Cliophysics: Socio-political Reliability Theory, Polity Duration and African Political (In)stabilities

Quantification of historical sociological processes have recently gained attention among theoreticians in the effort of providing a solid theoretical understanding of the behaviors and regularities present in sociopolitical dynamics. Here we present a reliability theory of polity processes with emphases on individual political dynamics of African countries. We found that the structural properties of polity failure rates successfully capture the risk of political vulnerability and instabilities in which 87.50%, 75%, 71.43%, and 0% of the countries with monotonically increasing, unimodal, U-shaped and monotonically decreasing polity failure rates, respectively, have high level of state fragility indices. The quasi-U-shape relationship between average polity duration and regime types corroborates historical precedents and explains the stability of the autocracies and democracies.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Emerging media and press freedoms as determinants of nonviolent and violent political conflicts, 1990–2006

© 2016, © The Author(s) 2016. Using aggregate-level data, this study compares instances of intrastate political conflict that occurred in both nonviolent and violent forms. Specifically, analyses presented in this study examine the relationships that exist between diffusion rates of emerging media and enhanced press freedoms in countries that experienced differing types of conflicts from 1990 through 2006. Through a series of analytic models, the results observed here indicate that higher levels of emerging media and press freedoms are better predictors of nonviolent—as opposed to violent—conflict. Findings from this study thus bridge an important gap in the literature between communication and political science research in establishing linkages between emerging media technologies and press freedoms and their interconnections with nonviolent and violent political conflict. Implications for related interdisciplinary fields are discussed

What explains ethnic organizational violence? Evidence from Eastern Europe and Russia

Why do some ethnopolitical organizations use violence? Research on substate violence often uses the state level of analysis, or only analyzes groups that are already violent. Using a resource mobilization framework drawn from a broad literature, we test hypotheses with new data on hundreds of violent and non-violent ethnopolitical organizations in Eastern Europe and Russia. Our study finds interorganizational competition, state repression and strong group leadership associated with organizational violence. Lack of popularity and holding territory are also associated with violence. We do not find social service provision positively related to violence, which contrasts with research on the Middle East

The social psychology of protest

Social psychological research has taught us a lot about why people protest. This article provides a theoretical and empirical overview. Discussed are grievances, efficacy, identification, emotions and social embeddedness, followed by the most recent approaches, which combine these concepts into dual pathway models. Finally, two future directions are discussed: (1) to shed light on the paradox of persistent participation, and (2) to clarify how perceptions of sociopolitical context affects protest participation. © The Author(s) 2013

Advances in Relative Deprivation Theory and Research

© 2015 Springer Science+Business Media New York The focus of this special issue is relative deprivation (RD): the judgment that one or one’s group is worse off compared to some standard accompanied by feelings of anger and resentment. This collection of seven papers demonstrates the range of the new thinking and research about RD, and they include data from an impressive variety of participants—including Canadians (both French- and English-speakers), Dutch, the Maoris of New Zealand, Mongols, Singaporeans, and South Africans (both Blacks and Whites). These seven papers show that if RD, and its counterpart, relative gratification, are defined carefully, at the right level of analysis and employed within larger theoretical models, the concept offers invaluable insight to how people respond to often dramatic changes in their objective circumstances

The Great American Crime Decline : Possible Explanations

This chapter examines the most important features of the crime decline in the United States during the 1990s-2010s but also takes a broader look at the violence declines of the last three centuries. The author argues that violent and property crime trends might have diverged in the 1990s, with property crimes increasingly happening in the online sphere and thus traditional property crime statistics not being reflective of the full picture. An important distinction is made between ‘contact crimes’ and crimes that do not require a victim and offender to be present in the same physical space. Contrary to the uncertainties engendered by property crime, the declines in violent (‘contact’) crime are rather general, and have been happening not only across all demographic and geographic categories within the United States but also throughout the developed world. An analysis of research literature on crime trends has identified twenty-four different explanations for the crime drop. Each one of them is briefly outlined and examined in terms of conceptual clarity and empirical support. Nine crime decline explanations are highlighted as the most promising ones. The majority of these promising explanations, being relative newcomers in the crime trends literature, have not been subjected to sufficient empirical scrutiny yet, and thus require further research. One potentially fruitful avenue for future studies is to examine the association of the most promising crime decline explanations with improvements in self-control

Post-mortem volatiles of vertebrate tissue

Volatile emission during vertebrate decay is a complex process that is understood incompletely. It depends on many factors. The main factor is the metabolism of the microbial species present inside and on the vertebrate. In this review, we combine the results from studies on volatile organic compounds (VOCs) detected during this decay process and those on the biochemical formation of VOCs in order to improve our understanding of the decay process. Micro-organisms are the main producers of VOCs, which are by- or end-products of microbial metabolism. Many microbes are already present inside and on a vertebrate, and these can initiate microbial decay. In addition, micro-organisms from the environment colonize the cadaver. The composition of microbial communities is complex, and communities of different species interact with each other in succession. In comparison to the complexity of the decay process, the resulting volatile pattern does show some consistency. Therefore, the possibility of an existence of a time-dependent core volatile pattern, which could be used for applications in areas such as forensics or food science, is discussed. Possible microbial interactions that might alter the process of decay are highlighted