estimation of the wind energy and solar energy potential of several settlements in the central zone of the Baikal region is carried out taking into account the climate change in the region

An analysis of wind and solar power variability to assess its implications for power grid

The paper discusses the problem of parallel operation of wind and solar power plants with the power system associated with the influence of power fluctuations on the power quality and stability. A brief assessment of the prospects for the commissioning of the wind and solar power plants in Russia and a description of the associated negative impacts on the power system is given. A methodology for assessing the possible energy production of wind and solar power plants using raw data from weather stations is presented. Based on the methodology, an assessment of some regions of Russia in relation to the variability of wind speed and cloudiness is made. The wind power duration curves are given. An analysis of possible deviations of solar power under the influence of cloudiness is carried out. The effect of geographical aggregation of wind or solar power output to increase the guaranteed power generation and reduce the negative impact on the stability of the energy system is shown

Multi-criteria placement and capacity selection of solar power plants in the “Baikal-Khövsgöl” Cross-Border Recreation Area

The problem of power supply to remote consumers in the “Baikal-Khövsgöl” Cross-Border Recreation Area, associated with the high length and low reliability of power lines is discussed. The assessment of the modes of the power distribution grid showed that the introduction of new consumers in this territory will lead to unacceptable voltage deviations, even taking into account the installation of reactive power compensating devices. Since the area under consideration has a high solar energy potential, it is advisable to use distributed solar generation. The choice of locations and capacities of solar power plants is a multi-criteria optimization problem. Four criteria are proposed: total voltage deviation, total active power losses, reliability and capital costs for construction. An algorithm for multi-criteria optimizationis developed and implemented as a program in the MATLAB, which consists in sequential verification of the feasibility of installing additional power of solar power plants at the consumers of each of the substations under consideration. For each variant, the electric grid mode is assessed using the Power system analysis toolbox program. Solutions for the choice of locations and capacities of solar power plants are obtained, providing high scores by criteria in accordance with the given criteria importance coefficients

Two-step procedure for multi-criteria choice of generating-capacity structure in remote areas

The paper dwells upon the problem of multi-criteria choice of ways to develop generating capacities to supply power to remote consumers. We herein propose a two-step multi-criteria analysis method: choosing promising power-generation technology first, and then specifying the generating-capacity structure. The paper describes the structure of the proposed multi-criteria methods: the interval TOPSIS method for Step 1; for Step 2, an upgraded analytic hierarchy process based on identifying the structure of the decision maker’s preferences. We demonstrate the use of this method with evidence from the Penzhinsky District, Kamchatka Krai. Thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, diesel power plants, as well as solar and wind power are analyzed as power sources. Step 1 includes: analyzing the potential power-supply loads in a specific area; formulating alternative power-generation technology; formulating goals and criteria; criterion-based evaluation of alternative options using objective and subjective models; multi-criteria evaluation of alternatives; analyzing the sensitivity of results and the selection of promising technology. Step 2 includes: formulating goals and criteria on the basis of the selected power-generation technologies; formulating the available alternatives; criterion-based evaluation of alternatives; multi-criteria evaluation and final decision-making

Decision Making Support for Selecting Structure of Generating Capacities at Development of Local Power Supply Systems

This paper considers the problem of multi-criteria option selection for the purpose of developing generating capacities for local power supply systems. The authors suggest a 2-stage method of multi-criteria analysis. At the 1st stage one conducts a multi-criteria selection of the most prospective power generation technology. At the 2nd stage one conducts a multi-criteria assessment of options for power station capacity ratio on the basis of the selected efficient technology of power generation. At the first stage the authors suggest a modified method of hierarchy analysis allowing for the decrease in the number of requests to a decision-maker (DM). At the second stage the authors use the modified method TOPSIS with the application of value functions for calculating non-linear change of the DM preferences in relation to the assessment of options by the criteria

Choice of fuel for heat power plants in areas of new development taking into account the uncertainty factor

Актуальность исследования обусловлена трансформацией методологии обоснования развития энергетики от централизованного государственного планирования к новой парадигме многостороннего процесса принятия решений и создания механизмов их реализации в условиях многокритериальности, множественности несовпадающих интересов, неопределенности исходной информации и условий дальнейшего развития. Новые условия обоснования решений исследуются в разрезе строительства тепловых электростанций в удаленных районах нового освоения, где в качестве топлива рассматриваются местные энергоресурсы. Выбор топлива определяет экономические и технические показатели электростанций, их экологические и социальные воздействия. Для обоснования выбора топлива тепловых электростанций с позиций многочисленных критериев в условиях неопределенности исходной информации и будущих условий развития необходимо создание новых методических подходов. Цель: предложить методику многокритериального выбора топлива тепловой электростанции в районах нового освоения с учетом фактора неопределенности. Объекты: месторождения органического топлива в удаленных районах нового освоения. Методы: мультипликативный метод анализа иерархий, метод многокритериальной теории полезности, методы интервального анализа, методы теории нечетких множеств. Результаты. Проведен обзор современных методических подходов в задачах обоснования выбора топлива для электростанций. Предложена модификация метода мультипликативного анализа иерархий, которая позволяет учесть неопределенность исходной информации и неоднозначность предпочтений лица, принимающего решения, а также существенно снизить количество запросов информации. На основе модифицированного метода разработана методика многокритериального выбора топлива для тепловых электростанций в районах нового освоения. Ее применение рассмотрено на проблеме выбора угля в трех пунктах перспективного размещения тепловой электростанции в Омсукчанском и Северо-Эвенском районах Магаданской области. В качестве критериев сравнения альтернатив используются: стоимость топлива, ущерб от выброса загрязняющих веществ при сжигании топлива, обеспеченность запасами, условия освоения и добычи, воздействие выбросов при сжигании топлива на здоровье населения, обеспечение занятости местного населения.The relevance of the research is caused by the transformation of the methodology for substantiating the development of energy from centralized state planning to a new paradigm for multilateral decision-making and the creation of mechanisms for their implementation in terms of multi-criteria, multiplicity of conflicting interests, uncertainty of initial information and conditions for further development. New conditions for substantiating the decisions are considered in the context of the construction of thermal power plants in remote areas of new development, where local energy resources are considered as fuel. The choice of fuel determines the economic and technical indicators of power plants, their environmental and social impacts. In order to justify the choice of fuel for thermal power plants from the point of view of numerous criteria in the conditions of uncertainty of initial information and future development conditions, it is necessary to create new methodological approaches. The main aim of the research is to propose a methodology of multi-criteria fuel selection for a thermal power plant in the areas of new development taking into account the uncertainty factor. Objects: organic fuel deposits in remote areas of new development. Methods: multiplicative method of the analytic hierarchy process, method of multi-criteria utility theory, methods of interval analysis, methods of fuzzy set theory. Results. The author has carried out the review of modern methodological approaches in the problems of substantiation of the choice of fuel for power plants and proposed the modification of the method of the analytic hierarchy process. It allows taking into account the uncertainty of the source information and the ambiguity of preferences of decision makers, as well as significantly reducing the number of requests for information. On the basis of the modified method, the author developed the technique of multi-criteria selection of fuel for thermal power plants in the areas of new development. Its application is considered on the problem of coal selection in three points of perspective siting of thermal power plant in Omsukchansky and Severo-Evensky districts of Magadan region. The criteria used to compare the alternatives are: fuel cost, pollutant emissions from fuel combustion, fuel reserves, development and production conditions, the impact of fuel combustion emissions on the health of the population, employment of the local population

Siting and sizing of wind farms taking into account stochastic nature of generation

The article deals with the problem of the negative impact of wind farms stochastic generation on power grid. One of the ways to reduce the stochasticity of the wind farms generation is their geographically distributed siting. A technique for sizing and distributed siting of wind farms from the standpoint of the influence on the variability of the total generated power is proposed. Modeling of wind power generation with hourly detailing is carried out using the developed Wind-MCA software based on data from archives of long-term observations of ground-based weather stations. The optimal distribution of wind turbines in potential locations is based on a genetic algorithm. The objective function is the coefficient of variation of the power generated by all wind farms in the sites under consideration, depending on the number of wind turbines in their composition. The genetic algorithm is implemented using the built-in MATLAB function. The proposed technique is applied to assess the capacity options and sites for wind farms in the Zabaykalsky Krai. The solution providing the minimum value of the coefficient of variation of the wind farms generated power and high value of the wind farms capacity utilization factor has been obtained

Flow Profile Estimating in production wells based on chemical composition of fluids (an example on Volga-Ural Petroleum and Gas Province)

Current problems in mature oil fields are high water cut and flow profile estimating of oil and associated brines from different layers. To establish the flow profile in production wells, geophysical research (Production Logging) is traditionally used by lowering special equipment into the well. Production Logging requires production stops and labor costs. Geochemical methods (Production Geochemistry) are used as an alternative solution: sampling is simple and efficient, which makes it possible to cover all the interesting area. Moreover, sampling does not require stopping the well. The geochemical method uses individual indicators of the composition of formation fluids produced from different perforation intervals. In this work, geochemical studies were carried out using wellhead samples from more than 100 wells, with single perforation for carbonate and terrigenous reservoirs. Some wells have joint exploitation of these formations. An automated algorithm was used to identify the distinctive characteristics of each formation based on the composition of the produced brines and oils. Data on the chemical composition of fluids from different development objects made it possible to determine the flow profiles in wells with joint production. Based on the results of the studies, the Devonian reservoir of the field under consideration is divided into 2 parts – northern and southern, which differ in the chemical composition of formation fluids. The same separation of the deposits into 2 parts is noted by field development analysis: over the past 50 years, the main production of oil and associated brines has been concentrated in the southern part of the deposit, confined to the fault, where the active work of the aquifer is assumed. It is recommended to use the obtained data for history matching of the reservoir simulation model

Potential for improving the efficiency of carbonate oil deposits waterflooding with the use of controlled salinity technology (Smart water) at fields of Tatarstan Republic

The article provides an overview of ion-modified waterflooding technology, also known as low salinity, controlled salinity, or Smart water. This technology is currently considered one of the most promising approaches in the development of oil deposits in carbonate reservoirs due to its economic efficiency and environmental safety. The article discusses the main mechanisms and processes underlying ion-modified waterflooding and presents the results of laboratory studies conducted on core samples from foreign oil deposits. It includes an analysis of several studies, including contact angle measurements and core flooding experiments on core samples from oil deposits in carbonate reservoirs on the eastern side of the Melekess depression in the Republic of Tatarstan. It is important to note that the Vereyian deposits explored in this article are not a typical example of test objects for ion-modified water injection. This is because they are characterized by a low reservoir temperature of 23 °C, which suggests that the efficiency of the technology would likely be lower compared to studies conducted abroad, where reservoir temperatures were significantly higher. For example, Darvish Sarvestani et al. studied reservoir conditions at 90 °C, Yousef et al. – reservoir temperature of 100 °C, and Austad et al. examined the Ekofisk field at 130 °C and the Volhall field at 90 °C in Norway. However, as several studies have indicated, prolonged contact between rock samples and ion-modified water contributes to significant hydrophilization of the rock surface, as confirmed by contact angle measurements. The contact angle decreases from approximately 138.3° to 53.45° after exposure to ion-modified water. Additionally, the core flooding experiment demonstrated a slight increase in the oil displacement coefficient, reaching 9.2%. These findings suggest the potential for enhanced oil recovery by injecting Smart water into the Vereyian sediments, although further research is required to confirm the underlying mechanism

Technical and economic model of an autonomous complex for production of «green» hydrogen and its testing on the example of Mongolia and Japan

Актуальность. Представлена технико-экономическая модель комплекса по производству сжиженного водорода с энергоснабжением исключительно от возобновляемых источников энергии. Модель позволяет проводить сравнение технико-экономических показателей производства «зелёного» сжиженного водорода в различных локациях, учитывая их природно-климатические и технико-экономические условия. Особенностью предлагаемой модели является рассмотрение основных технологических процессов производства, преобразования и хранения водорода с учетом годового почасового профиля возможной генерации энергии возобновляемыми источниками и графика отгрузки сжиженного водорода в качестве товарной продукции. Использование модели актуально на стадии предпроектных исследований по созданию водородных производств в регионах, имеющих высокий потенциал ВИЭ, но при этом удаленных от электроэнергетической инфраструктуры; позволит повысить обоснованность оценок для принятия инвестиционных решений. Цель: разработать технико-экономическую модель такого комплекса и осуществить проверку её работоспособности на примере оценки нормированной стоимости производства «зелёного» сжиженного водорода для выбранных локаций в Монголии и Японии. Объекты: автономный комплекс по производству «зелёного» водорода. Методы. Основу модели составляет оптимизационная задача математического программирования, решение которой позволяет определить уровень и структуру затрат на производство сжиженного водорода с использованием солнечной и ветровой энергии. Результаты. Для проверки работоспособности модели были получены сравнительные оценки нормированной стоимости производства товарной продукции - 10 тыс. т/год сжиженного «зелёного» водорода для локаций в Монголии (восточное побережье оз. Хубсугул) и Японии (прибрежные районы префектуры Ямагата), составляющие соответственно 10,8 и 13,4 $/кг.The relevance. The paper presents a technical and economic model of a liquefied hydrogen production complex supplied only by renewable energy. The model compares technical and economic indicators of «green» liquefied hydrogen production in different locations subject to their climate, technical and economic conditions. The unique characteristic of the proposed model is that it considers the main technological processes for hydrogen production, conversion and storage, taking into account the annual hourly profile of possible renewable energy generation and shipping schedule of liquefied hydrogen as a commercial output. Employing the model will be relevant at the stage of pre-feasibility studies devoted to the creation of hydrogen energy productions in regions with high renewable energy potentials and remote from power infrastructure and allow enhancing reasonableness of estimations when taking investment decisions. The main aim: to develop a technical and economic model of such a complex and to test it by estimating the levelized cost of «green» liquid hydrogen for selected locations in Mongolia and Japan. Object: the autonomous complex for production of «green» hydrogen. Methods. The model is based on an optimization problem that determines the level and structure of costs born to produce liquefied hydrogen using solar and wind energy. Results. For verification of the model the comparative estimations for production of 10000 tonnes per year of the liquefied «green» hydrogen were calculated. The costs for locations in Mongolia (east coast of Lake Hubsugul) and Japan (coastal areas of Yamagata Prefecture) amount to$10,8 per kg and $13,4 per kg, respectively