Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one mechanism is slightly ironic: in trying to update optimally, Bayesian agents overweight information of which they over-estimate the precision and underweight in the opposite case. This causes overall an over-estimation of the precision of the final estimate, which tends to increase as agents get more data.

Authority versus Persuasion

This paper studies a principal's trade-off between using persuasion versus using interpersonal authority to get the agent to 'do the right thing' from the principal's perspective (when the principal and agent openly disagree on the right course of action). It shows that persuasion and authority are complements at low levels of effectiveness but substitutes at high levels. Furthermore, the principal will rely more on persuasion when agent motivation is more important for the execution of the project, when the agent has strong intrinsic or extrinsic incentives, and, for a wide range of settings, when the principal is more confident about the right course of action.

Culture Clash: The Costs and Benefits of Homogeneity

This paper develops an economic theory of the costs and benefits of corporate culture -- in the sense of shared beliefs and values -- in order to study the effects of 'culture clash' in mergers and acquisitions. I first use a simple analytical framework to show that shared beliefs lead to more delegation, less monitoring, higher utility (or satisfaction), higher execution effort (or motivation), faster coordination, less influence activities, and more communication, but also to less experimentation and less information collection. When two firms that are each internally homogenous but different from each other, merge, the above results translate to specific predictions how the change in homogeneity will affect firm behavior. The paper's predictions can also serve more in general as a test for the theory of culture as homogeneity of beliefs.

Prilog flori lišaja Hrvatske

121 taxa of lichens are reported from Croatia. Four taxa are new to the NW Balkans, viz. Caloplaca velana var. placidia, Lecanora sienae, Lepraria lobificans, and Petractis luetkemuelleri. One species, viz. Chrysotrix candelaris, is new to Croatia. Eight taxa, including Phaeophyscia insignis, are new to the Croatian Littoral (H. Pr.), and nine taxa, including Ochrolechia turneri and Physconia servitii, are new to Istria.Za područje Hrvatske autori navode 121 svojtu lišaja. Četiri svojte su nove za sjeverozapadni dio Balkanskog poluotoka (Caloplaca velana var. placidia, Lecanora sienae, Lepraria lobificans i Petractis luetkemuelleri). Jedna vrsta (Cbysotrix candelaris) je nova za Hrvatsku. Osam svojti, uključujući Pkaeophyscia insignis, nove su za kvarnersko primorje, a devet svojti, uključujući Ochrolechia turneri i Physconia servitii, nove su za Istru

Lichens from one locality at Frederikshåbs Isblink and two localities in the Fiskenæsset area, South West Greenland

A total of 156 taxa of lichens are reported from one locality near Frederikshåbs Isblink and two localities north and east of Fiskenæsset in South West Greenland. 23 taxa are new to the Frederikshåb and Fiskenæsset region. Geology, climate and vegetation of the three localities are briefly treated.

A contribution to the lichen flora of Iceland

A total of 202 taxa of lichens are reported from nine localities in Iceland. 12 lichens are new to Iceland, viz. Acarospora rhizobola, Caloplaca fraudans, Candelariella dispersa, C. terrigena, C. xanthostigma, Lecanora argopholis, L. atromarginata, Lecidella scabra, Lichenomphalia alpina, Rhizocarpon lecanorinum, R. pusillum and Stereocaulon symphycheilum. Geology, climate and vegetation of the investigation area are briefly treated.

Lichens from Peary Land, North Greenland

A total of 81 taxa of lichens are reported from Peary Land and adjacent areas in North Greenland. Six taxa are new to Peary Land.

Lichens from Qaanaaq and Siorapaluk, North West Greenland

A total of 172 taxa of lichens are reported from Qaanaaq and Siorapaluk in North West Greenland. Geology and climate of the two localities are briefly treated.