Amundsen Sea Embayment ice-sheet mass-loss predictions to 2050 calibrated using observations of velocity and elevation change

Mass loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a major contributor to global sea-level rise (SLR) and has been increasing over recent decades. Predictions of future SLR are increasingly modelled using ensembles of simulations within which model parameters and external forcings are varied within credible ranges. Accurately reporting the uncertainty associated with these predictions is crucial in enabling effective planning for, and construction of defences against, rising sea levels. Calibrating model simulations against current observations of ice-sheet behaviour enables the uncertainty to be reduced. Here we calibrate an ensemble of BISICLES ice-sheet model simulations of ice loss from the Amundsen Sea Embayment using remotely sensed observations of surface elevation and ice speed. Each calibration type is shown to be capable of reducing the 90% credibility bounds of predicted contributions to SLR by 34 and 43% respectively

Mapping Antarctic crevasses and their evolution with deep learning applied to satellite radar imagery

The fracturing of glaciers and ice shelves in Antarctica influences their dynamics and stability. Hence, data on the evolving distribution of crevasses are required to better understand the evolution of the ice sheet, though such data have traditionally been difficult and time-consuming to generate. Here, we present an automated method of mapping crevasses on grounded and floating ice with the application of convolutional neural networks to Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar backscatter data. We apply this method across Antarctica to images acquired between 2015 and 2022, producing a 7.5-year record of composite fracture maps at monthly intervals and 50 m spatial resolution and showing the distribution of crevasses around the majority of the ice sheet margin. We develop a method of quantifying changes to the density of ice shelf fractures using a time series of crevasse maps and show increases in crevassing on Thwaites and Pine Island ice shelves over the observational period, with observed changes elsewhere in the Amundsen Sea dominated by the advection of existing crevasses. Using stress fields computed using the BISICLES ice sheet model, we show that much of this structural change has occurred in buttressing regions of these ice shelves, indicating a recent and ongoing link between fracturing and the developing dynamics of the Amundsen Sea sector

The effect of landfast sea ice buttressing on ice dynamic speedup in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica

We observe the evacuation of 11-year-old landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment on the East Antarctic Peninsula in January 2022, which was in part triggered by warm atmospheric conditions and strong offshore winds. This evacuation of sea ice was closely followed by major changes in the calving behaviour and dynamics of a subset of the ocean-terminating glaciers in the region. We show using satellite measurements that, following a decade of gradual slow-down, Hektoria, Green, and Crane glaciers sped up by approximately 20%-50% between February and the end of 2022, each increasing in speed by more than 100ma-1. Circumstantially, this is attributable to their transition into tidewater glaciers following the loss of their ice shelves after the landfast sea ice evacuation. However, a question remains as to whether the landfast sea ice could have influenced the dynamics of these glaciers, or the stability of their ice shelves, through a buttressing effect akin to that of confined ice shelves on grounded ice streams. We show, with a series of diagnostic modelling experiments, that direct landfast sea ice buttressing had a negligible impact on the dynamics of the grounded ice streams. Furthermore, we suggest that the loss of landfast sea ice buttressing could have impacted the dynamics of the rheologically weak ice shelves, in turn diminishing their stability over time; however, the accompanying shifts in the distributions of resistive stress within the ice shelves would have been minor. This indicates that this loss of buttressing by landfast sea ice is likely to have been a secondary process in the ice shelf disaggregation compared to, for example, increased ocean swell or the drivers of the initial landfast sea ice disintegration