Are entrepreneurs' forecasts of economic indicators biased?

Insight into the investment behaviour of firms is central in understanding economic dynamics. A critical question, however, is whether firms provide sufficiently reliable data to enable them to make plausible forecasts at the meso (regional or sectoral) level. This paper analyses Dutch investment forecasts at different levels of aggregation. The central research question is whether entrepreneurs, individually or as a group, make systematic errors in their investment forecasts. A statistical test reveals that investment forecasts are not biased at the aggregated (regional and sectoral) level. At the micro level, however, there is a significant bias. Hence, using aggregated (regional and sectoral) data to test the lack of bias (unbiasedness) of forecasts may lead to the wrong conclusions. Moreover, aggregated investment forecasts may then be an inappropriate source for policy recommendations, despite their seemingly high reliability. This finding may in principle be valid for many European countries, since data collection on investment is organized in similar ways throughout Europe

An Industry Perspective on Canadian Patients\u27 Involvement in Medical Tourism: Implications for Public Health

Background: The medical tourism industry, which assists patients with accessing non-emergency medical careabroad, has grown rapidly in recent years. A lack of reliable data about medical tourism makes it difficult to createpolicy, health system, and public health responses to address the associated risks and shortcomings, such as spreadof infectious diseases, associated with this industry. This article addresses this knowledge gap by analyzinginterviews conducted with Canadian medical tourism facilitators in order to understand Canadian patients’involvement in medical tourism and the implications of this involvement for public health. Methods: Semi-structured phone interviews were conducted with 12 medical facilitators from 10 companies in2010. An exhaustive recruitment strategy was used to identify interviewees. Questions focused on businessdimensions, information exchange, medical tourists’ decision-making, and facilitators’ roles in medical tourism.Thematic analysis was undertaken following data collection.Results: Facilitators helped their Canadian clients travel to 11 different countries. Estimates of the number ofclients sent abroad annually varied due to demand factors. Facilitators commonly worked with medical touristsaged between 40 and 60 from a variety of socio-economic backgrounds who faced a number of potential barriersincluding affordability, fear of the unfamiliar, and lack of confidence. Medical tourists who chose not to usefacilitators’ services were thought to be interested in saving money or have cultural/familial connections to thedestination country. Canadian doctors were commonly identified as barriers to securing clients. Conclusions: No effective Canadian public health response to medical tourism can treat medical tourists as aunified group with similar motivations for engaging in medical tourism and choosing similar mechanisms fordoing so. This situation may be echoed in other countries with patients seeking care abroad. Therefore, a call for acomprehensive public health response to medical tourism and its effects should be coupled with a clearunderstanding that medical tourism is a highly diverse practice. This response must also acknowledge facilitators asimportant stakeholders in medical tourism

Mobile banking in the government-to-person payment sector for financial inclusion in Pakistan

Whilst there have been growing interest and efforts by governments in developing countries to disburse digital government-to-person (G2P) payments to promote financial inclusion, the role of mobile banking in the receipt of social cash remains under-researched. Through an interpretive case study of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) in Pakistan, this paper applies Orlikowski’s Duality of Technology that critically examines mobile banking usage by women beneficiaries and technology's effects on the institutional properties of their households. Qualitative data were collected through semi-structured interviews from participants located in Pakistan. The findings highlighted that mobile banking enabled women to receive the full amount of grants, securely and conveniently, from agents. However, mobile banking imposed human, socio-economic and technological constraints which restricted women's access to and usage of financial services that limited financial inclusion. Women were socially and politically empowered, thereby, social inclusion was transformative. This paper theoretically contributes to the Duality of Technology framework that was deterministic for women beneficiaries. The study accentuates the redesign of mobile banking to match women's capabilities, and imparting financial and digital training to them. Also, the provision of a range of financial resources to beneficiaries may steer micro-entrepreneurial activities to advance the inclusion agenda in Pakistan

'Vacation for your teeth' - dental tourists in Hungary from the perspective of Hungarian dentists

Background Hungary has become a popular destination for foreign patients in the last two decades, particularly in dental care. Since 2008, increasing prices in Western Europe coupled with Hungary's accessibility and availability of dental treatment, has meant the country has become a leader in 'dental tourism'. As the quality of care in Hungary is high and prices are more affordable than in Western Europe, and due to the freedom of movement of people, services and goods within the EU, patient flow into Hungary has increased progressively.Objectives The aim of this article is to provide comprehensive empirical evidence from the perspective of a recipient country in dental tourism.Methods A questionnaire survey was conducted among Hungarian dentists (n = 273). Qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with representatives of dental professional bodies (n = 10). Both research methods aimed to elicit dentists' views on the presence of dental tourism - particularly the push and pull factors (for example, source countries, competitors, information sources, patient motivation).Results The findings show that there are several reasons why Hungary could maintain a leading position in dental tourism. First, the cost/benefit ratio is outstanding. The affordable price and value for money were already recognised in the early 1990s and were appreciated even before Hungary joined the EU. Secondly, the high quality of Hungary's dental profession: a) dental professionals in Hungary are well-qualified dental practitioners who have received high level dental training; b) dental professional standards are up-to-date and often supervised; c) in Hungary dental technology, the quality of materials and equipment used in dental practices is of European level quality. The rate of complications in dental care is around 5%, similar to other European countries. Finally, previous treatment experiences are positive and patient satisfaction levels are high. More and more patients seek care in Hungary, and more and more patients state that they would be willing to return for further treatment in the future