Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries

The aim of this paper is to analyze how the primary government balance in Central and Eastern European countries reacts in the short term, in order to assess fiscal sustainability in the long run. For the purpose of this study, a fiscal reaction function is used. Given the different orders of integration of the variables involved in the model, modified forms of the fiscal reaction function are considered. The results show that for Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, and Lithuania fiscal policy reacts as expected – in the sense that governments have the ability to run a primary surplus – in the short term. This action makes fiscal sustainability easier to achieve in the long run. On the other hand, for Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, sustainable fiscal policy will be more difficult to attain given the opposite response of governments to public debt shocks. In these countries, severe fiscal adjustments should be made in order to reach fiscal sustainability in the long run.fiscal sustainability, fiscal reaction function, primary balance, public debt, budget balance

Developing the Management Competencies for Getting a Competitive Position in the Organic Food Market

Although almost any conference tackles the issue of organic foods, we consider that this article does not fit into normal patterns of research. Our paper proposes a complex analysis in the field of organic food products. It also highlights the need of developing new competences of managers and marketers in analysing market for getting a competitive position on it. The method used is the Six Thinking Hats, devised by Edward de Bono. This method appeals to the driving creative thinking; it can be applied in almost any field of analysis. The outcomes show that, using creative thinking, the leaders develop new competences which enable them to better analyse organic food market and to identify and gain competitive positions on it.management competencies, organic food, six hats method, creative thinking, leaders, competitive position.

The Development of the Romanian Capital Market: Evidences on Information Efficiency

The Romanian capital market has considerably grown in the last decade. This study reveals new evidences regarding informational efficiency of this market. Applying Multiple Variance Ratio test to random walk hypothesis, assuming, on the one hand homoskedasticity, and on the other hand heteroskedasticity, it was found that for most of the stock prices the random walk hypothesis cannot be rejected. Consequently, the returns are not predictable by using the series of historical returns. Based on these results, there are not enough reasons to reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis in its weak form.information, capital markets, market efficiency, random walk, predictability of returns, Romania

Debt Sustainability Issues in the Central and Eastern European Countries

Bökemeier B, Stoian A. Debt Sustainability Issues in the Central and Eastern European Countries. Working Papers in Economics and Management. Vol 07-2016. Bielefeld: Bielefeld University, Department of Business Administration and Economics; 2016.The aim of this study is to investigate debt sustainability in ten Central and Eastern European countries over 1997-2013. Following Burger (2012), we calculate the stabilized debt using the estimates of a fiscal reaction function for a balanced panel with fixed effects. Comparing the stabilized, the effective debt ratios and the historical averages, we can assess debt sustainability in short and in long run. We find that current debt ratio as of 2015 for Bulgaria and Romania is not sustainable. The debt dynamics of Bulgaria is stable whilst for Romania’s case the debt trajectory indicates unstable dynamics. As for historical averages of debt ratios, Bulgaria could encounter debt sustainability issues also in the long run

The validity of Wagner’s Law in Romania during 1995-2015

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth commonly known as Wagner’s law for one single Central and Eastern European country namely Romania. Using a dataset ranging from 1995 to 2015, we apply latest econometric time series techniques such as unit root test, Johansen cointegration and Granger causality test. The cointegration tests indicate support for Wagner’s hypothesis in all of its five versions, thus suggesting the existence of long-run relationship between government spending and national outcome. The causality tests show the absence of any short-run relationship from economic outcome to government expenditure in three out of five versions. However, taking into consideration that in its original formulation Wagner’s law explored the secular correlation between output and government commitments, we can state that the long run cointegration is more consistent with Adolph Wagner’s perspective

The Study of Public Debt. Which Are the Distinctions between the Emerging and Advanced Economies in the European Union?

The aim of our paper is to provide a comprehensive study of public debt in various aspects across the European Union,emphasizing the existing distinctions between the emerging and advanced economies in Europe. Using annual data ranging from 1995 to 2013 we develop investigation manifold. Firstly, we study the descriptive statistics of key variables affecting public debt dynamics. We found that the ex-communistcountries recorded lower public debt ratios, negative flow costs and primary deficits. By comparison, the advanced economies managed to run primary surpluses in order to balance larger public debt-to-GDP ratios and the positive flow cost. Secondly, using the accounting approach we analyzed the dynamics of public debt. The results indicated unstable dynamics for the cases of CzechRepublic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom. Then, employing a logit model with fixed effects, we also showed that running primary deficits is more likely to increase the probability of having unstable dynamics of public debt. Thirdly, we examined the distribution of the flow cost and revealed that there is an increased probability of extreme values which, in the case of large debt ratios, might lead to high debt burdens for the European countries. We also found that the uncertainty of the future debt burden is driven by the variability of the real GDP growth rate

Do Investors Listen to Fiscal Policy? – Study case Bucharest Stock Exchange

The aim of this paper is to examine whether information on fiscal policy includes in the stock prices in a way which is consistent with the Efficiency Market Hypothesis. We conduct our investigation for the Bucharest Stock Exchange which is one emerging stock market from Central and Eastern Europe. For the purpose of our study, we employ the methodology suggested by Darrat (1988). We analyse the influence of past fiscal policy on current stock market return using two distinct datasets comprising of quarterly and monthly data. The results indicate that when we do not control for the anticipated and unanticipated effects of fiscal policy, past lags of changes in the overall budget balance and in public debt-to-GDP ratio have a significant impact on stock market return and, thus, we fail in accepting the semi-strong form of the efficiency market hypothesis