Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance : a review

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.Series B, Biological Sciences, 372 (2017): 2016.0135, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0135.Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGCM) of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) Cooperative Agreement #DE-FC02-97ER62402, and the National Science Foundation

The climate of Myanmar: evidence for effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

We show evidence for the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on Myanmar's monsoonal hydroclimate using both instrumental and 20th century reanalysis data, and a tree-ring width chronology from Myanmar's central Dry Zone. The ‘regime shifts’ identified in the instrumental PDO for the past century are clearly evident in the Myanmar teak. The teak record and PDO index correlate most significantly and positively during December–May, at r = 0.41 (0.002, n = 109). We generated composite climate anomalies for southern Asia and adjacent ocean areas during negative and positive PDO phases and above/below average teak growth for the May–September wet monsoon season. They show that negative (positive) PDO phases correspond to dry (wet) conditions, due to reduced (enhanced) moisture flux into central Myanmar. Multitaper Method (MTM) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) spectral analyses reveal considerable multidecadal variability over the past several centuries of the teak chronology, consistent with the PDO

Southern hemisphere regional precipitation and climate variability : extremes trends and predictability

This PhD thesis investigates the relative importance of oceanic and atmospheric influences on extremes, long-term trends, and seasonal to interannual variability of precipitation for different regions in the Southern Hemisphere in observations, reanalysis data, and output from general circulation models (GCM). Examination of interannual rainfall extremes over southwest Western Australia (SWWA) reveals a characteristic dipole pattern of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). This coincides with a large-scale reorganization of the wind field over the tropical/subtropical Indian Ocean changing SSTA, via anomalous Ekman transport in the tropical Indian Ocean and via anomalous air-sea heat fluxes in the subtropics, and altering moisture advection onto SWWA. The potential impact of these Indian Ocean SSTA in driving modulations of mid-latitude precipitation across southern and western regions of Australia is assessed in atmospheric GCM simulations. The SSTA give rise to changes in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, meridional thickness gradient, subtropical jet, thermal wind, and baroclinicity over southern regions of Australia, thus modulating precipitation. In addition, links between anomalous wet conditions over East Africa and these characteristic Indian Ocean SSTA are explored during the "short rain" season in October-November. Interannual extremes m New Zealand rainfall and their modulation by modes of Southern Hemisphere climate variability, namely the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are investigated. Late twentieth Century trends in New Zealand precipitation are examined for the period 19792006 to quantify the relative impact of recent changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation related to the SAM and ENSO. Increasingly drier conditions over much of New Zealand can be partially explained by the SAM and ENSO. Cool season rainfall variability in southeastern Australia is investigated via a classification and characterization of the predominant types of synoptic systems occurring in the region, focusing on frontal and cutoff low systems. Two definitions of the autumn break developed for northwestern Victoria are employed to produce a synoptic climatology of the break phenomenon. Trends in characteristics of the autumn break indicate that the most recent drought in southeastern Australia is comparable in severity with the two major droughts in the twentieth Century

The role of atmospheric fronts in austral winter precipitation changes across Australia

© The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Lawrence, L., Parfitt, R., & Ummenhofer, C. C. The role of atmospheric fronts in austral winter precipitation changes across Australia. Atmospheric Science Letters, 23(10), (2022): e1117, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1117.Over the past few decades, Southeast Australia has experienced severe regional climatic events and some of the most extreme droughts on record, linked in part to influences from both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In this article, the extent to which austral winter rainfall anomalies, in years leading into co-occurring ENSO and IOD events, are communicated specifically through variations in atmospheric fronts is quantified. The most extreme wet (dry) conditions occur in winters characterized by sea surface temperature anomaly patterns exhibiting features of La Niña-Negative IOD (El Niño-Positive IOD). It is found that most of these precipitation anomalies are related to changes in the precipitation associated with the passing of atmospheric fronts specifically. Although there is some suggestion that there are accompanying changes in the frequency of atmospheric fronts, the response appears to be dominated by changes in the amount of precipitation per individual atmospheric front. In addition, the distribution in the dynamic strength of individual atmospheric fronts remains relatively unchanged.Rhys Parfitt would like to gratefully acknowledge NSF OCE award number 2023585 and Caroline C. Ummenhofer support from the James E. and Barbara V. Moltz Fellowship for Climate-Related Research at WHOI

Intraseasonal rainfall variability in the Bay of Bengal during the Summer Monsoon: coupling with the ocean and modulation by the Indian Ocean Dipole

The Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall exhibits pronounced intraseasonal variability in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). This study examines the intraseasonal rainfall variability with foci on the coupling with sea surface temperatures (SST) and its interannual modulation. The lagged composite analysis reveals that, in the northern BoB, SST warming leads the onset of intraseasonal rainfall by 5 days. Latent heat flux is reduced before the rain event but is greatly amplified during the rainfall maxima. Further analysis reveals that this intraseasonal rainfall-SST relationship through latent heating is strengthened in negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years when the bay-wide local SST is anomalously warm. Latent heat flux is further increased during the intraseasonal rainfall maxima leading to strengthened rainfall variability. The moisture budget analysis shows this is primarily due to stronger low-level moisture convergence in negative IOD years. The results provide important predictive information on the monsoon rainfall and its active/break cycles

Multi-scale drought and ocean–atmosphere variability in monsoon Asia

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Research Letters 10 (2015): 074010, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/074010.Spatially extensive and persistent drought episodes have repeatedly influenced human history, including the 'Strange Parallels' drought event in monsoon Asia during the mid-18th century. Here we explore the dynamics of sustained monsoon failure using observed and tree-ring reconstructed drought patterns and a 1300-year pre-industrial community earth system model control run. Both modern observational and climate model drought patterns during years with extremely weakened South Asian monsoon resemble those reconstructed for the Strange Parallels drought. Model analysis reveals that this pattern arises during boreal spring over Southeast Asia, with decreased precipitation and moisture flux, while related summertime climate anomalies are confined to the Indian subcontinent. Years with simulated South Asian drying exhibit canonical El Niño conditions over the Pacific and associated shifts in the Walker circulation. In contrast, multi-year drought periods, resembling those sustained during the Strange Parallels drought, feature anomalous Pacific warming around the dateline, typical of El Niño Modoki events.This work was performed with support and funding from the Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Sciences Program (NSF AGS-1120459), WHOI Academic Programs Office Funds, and NSF AGS-1338734, AGS-1203704, and AGS-1304245

The role of the subtropical North Atlantic water cycle in recent US extreme precipitation events

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 50 (2018): 1291–1305, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3685-y.The role of the oceanic water cycle in the record-breaking 2015 warm-season precipitation in the US is analyzed. The extreme precipitation started in the Southern US in the spring and propagated northward to the Midwest and the Great Lakes in the summer of 2015. This seasonal evolution of precipitation anomalies represents a typical mode of variability of US warm-season precipitation. Analysis of the atmospheric moisture flux suggests that such a rainfall mode is associated with moisture export from the subtropical North Atlantic. In the spring, excessive precipitation in the Southern US is attributable to increased moisture flux from the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic. The North Atlantic moisture flux interacts with local soil moisture which enables the US Midwest to draw more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the summer. Further analysis shows that the relationship between the rainfall mode and the North Atlantic water cycle has become more significant in recent decades, indicating an increased likelihood of extremes like the 2015 case. Indeed, two record-high warm-season precipitation events, the 1993 and 2008 cases, both occurred in the more recent decades of the 66 year analysis period. The export of water from the North Atlantic leaves a marked surface salinity signature. The salinity signature appeared in the spring preceding all three extreme precipitation events analyzed in this study, i.e. a saltier-than-normal subtropical North Atlantic in spring followed by extreme Midwest precipitation in summer. Compared to the various sea surface temperature anomaly patterns among the 1993, 2008, and 2015 cases, the spatial distribution of salinity anomalies was much more consistent during these extreme flood years. Thus, our study suggests that preseason salinity patterns can be used for improved seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation in the Midwest.LL is supported by the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at WHOI, with funding provided by the Oceans and Climate Change Institute. RWS is supported by NASA Grants NNX12AF59G and NNX14AH38G, and NSF Grant OCE-1129646. CCU is supported by NSF Grant AGS-1355339

North Atlantic natural variability modulates emergence of widespread Greenland melt in a warming climate

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 45 (2018): 9171-9178, doi:10.1029/2018GL079682.Record‐breaking melt over Greenland in recent decades is linked not only to climate change but also to natural variability, including persistent atmospheric high‐pressure conditions in the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and warm North Atlantic Ocean temperatures during the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. However, the relative importance of natural variability for Greenland melt under varying degrees of greenhouse forcing is still unclear. Using reanalysis data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation consistently promote heightened summer melt under various forcing conditions. Moreover, timing of widespread 21st century Greenland melt varies considerably between ensemble members due to different phasing of these modes of natural variability. These results indicate the importance of natural modes of variability across a range of external forcing conditions for interannual melt variability and the emergence of widespread Greenland melt.U.S. National Science Foundation Grant Number: ANS‐1736738; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Summer Student Fellow program Grant Number: AGS‐13553392019-03-1

Relative contributions of heat flux and wind stress on the spatiotemporal upper-ocean variability in the tropical Indian Ocean

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Yuan, X., Ummenhofer, C. C., Seo, H., & Su, Z. Relative contributions of heat flux and wind stress on the spatiotemporal upper-ocean variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Environmental Research Letters, 15(8), (2020): 084047, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab9f7f.High-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM) simulations are employed to investigate interannual variability of the upper-ocean temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean (20°S–20°N). The seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the upper-ocean temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean in the forced ocean simulation are in good agreement with available observation and reanalysis products. Two further sensitivity OGCM simulations are used to separate the relative contributions of heat flux and wind stress. The comparison of the model simulations reveals the depth-dependent influences of heat flux and wind stress on the ocean temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Generally, heat flux dominates the temperature variability in the top 30 m, while wind stress contributes most strongly to the subsurface temperature variability below 30 m. This implies that a transition depth should exist at each location, where the dominant control of the ocean temperature variability switched from heat flux to wind stress. We define the depth of this transition point as the 'crossing depth' and make use of this concept to better understand the depth-dependent impacts of the heat flux and wind stress on the upper-ocean temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. The crossing depth tends to be shallower in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (20°S-EQ), including the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR) and the eastern part of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), suggesting the dominance of forcing due to wind stress and the resulting ocean dynamical processes in the temperature variability in those regions. The crossing depth also shows prominent seasonal variability in the southern tropical Indian Ocean. In the SCTR, the variability of the subsurface temperature forced by the wind stress dominates largely in boreal winter and spring, resulting in the shallow crossing depth in these seasons. In contrast, the intensified subsurface temperature variability with shallow crossing depth in the eastern part of the IOD is seen during boreal autumn. Overall, our results suggest that the two regions within the tropical Indian Ocean, the SCTR and the eastern part of the IOD, are the primary locations where the ocean dynamics due to wind-stress forcing control the upper-ocean temperature variability.This research was supported by a Research Fellowship by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation to CCU. HS is grateful for support by ONR (N00014-17-1-2398) and NOAA (NA17OAR4310255)

Implications of North Atlantic sea surface salinity for summer precipitation over the U.S. Midwest : mechanisms and predictive value

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 29 (2016): 3143-3159, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0520.1.Moisture originating from the subtropical North Atlantic feeds precipitation throughout the Western Hemisphere. This ocean-to-land moisture transport leaves its imprint on sea surface salinity (SSS), enabling SSS over the subtropical oceans to be used as an indicator of terrestrial precipitation. This study demonstrates that springtime SSS over the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic significantly correlates with summertime precipitation over the U.S. Midwest. The linkage between springtime SSS and the Midwest summer precipitation is established through ocean-to-land moisture transport followed by a soil moisture feedback over the southern United States. In the spring, high SSS over the northwestern subtropical Atlantic coincides with a local increase in moisture flux divergence. The moisture flux is then directed toward and converges over the southern United States, which experiences increased precipitation and soil moisture. The increased soil moisture influences the regional water cycle both thermodynamically and dynamically, leading to excessive summer precipitation in the Midwest. Thermodynamically, the increased soil moisture tends to moisten the lower troposphere and enhances the meridional humidity gradient north of 36°N. Thus, more moisture will be transported and converged into the Midwest by the climatological low-level wind. Dynamically, the increases in soil moisture over the southern United States enhance the west–east soil moisture gradient eastward of the Rocky Mountains, which can help to intensify the Great Plains low-level jet in the summer, converging more moisture into the Midwest. Owing to these robust physical linkages, the springtime SSS outweighs the leading SST modes in predicting the Midwest summer precipitation and significantly improves rainfall prediction in this region.L. L. is supported by the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), with funding provided by the Ocean and Climate Change Institute (OCCI). R. W. S. is supported by NASA Grant NNX12AF59G S03 and NSF Grant OCE-1129646. C. C. U. is supported by NSF Grant AGS-1355339. K. B. K. is supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the James E. and Barbara V. Moltz Fellowship administered by the WHOI OCCI.2016-10-1