Long-term scenario analysis of a future zero-carbon electricity generation system in Japan based on an integrated model

The realization of a zero-carbon electricity system is of vital importance to a future zero-carbon energy system and society. Nuclear power and renewable energy are expected to contribute significantly to this in the future in Japan. Therefore, in the present study, their roles in future zero-carbon electricity system was examined using long-term scenario analysis from 2005 to 2100 based on an integrated analysis model. The analysis is conducted in three steps to (1) estimate electricity demand and load pattern based on lifestyle and industrial structure in the future using a bottom-up simulation sub-model; (2) plan the optimized power generation mix to satisfied obtained electrical demand and load subject to various constraints including natural resources, economic, environmental, geographic, natural conditions, etc. using an optimization sub-model (3) confirm the reliability of the obtained best mix power generation system by using an hour by hour simulation sub-model. The results give the schedule of nuclear and renewable energy development from 2005 to 2100 and show that they will contribute 60% and 40% respectively in terms of electricity production by 2100. Finally, the whole system is proven as technically feasible with the help of EV (Electric Vehicle) batteries and hydrogen for daily and seasonal electric storage respectively, operated based on smart control technologies

Green Fiscal Stimulus in Indonesia and Vietnam: A Reality Check of Two Emerging Economies

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused economic and social upheaval across countries. The global economy suffered its biggest slump in four decades while the decades of progress in poverty reduction are now in reverse. However, the pandemic presents a window of opportunity for a greener world. In contrast to fossil fuel, renewable energy showed resilience throughout the pandemic, where the demand and investment in this sector continued to increase. The opportunity for a post-COVID-19 green recovery also comes from billions of government fiscal measures in response to COVID-19. Using the case of two emerging economies, Indonesia and Vietnam, this paper investigates whether the stimulus plans align with a country’s sustainable energy and climate targets. This study finds that despite ambitious country targets for green energy transition, these countries may miss opportunities for a green future due to limited fiscal measures directed to green recovery. The pandemic has exacerbated public fiscal budgets that may further limit the capacity to fund green projects. Amidst the uncertainty and challenges brought by the pandemic, it is critical to balance between promoting economic recovery and achieving sustainable energy and climate targets. To this end, the authors suggest several policy recommendations to achieve these targets amid uncertainty brought by the COVID-19 pandemic for emerging economies

The ASEAN climate and energy paradox

This article carries out a multisectoral qualitative analysis (MSQA) and policy integration analysis of six sectors important for climate mitigation in Southeast Asia in order to assess the status of the climate-energy nexus in the region. It concludes that Southeast Asia will be heavily affected by climate change but the mitigation efforts of the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are incommensurate with the threat they face. Their nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement are modest, they have a low proportion of renewable energy in their energy mixes, a modest target for raising the share of renewable energy and they are not likely to reach this target. The ASEAN countries have also been slow to adopt electric vehicles and to accede to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), while continuing to burn their forests, channel subsidies to fossil fuels and invest in new coal power plants. If ASEAN accelerated decarbonization, it could seize business opportunities, secure its standing in the international political system and climate justice discussions, and increase its chances of reaching the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The Philippines: How to Leapfrog from a Complicated Renewable Energy Sector to an Attractive One

The Philippines set the target of increasing the share of renewable energy in its energy mix from 16.9% in 2019 to 26.9% by 2030. This ambitious target requires significant additional investment in renewable energy. It has been estimated that the Philippines could attract USD 20 billion in renewable energy investment through auctions between 2020 and 2030. To achieve this, the investment climate for renewables needs to be improved. Over the last few years, other ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand have been viewed as more attractive markets by foreign investors. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Philippines’ investment climate for renewable energy and help it join the regional race for investment: prioritise renewables in the energy governance system; enforce existing regulatory and fiscal policies; raise the targets and develop an investment roadmap; facilitate market entry for renewable energy investors; build capacity for renewable energy governance

Cambodia: Five Actions to Improve the Business Climate for Renewable Energy Investment

Cambodia has not attracted significant investment in renewable energy until mid-2020 and, unlike other ASEAN countries, has not set exact renewable energy targets. Despite this, the country is viewed as a model to learn from for other ASEAN countries implementing solar power auctions. In order to keep up this momentum and attract more investment, Cambodia needs to address a number of persistent gaps in its investment climate. We propose five actions that may have strong immediate benefits and make Cambodia’s business climate for renewable energy more attractive: prioritise renewables in the energy governance system; request support from IRENA for capacity building; adopt targets and develop a regulatory framework; enhance project bankability; improve market entry for foreign investors

Lao PDR: How to Attract More Investment in Small-Scale Renewable Energy?

Lao PDR adopted the Renewable Energy Development Strategy in 2011 and set a target of 30% small-scale renewables in the energy mix by 2025. The country relies heavily on large hydropower in electricity production and is an attractive investment destination for hydropower. At the same time, Lao PDR has also significant small-scale hydro and solar power potential. We propose five actions that can improve the investment climate in Lao PDR for small-scale hydropower, solar and wind energy: establish an autonomous government agency for renewables; join IRENA and build capacity for renewable energy governance; adopt a feed-in tariff and build a robust regulatory framework; develop a roadmap for small-scale renewable energy; facilitate market entry for investors

Vietnam: Six Ways to Keep Up the Renewable Energy Investment Success

Vietnam is one of the most attractive destinations for renewable energy investment in ASEAN. In 2018, the country attracted USD 5.2 billion. In 2019, the share of renewable energy in the energy mix was 9%, thus already exceeding the 7% target set for 2020. If Vietnam is to continue its success and compete globally for investment in renewable energy, it will need to further develop its investment climate. The competition is heating up in this area, and an increasing number of countries have similar conditions and frameworks for renewable energy investment. Therefore, every improvement may help boost a market’s relative attractiveness. We propose six actions that can further enhance the attractiveness of Vietnam’s renewable energy sector for investment from both domestic and international investors: prioritise renewable energy in the governance system; streamline the regulatory framework; facilitate market entry for investors; improve transparency and communication about the investment regime; improve grid expansion planning; join IRENA to further build the capacity for renewable energy governance

Brunei Darussalam: How to Build an Investment Climate for Renewable Energy?

Brunei Darussalam has yet to make major progress in renewable energy and become an attractive destination for investors. Only 0.05% of Brunei’s electricity came from renewable energy sources, while 99.95% was based on fossil fuels. In 2014, the country set a renewable energy target of 10% in the power generation mix by 2035. To reach the target, it needs to increase the share of renewables by 0.66% every year from 2020 to 2035. The country still needs to adopt a regulatory regime to scale up the development of renewable energy, particularly solar energy, which is more abundant than wind energy. We propose five actions to build the investment climate for renewable energy in Brunei Darussalam: prioritise renewable energy in the governance system; adopt and implement key legislation; mobilise domestic investors; improve market entry for foreign investors; join IRENA and expand capacity building

Thailand: Improving the Business Climate for Renewable Energy Investment

Thailand is among ASEAN’s renewable energy leaders. It attracted more than USD 10.7 billion of investment in renewable energy from 2006 to 2018. The country’s total installed capacity of renewable energy represented over 60% of the total capacity of ASEAN in 2019. Renewables accounted for 15% of its energy mix in 2018, and a target of 30% in 2036 was set. Despite this, during 2018–2019, Thailand experienced relative stagnation in terms of attracted investment. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Thailand’s investment climate for renewable energy in both the short and long term: set up a dedicated ministry for governing renewables; expand and improve the regulatory framework; capitalise on its peer-to-peer energy trading experience; simplify market entry for foreign investors; build capacity for renewable energy governance