Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system

Climate scientists have long emphasized the importance of climate tipping points like thawing permafrost, ice sheet disintegration, and changes in atmospheric circulation. Yet, save for a few fragmented studies, climate economics has either ignored them or represented them in highly stylized ways. We provide unified estimates of the economic impacts of all eight climate tipping points covered in the economic literature so far using a meta-analytic integrated assessment model (IAM) with a modular structure. The model includes national-level climate damages from rising temperatures and sea levels for 180 countries, calibrated on detailed econometric evidence and simulation modeling. Collectively, climate tipping points increase the social cost of carbon (SCC) by ∼25% in our main specification. The distribution is positively skewed, however. We estimate an ∼10% chance of climate tipping points more than doubling the SCC. Accordingly, climate tipping points increase global economic risk. A spatial analysis shows that they increase economic losses almost everywhere. The tipping points with the largest effects are dissociation of ocean methane hydrates and thawing permafrost. Most of our numbers are probable underestimates, given that some tipping points, tipping point interactions, and impact channels have not been covered in the literature so far; however, our method of structural meta-analysis means that future modeling of climate tipping points can be integrated with relative ease, and we present a reduced-form tipping points damage function that could be incorporated in other IAMs

Recommendations for improving the treatment of risk and uncertainty in economic estimates of climate impacts in the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report

Large discrepancies persist between projections of the physical impacts of climate change and economic damage estimates. These discrepancies increase with increasing global average temperature projections. Based on this observation, we recommend that in its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) improve its approach to the management of the uncertainties inherent in climate policy decisions. In particular, we suggest that the IPCC: (i) strengthen its focus on applications of decision-making under risk, uncertainty, and outright ambiguity; and (ii) estimate how the uncertainty itself affects its economic and financial cost estimates of climate damage and, ultimately, the optimal price for each ton of carbon dioxide released. Our hope is that by adopting these recommendations, AR6 will be able to resolve some of the documented inconsistencies in estimates of the physical and economic impacts of climate change and more effectively fulfill the IPCC’s mission to provide policy-makers with a robust and rigorous approach for assessing the potential future risks of climate change

Enhancing self-care adherence in patients with heart failure: a study protocol for developing a theory-based behaviour change intervention using the COM-B behaviour model (ACHIEVE study)

INTRODUCTION: Although international guidelines recommend self-care as an integral part of routine heart failure management, and despite evidence supporting the positive outcomes related to self-care, patients are frequently unable to adhere. Self-care can be modified through behaviour change interventions (BCIs). However, previous self-care interventions have shown limited success in improving adherence to self-care, because they were neither theory-based nor well defined, which precludes the identification of underlying causal mechanisms as well as reproducibility of the intervention. Thus, our aim is to develop an intervention manual that contains theory-based BCIs that are well-defined using eight descriptors proposed to describe BCIs in a standardised way. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: BCIs will be based on statements of findings derived through qualitative meta-summary techniques and a quantitative meta-analysis. These reviews will be used to extract factors (target behaviours) associated with self-care adherence/non-adherence. Extracted target behaviours will be mapped onto the ‘Capability, Opportunity, Motivation and Behaviour’ (COM-B) model to capture the underlying mechanisms involved. To develop approaches for change, the ‘Taxonomy of Behaviour Change Techniques’ will be used to allow effective mapping of the target behaviours onto established behaviour change techniques. Suggested BCIs will then be translated into locally relevant interventions using the Normalisation Process Theory to overcome the difficulties of implementing theoretically derived interventions into practice. Finally, a consensus development method will be employed to fine-tune the content and acceptability of the intervention manual to increase the likelihood of successfully piloting and implementing future BCIs into the German healthcare system. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been reviewed and approved by the Ethics Committee of the Medical Faculty of the Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Germany (Ref #: 2018-30). The results will be disseminated via peer-reviewed journal publications, conference presentations and stakeholder engagement activities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: DRKS00014855; Pre-results

Searching for carbon leaks in multinational companies

Does unilateral climate change policy cause companies to shift the location of production, thereby creating carbon leakage? In this paper, we analyse the effect of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on the geographical distribution of carbon emissions of multinational companies. The empirical evidence is based on unique data for the period 2007-2014 from the Carbon Disclosure Project, which tracks emissions of multinational businesses by geographical region. Because they al-ready operate from multiple locations, multinational firms should be the most prone to carbon leakage. Our data includes regional emissions of 1,122 companies, of which 261 are subject to EU ETS regulation. We find no evidence that the EU ETS has led to a displacement of carbon emissions from Europe towards the rest of the world, including in countries with no climate policy in place and within energy-intensive companies. A large number of robustness checks confirm this finding. Overall, the paper suggests that modest differences in carbon prices between countries do not induce carbon leakage

Heart failure therapy in diabetic patients-comparison with the recent ESC/EASD guideline

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To assess heart failure therapies in diabetic patients with preserved as compared to impaired systolic ventricular function.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>3304 patients with heart failure from 9 different studies were included (mean age 63 ± 14 years); out of these, 711 subjects had preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (≥ 50%) and 994 patients in the whole cohort suffered from diabetes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority (>90%) of heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction (SHF) and diabetes were treated with an ACE inhibitor (ACEi) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) or with beta-blockers. By contrast, patients with diabetes and preserved ejection fraction (HFNEF) were less likely to receive these substance classes (p < 0.001) and had a worse blood pressure control (p < 0.001). In comparison to patients without diabetes, the probability to receive these therapies was increased in diabetic HFNEF patients (p < 0.001), but not in diabetic SHF patients. Aldosterone receptor blockers were given more often to diabetic patients with reduced ejection fraction (p < 0.001), and the presence and severity of diabetes decreased the probability to receive this substance class, irrespective of renal function.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Diabetic patients with HFNEF received less heart failure medication and showed a poorer control of blood pressure as compared to diabetic patients with SHF. SHF patients with diabetes were less likely to receive aldosterone receptor blocker therapy, irrespective of renal function.</p

e-Skills: The International dimension and the Impact of Globalisation - Final Report 2014

In today’s increasingly knowledge-based economies, new information and communication technologies are a key engine for growth fuelled by the innovative ideas of highly - skilled workers. However, obtaining adequate quantities of employees with the necessary e-skills is a challenge. This is a growing international problem with many countries having an insufficient numbers of workers with the right e-Skills. For example: Australia: “Even though there’s 10,000 jobs a year created in IT, there are only 4500 students studying IT at university, and not all of them graduate” (Talevski and Osman, 2013). Brazil: “Brazil’s ICT sector requires about 78,000 [new] people by 2014. But, according to Brasscom, there are only 33,000 youths studying ICT related courses in the country” (Ammachchi, 2012). Canada: “It is widely acknowledged that it is becoming inc reasingly difficult to recruit for a variety of critical ICT occupations –from entry level to seasoned” (Ticoll and Nordicity, 2012). Europe: It is estimated that there will be an e-skills gap within Europe of up to 900,000 (main forecast scenario) ICT pr actitioners by 2020” (Empirica, 2014). Japan: It is reported that 80% of IT and user companies report an e-skills shortage (IPA, IT HR White Paper, 2013) United States: “Unlike the fiscal cliff where we are still peering over the edge, we careened over the “IT Skills Cliff” some years ago as our economy digitalized, mobilized and further “technologized”, and our IT skilled labour supply failed to keep up” (Miano, 2013)