What happens when the market shifts to China? The Gabon timber and Thai cassava value chains

Rapid economic growth in China has boosted its demand for commodities. At the same time, many commodity sectors have experienced declining demand from high income northern economies. This paper examines two hypotheses of the consequences of this shift in final markets for the organization of global value chains in general, and for the role played in them by southern producers in particular. The first is that there will be a decline in the importance of standards in global value chains. The second is that there will be increasing constraints in the ability of low-income producers to upgrade to higher value niches in their chains. Detailed case studies of the Thai cassava industry and the Gabon timber sector confirm both these hypotheses. It remains to be seen how widespread these trends are across other sectors

What happens when the market shifts to China ? the Gabon timber and Thai cassava value chains

Rapid economic growth in China has boosted its demand for commodities. At the same time, many commodity sectors have experienced declining demand from high-income northern economies. This paper examines two hypotheses of the consequences of this shift in final markets for the organization of global value chains in general, and for the role played in them by southern producers in particular. The first is that there will be a decline in the importance of standards in global value chains. The second is that there will be increasing constraints in the ability of low-income producers to upgrade to higher value niches in their chains. Detailed case studies of the Thai cassava industry and the Gabon timber sector confirm both these hypotheses. It remains to be seen how widespread these trends are across other sectors.Environmental Economics&Policies,Food&Beverage Industry,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies

What happens in global value chains when the markey shifts from the north to the south?

This paper charts the evolution of financial and economic crisis in the global economy and argues that the likely outcome will be sustained growth in the two very large Asian Driver economies of China and India and stagnation in the historically dominant northern economies. Given the nature of demand in low income southern economies, it is likely to be reflected in sustained demand for commodities, with other southern economy producers in global value chains being forced into lower levels of value added. Standards are likely to be of considerably reduced significance in value chains feeding into China and India. These issues are considered in the light of evidence drawn from the experience of Thai exporters of cassava, and Gabonese exporters of timber

The tropical timber industry in Gabon: a forward linkages approach to industrialisation

The breadth and depth of forward linkages in the tropical timber industry of Gabon is a result of three inter-acting drivers: the nature of final markets, ownership of production, and sector-specific policy. The Forestry Code set explicit domestic processing targets built on the trajectory of French processors. Still, while this is theoretically in line with European market demands for wood products, the forced beneficiation resulted in Chinese, Malaysian, and Gabonese producers, whose prime activity is the exploitation of logs for processing industries in China, to limit their participation in forward linkages to the sawnwood sub-sector, characterised by low entry barriers and negative producer margins. Gabon's comparative advantage lies in the exploitation of its natural resource tropical timber for export markets. Logging is also a 'superior' technology allowing the appropriation of resource rents. These are largely diluted in processing due to production cost penalties such as high reservation wages, inadequate infrastructure, lack of skills, and the political economy of Gabon. The conflict between the envisaged forward linkages approach to industrialisation (in light of falling oil reserves), industry actors' market focuses, motivations, and capabilities, as well as conclusions drawn about comparative advantages and linkage-blockages, has significant consequences for industrial development

The tropical timber industry in Gabon: a forward linkages approach to industrialisation

The breadth and depth of forward linkages in the tropical timber industry of Gabon is a result of three inter-acting drivers: the nature of final markets, ownership of production, and sector-specific policy. The Forestry Code set explicit domestic processing targets built on the trajectory of French processors. Still, while this is theoretically in line with European market demands for wood products, the forced beneficiation resulted in Chinese, Malaysian, and Gabonese producers, whose prime activity is the exploitation of logs for processing industries in China, to limit their participation in forward linkages to the sawnwood sub-sector, characterised by low entry barriers and negative producer margins. Gabon's comparative advantage lies in the exploitation of its natural resource tropical timber for export markets. Logging is also a 'superior' technology allowing the appropriation of resource rents. These are largely diluted in processing due to production cost penalties such as high reservation wages, inadequate infrastructure, lack of skills, and the political economy of Gabon. The conflict between the envisaged forward linkages approach to industrialisation (in light of falling oil reserves), industry actors' market focuses, motivations, and capabilities, as well as conclusions drawn about comparative advantages and linkage-blockages, has significant consequences for industrial development

Thinking big for smallholder agriculture: realizing agricultural potentials in changing times

Recent advances in approaches to quantitative strategic foresight have enabled new insights into understanding potential futures of the agriculture sector. Quantitative foresight approaches facilitate understanding of different plausible scenarios, especially as related to both endogenous and exogenous factors (e.g., global markets and climate change). These approaches tend to be macroeconomic in nature and resolve trends relative to coarse-grained drivers. In order translate these outputs into strategies that realistically benefit producers across scale, finer resolution and context specific understanding is needed. This paper offers perspective on how foresight analysis can be combined with more pointed assessment of the specific policies, institutions and market requirements needed create more inclusive agricultural investment strategies

Safety of a new extensively hydrolysed formula in children with cow's milk protein allergy: a double blind crossover study

BACKGROUND: Formulae for infants with cow's milk protein allergy (CMA) should be based on extensively hydrolysed protein. 'Extensively' however is not strictly defined. Differences in molecular weight and peptide chain length may affect its clinical outcome. We studied the safety of a new extensively hydrolysed casein based formula (Frisolac Allergycare(®): FAC) for children with IgE mediated CMA. METHODS: Thirty children, aged 1.5 – 14.8 years old (median 4.9 years) with persistent CMA were enrolled in this double-blind reference product (Nutramigen(®): NUT) controlled crossover study. All had positive skin prick tests (SPT) and IgE mediated allergy, showing immediate reactions after ingestion of small amounts of milk. Twenty-five children also had positive radio allergen sorbent tests (RAST) to cow's milk. Formulae provided consisted of 80% elementary formula in combination with 20% reference or test product. Crossover periods lasted for two weeks. From both products molecular weight (MALDI-TOF method and HPLC) and peptide chain length distribution (adapted Edman degradation) were determined. RESULTS: Maximum molecular weights of NUT and FAC are 2.1 and 2.56 kDa, respectively. The contribution of free amino acids and small peptides <0.5 kDa is 46% for FAC and 53% for NUT. About 50% of the protein fraction of both products consists of peptides longer than four amino acids. Three children did not complete the study. The other children all tolerated FAC very well; no adverse reactions were reported. CONCLUSIONS: The new extensively hydrolysed casein-based formula (FAC) can safely be used in children with IgE mediated cow's milk allergy

Determinants of Physical Activity among Patients with Colorectal Cancer: From Diagnosis to 5 Years after Diagnosis

Introduction  Physical activity (PA) is associated with higher quality of life and probably better prognosis among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This study focuses on determinants of PA among CRC patients from diagnosis until 5 yr postdiagnosis. Methods  Sociodemographic and disease-related factors of participants of two large CRC cohort studies were combined. Moderate-to-vigorous PA during sport and leisure time (MVPA-SL) was measured at diagnosis (T0) and 6, 12, 24, and 60 months (T6 to T60) postdiagnosis, using the SQUASH questionnaire. Mixed-effects models were performed to identify sociodemographic and disease-related determinants of MVPA-SL, separately for stage I–III colon (CC), stage I–III rectal cancer (RC), and stage IV CRC (T0 and T6 only). Associations were defined as consistently present when significant at ≥4 timepoints for the stage I–III subsets. MVPA-SL levels were compared with an age- and sex-matched sample of the general Dutch population. Results  In total, 2905 CC, 1459 RC and 436 stage IV CRC patients were included. Patients with higher fatigue scores, and women compared with men had consistently lower MVPA-SL levels over time, regardless of tumor type and stage. At T6, having a stoma was significantly associated with lower MVPA-SL among stage I-III RC patients. Systemic therapy and radiotherapy were not significantly associated with MVPA-SL changes at T6. Compared with the general population, MVPA-SL levels of CRC patients were lower at all timepoints, most notably at T6. Conclusions  Female sex and higher fatigue scores were consistent determinants of lower MVPA-SL levels among all CRC patients, and MVPA-SL levels were lowest at 6 months postdiagnosis. Our results can inform the design of intervention studies aimed at improving PA, and guide healthcare professionals in optimizing individualized support

Severe Pediatric COVID-19 and Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children from Wild-type to Population Immunity: A Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study with Real-time Reporting

Background: SARS-CoV-2 variant evolution and increasing immunity altered the impact of pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection. Public health decision-making relies on accurate and timely reporting of clinical data. Methods: This international hospital-based multicenter, prospective cohort study with real-time reporting was active from March 2020 to December 2022. We evaluated longitudinal incident rates and risk factors for disease severity. Results: We included 564 hospitalized children with acute COVID-19 (n = 375) or multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (n = 189) from the Netherlands, Curaçao and Surinam. In COVID-19, 134/375 patients (36%) needed supplemental oxygen therapy and 35 (9.3%) required intensive care treatment. Age above 12 years and preexisting pulmonary conditions were predictors for severe COVID-19. During omicron, hospitalized children had milder disease. During population immunity, the incidence rate of pediatric COVID-19 infection declined for older children but was stable for children below 1 year. The incidence rate of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children was highest during the delta wave and has decreased rapidly since omicron emerged. Real-time reporting of our data impacted national pediatric SARS-CoV-2 vaccination- and booster-policies. Conclusions: Our data supports the notion that similar to adults, prior immunity protects against severe sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infections in children. Real-time reporting of accurate and high-quality data is feasible and impacts clinical and public health decision-making. The reporting framework of our consortium is readily accessible for future SARS-CoV-2 waves and other emerging infections

The Prospective Dutch Colorectal Cancer (PLCRC) cohort: real-world data facilitating research and clinical care

Real-world data (RWD) sources are important to advance clinical oncology research and evaluate treatments in daily practice. Since 2013, the Prospective Dutch Colorectal Cancer (PLCRC) cohort, linked to the Netherlands Cancer Registry, serves as an infrastructure for scientific research collecting additional patient-reported outcomes (PRO) and biospecimens. Here we report on cohort developments and investigate to what extent PLCRC reflects the “real-world”. Clinical and demographic characteristics of PLCRC participants were compared with the general Dutch CRC population (n = 74,692, Dutch-ref). To study representativeness, standardized differences between PLCRC and Dutch-ref were calculated, and logistic regression models were evaluated on their ability to distinguish cohort participants from the Dutch-ref (AU-ROC 0.5 = preferred, implying participation independent of patient characteristics). Stratified analyses by stage and time-period (2013–2016 and 2017–Aug 2019) were performed to study the evolution towards RWD. In August 2019, 5744 patients were enrolled. Enrollment increased steeply, from 129 participants (1 hospital) in 2013 to 2136 (50 of 75 Dutch hospitals) in 2018. Low AU-ROC (0.65, 95% CI: 0.64–0.65) indicates limited ability to distinguish cohort participants from the Dutch-ref. Characteristics that remained imbalanced in the period 2017–Aug’19 compared with the Dutch-ref were age (65.0 years in PLCRC, 69.3 in the Dutch-ref) and tumor stage (40% stage-III in PLCRC, 30% in the Dutch-ref). PLCRC approaches to represent the Dutch CRC population and will ultimately meet the current demand for high-quality RWD. Efforts are ongoing to improve multidisciplinary recruitment which will further enhance PLCRC’s representativeness and its contribution to a learning healthcare system